new earth, but they end, as a rule, with some modest
contribution to the question of contraband. No Con-
ference can ensure peace in our time, since the forces
which make war are independent of the legal conventions
of society, and would crash through any prohibitive
code like Alnaschar's basket. Hence, while there is
no harm in large pacific ideals, it is well in any proposal
to keep the practical possibiUties clearly in view.
These possibihties are wide and important, if properly
understood, and President Roosevelt has a great
opportunity of making his proposed second Peace
Conference of real service to the world. If it refuses
to dissipate its energies in professions of a vague
brotherly love, and grapples with that very practical
question — -how war, which is inevitable, can be restricted
in its area and ameliorated in its conditions — it will
deserve well of humanity. . . .
" If President Roosevelt insists that his Conference
shall confine itself to practical questions, it will command
the confidence of plain men everywhere, and, not being
encumbered with imi)ossil)le idealisms, should get through
a great deal of business. The Hague Conference, having
too wide a survey, left many questions unsettled,
and the war in the Far East has brought into relief
many of the uncertainties to which both neutrals and
belligerents are subject. We propose to discuss a few
122 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
of the points on which it is essential to have an inter-
national ruling, and, if possible, an International
Executive."
Surely an efficient International Executive ought to be
willing and able to ensure peace.
Even if President Roosevelt's invitation should after all
come to nothing, the official recognition it has given to the
most practical and influential Peace Association, the Inter-
Parliamentary Union, must greatly enhance its prestige
and importance. Mr. Hay in his despatch quoted above
eulogises this Union with sympathetic enthusiasm as follows :
" Among the movements which prepared the minds
of Governments for an accord in the direction of assured
peace among men, a high place may fittingly be given
to that set on foot by the Inter-Parliamentary Union.
From its origin in the suggestions of a member of the
British House of Commons, in 1888, it developed until
its membership included large numbers of delegates
from the Parliaments of principal nations, pledged to
exert their influence toward the conclusion of Treaties
of Arbitration between nations and toward the accom-
plishment of peace. Its annual conferences have notably
advanced the high purposes it sought to realise. Not
only have many International Treaties of Arbitration
been concluded, but, in the Conference held in Holland
in 1894, the memorable declaration in favour of a
Permanent Court of Arlntration was a forerunner of
the most important achievement of the Peace Conference
of the Hague in 1899.
" The annual Conference of the Inter-Parliamentary
Union was held this year at St. Louis, in appropriate
connection with the World's Fair. Its dehberations were
marked by the same noble devotion to the cause of peace
and the welfare of humanity which had inspired its
former meetings. By the unanimous vote of delegates,
active or retired members of the American Congress
and of every Parliament in Europe, with two exceptions,
the following resolution was adopted : — •
SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE, 1 23
" Whereas enlightened pubhc opinion and modern
civiUsation ahke demand that differences between
nations should be adjudicated and settled in the same
manner as disputes between individuals are adjudicated
— namely, by the arbitrament of Courts in accordance
with recognised principles of law — this Conference
requests the several Governments of the world to send
delegates to an International Conference, to be held
at a time and place to be agreed upon by them, for
the purpose of considering : i. The questions for the
consideration of which the Conference at The Hague
expressed a wish that a future Conference be called.
2. The negotiation of arbitration treaties between the
nations represented at the Conference to be convened.
3. The advisability of establishing an International
Congress, to convene periodically for the discussion
of International questions.
" And this Conference respectfully and cordially
requests the President of the United States to invite
all the nations to send representatives to such a Con-
ference.
" On September 24 ult. these resolutions were
presented to the President by a numerous deputation
of the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The President
accepted the charge offered to him, feeling it to be most
appropriate that the Executive of the nation which had
welcomed the Conference to its hospitality should give
voice to its impressive utterances in a cause which the
American Government and people hold dear. He
announced that he would at an early day invite the other
nations, parties to the Hague Convention, to reassemble
with a view to {pushing forward toward completion the
work already begun at the Hague, l)y considering the
questions which the first Conference had left unsettled
with the express provision that there should l^c a second
Conference."
That these remarkable words caused many to revise
their views on enthusiasts in the cause of Peace is
124 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
suggested by the appended extract from the Inquirer,
October 22, 1904 : —
" The Boston International Peace Congress is quite
distinct in organisation from the Conference of the
International Parliamentary Union recently held at
St. Louis. It began on October 2, with sermons in the
various churches, and appears to have been largely
attended, and by people of influence. Those who were
present seemed convinced that ])eace principles are
gaining ground, and are being recognised as wise, prudent,
practical, and no longer held generally to be the property
of sentimentalists and cranks. With the multitude
of conferences in these days, addresses of welcome and
complimentary replies might be cut short with advantage
in America as elsewhere. But after these were over,
good and useful business, we are informed, was done.
One who was at the Boston conference remarks on the
considerable attendance of working men, of men of
business, and of Jews."
The Inter-Parliamentary Union and all Societies interested
in the development of International Law would find in the
permanent Court of my scheme a legislative body ready to
give effect to the practicable conclusions at which they from
time to time arrived.
Those who object to or despair of the peace movement
see in the great growth of armaments and in particular of
navies since the Hague Conference evidence of the exuberance
of the war spirit and its preponderance in the councils
of the nations. But they forget that colonies and dependencies
with coast fines must be defended by the mother country's
or suzerain's navy, and that France, Germany, and the L^nited
States, not to mention Great Britain and other Powers,
have of late years considerably extended their outlying
responsibifities, and also that the continual progress of
destructive and defensive science compels nations to keep
replacing the obsolete armaments of yesterday by the more
costly armaments of to-day. Any Opposition which got into
power now by inveighing against profuse expenditure on
SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE. 125
armaments would find the amount of outlay it had condemned
insufftcient for the exigencies of its own administration.
Considering the extent and dispersion of the Empire, and
the fact that her coast hues exceed in mileage at least four
times the miles of coast pertaining to any other Power, the
British Navy is of perilously moderate dimensions.
Of course war vessels primarily intended to safeguard
outlying possessions can be used for attack, and the said
possessions can serve as naval bases ; so that the colonial
expansion of great Powers directly leads to a general increase
of naval estabhshments as a matter of obhgatory precaution.
Powers which were formerly separated by sea or oceans
have within living memory become in various parts of the
world conterminous or near neighbours. Japan has advanced
to the position of a Great Power in the Pacific and near the
Great Eastern Archipelago, in which Germany and the United
States have acquired interests and possessions. France has
largely increased her possessions in and on the Indian Ocean
and the Pacific. Italy and Germany have acquired territory
and interests in East Africa, and Germany also in the Great
Eastern Archipelago and in China, while before the Russo-
Japanese war Russia was a naval Power on the Pacific.
During the same period British possessions in Africa and to
the East of Europe and Africa have received enormous
additions.
Consequently a greater increase in the extent and cost of
the navy of Great Britain than has actually been made during
the last quarter of a century can be fully accounted for without
assuming as causes aggressiveness or a militant spirit. The
growth of our mercantile marine even without expansion
of Empire would have involved similar results.
These considerations apply more or less to other
Powers.
The question emerges whether some International system
of self-denying ordinances as to extensions of territory and
influence might not prove to be a necessary preliminary to
checking the progressive increase of armaments. This
question might form : —
126 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
I. One of the subjects for discussion by the Second Hague
Conference.
Other points to be suggested besides those mentioned by
Mr. Hay are : —
n. The guaranteeing by all the Signatory Powers of the
complete independence of the State of the Netherlands and
the secure enjoyment by that State of all its present
possessions, rights, and interests in any part of the world on
consideration of the said State pledging itself never to form
alliance or enter into preferential treaty with any other Power
or group of Powers and never to alienate any of its possessions,
rights, or interests, while the International guarantee of
independence and security shall remain in force.*
HI. Provision for the development of International Law
as well as its elucidation and codification.
IV. The discouragement of Foreign War Loans.
V. The prevention of cruelty to members of uncivilised
races.
VI. The repudiation of religious intolerance and racial
hatred, t
VII. Agreement as to the restriction of the routes
of aeronautic contrivances of which the course can be
controlled.
VIII. Agreement as to restrictions of the use of
submarines.
IX. Agreement as to the legal obligation of punctual
performance of promises made by a Power.
X. Agreement that undue delay in negotiations may be
virtually a declaration of war.
* Some such arrangement is necessary to secure the safety of
the archives and other property of the Permanent Court of
Arbitration, and to enable it to carry on its beneficent work
without interruption.
The independence and safety of Holland are at present guaranteed
by " The European Powers," but in the future the guarantee ought
to be International in as wide a sense as possible.
t The refusal in Russia of passports to American citizens of Jewish
nationaUty is a disgrace to humanity and a danger to the maintenance
of peace.
SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE. 1 27
XT. Agreement that all the articles of existent Treaties
and Conventions shall remain in force unless annulled by an
International Commission of Inquiry.
XIL Revision of the Acts of the Hague Conference
of 1899.
XIII. Assertion of the abstract principle that general
peace is an international right.
XIV. x\greement to submit all disputes to Arbitration
or an International Commission of Inquiry before appealing
to arms.
XV. Agreement to check as much as possible supply of
arms to dependent States.
The subjoined extract from the Times, November 12,
1904, encourages the hope that the next Conference may
venture to grapple with questions of primary importance.
" There were three broad general questions affecting
the right and justice of the relations between sovereign
States which were left over for future consideration in
1899. The first and most comprehensive was that of the
rights and duties of neutrals. Others were the inviola-
bility of private property in naval warfare, and the
bombardment of ports, towns, and villages by a naval
force. These reserved questions, it may be remembered,
were comprised among what were called the vocux
or ' pious wishes ' of the Hague Conference. They
dealt mainly with suggestions which had been made in
the original Russian programme, but which it was
not found possible to embody in actual conventions.
Thus the resolutions containing the last two j^roposals
which are now revived — those concerning naval bombard-
ment and private ])roperty in maritime warfare —
were not accepted in 1899 by Great Britain. Besides
restating these questions, Mr. Hay commends to the
attention of the Powers as a possibly desirable step the
consideration of some form of procedure by which
non-signatory States may become adhering parties
to the Hague Convention. There is also, it may be noted,
one other subject which bulked very large at the opening of
128 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
the first Hague Conference, but which is not specifically
alluded to by Mr. Hay. That is the proposal for a
reduction of armaments, which, after filling the chief
place in the original programme put forward by Russia,
survived only in the form of a vague and abstract aspira-
tion among the ' pious wishes.' It might, perhaps,
as Mr. Edmund Robertson suggests in the letter we
print from him to-day, be discussed a second time with
more effectual results."
CHAPTER IX.
WHAT MAKES FOR PEACE.
The superficial observer, taking a casual survey of
miscellaneous estimates of the prospects of general peace,
is bewildered by an apparently inextricable tangle of
perplexities and contradictions. Russia and Japan both
announced for his benefit before the war in the East that
they were going to fight, if it came to fighting, for the sake
of peace ; but the Daily News tells him that peace is to be
kept, not to be fought for, and that Russia aims at Imperial
conquest.
" No wonder that even in Russia, intoxicated as her
officials are with the dreams of Imperial conquest, the
war is now unpopular. For the rest of the world the
conflict in the Far East is an object lesson, the meaning
of which no one can escape. Whatever moral sanctions
may have been claimed for armies and navies, now at
last the purpose of armies and the purpose of navies
is shown to be crime — crime unrelieved by any noble
compensation — crime involving not only the parties
to its perpetration, but nations wholly innocent of the
K
130 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
slightest quarrel with one another. Powers which go
to war sin not only against themselves, but against the
whole commonwealth of races. Human obligations are
not defined by frontiers. Highest of those obligations
is the duty of keeping the peace.
"It is thus no wonder that now at last the nations
of the world are displaying a real interest in the hitherto
academic question of arbitration." — November i, 1904.
He reads in a report of the German Chancellor Count von
Billow's speech to the Reichstag, December 5, 1904, that the
German Empire's expenditure on the Army and Navy is
an insurance premium for the security of the German people ;
that the Count says : —
" I have every esteem for the French officers. But
if the House at the same time takes into consideration
the lust for revenge which still exists in France — Herr
Bebel's friends there will surely have informed him
thereof ; I need only recall the efforts M. Jaures has
made in this direction — it will be admitted that we too are
entitled to make provision for our own security. Do
not therefore say that we cannot provide the means
that we need for our safety, that is not logical. . . .
" That our fleet is intended only for defence is an
absolute fact. I cannot believe that any sensible people
wish or expect to see a war between Germany and Great
Britain. I hope that for all time, as far as human eye
can look forward, the best interest will be served by the
maintenance of our present friendly relations."
Several English journals, however, tell him that the French
people desire peace, and that Germany has sinister designs
on England. Indeed, Count von Biilow thought it worth
while to assure an Enghsh interviewer, Mr. Bashford, whose
impressions appeared in the Nineteenth Century, that Germany
was not arming against Great Britain. Then President
Roosevelt informs him that the only kind of peace which a
self-respecting nation can accept must be secured by a strong
army and navy, which implies that the sort of peace advocated
SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE. I3I
by the Daily News is as criminal as " the purpose of armies
and the purpose of navies." He reads further that the
intimacy and complexity of International intercourse make
any war a world-wide grievance, and yet that this intercourse
multiplies causes of friction between States. He may be
excused if he dismiss the subject as too difficult, and, becoming
indifferent to peace for its own sake, adopt a selfish
opportunism.
But in arbitration a means has been found for reducing
the number of differences, and nations as they come into
closer and more frequent contact with one another are gradually
acquiring the faculty of bearing friction with dignified patience.
It is much easier to hate the caricature of a foreigner which
we imagine or see in what is called a " comic " paper than to
hate the real individuals whom the caricature is supposed to
represent when we come to know them. Most people,
certainly those best worth knowing, improve on acquaintance.
" It is," says the Daily News, " a good thing that quarrels
should be settled by international litigation instead of by
bloodshed. But it would be still better to cultivate a spirit
which would render it less easy for quarrels to arise. There
is no middle path between good feeling and ill-feeling.
Nations which are not helping one another will usually hate
one another."
The characteristics which dispose sensible individuals
to desire peace are large-mindedness, love of justice, and
cosmopolitan philanthropy or charity, combined with
unselfish patriotism, virtues which are encouraged in persons
predisposed toward them by acquaintance with foreigners
who worthily represent their nation. The more numerous
such peace-lovers become, the less chance there will be of
international friction causing disputes.
There is no reason for doubting the sincerity of the
German Emperor and his Chancellor in their asseverations
that their intentions are peaceable and that Germany arms
in self-defence. Her commercial and colonial ambitions
render an increased navy necessary. But there is a war party
in Germany, as there is in most States and Federations, and
K2
132
.SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
circumstances may at some time increase its influence so
much that the means of defence shall be used for attack.
There are some Frenchmen no doubt who still indulge a lust
for revenge on Germany, and more who talk about it ; but
the majority of Frenchmen desire peace, and it is quite under-
stood that Count von Billow's apprehension of danger from
France is merely affected to facilitate the adoption of high
naval estimates. The French motor industry makes Germany
more secure from French attack than would several extra
battleships. It is not a mere coincidence that since 1814
Great Britain has been the most commercial State of Europe
and also the least implicated in European wars ; the only
instances being the Crimean war and the battle of Navarino
(in which France and Russia acted with Great Britain).
France and Germany have greatly amphfied their commercial
interests since the Franco-German war ; so that on the
analogy of Great Britain they may be expected to remain
peaceable neighbours.
As I believe that commercial intercourse makes for peace,
I give a table showing approximately the extent to which
Great Britain's commerce benefited other Powers in 1903.
The United Kingdom of
Amounts
in mill
ions and tenths
Great Britain and Irelanc
of millions.
trades
As Cu
stomer.
As Seller.
'ith United States
. . 118 out
of
303 '6
41
France
49
1 66 -8
23
Germany
•• 34-5 >.
249
34-5
, Holland
35
152
14
Russia
31
106-4
16
Belgium
.. 27-8 „
98-5
12 deer.
Argentina
19
44
8-6
Sweden and Norway
16
24-5
8-5
Spain
14
317
5
, Italy
3-4 deer
58-5
8-5
Turkey
5-8 „
13
57
, Chili
... 4-6 ..
—
3
Japan
2
29-5
4
Portugal
3-4 ..
6-9
2-1
Austria
2-S ,,
88
2-4
, British Pnss«ssioi>s'
•sp^'o^
.^A^
i+f'^-cmtefegi
Egypt
13
—
6-5
SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE. 1 33
Foreign trade with British possessions is not included in
the above table. The second column of figures gives the
total value of the exports from the several States.
Since 1880 the exports of
The United States have risen in value ;^ 100,000,000
Germany ,, ,, ,, ,, about ;^8o,ooo,ooo
United Kingdom ,, ,, ,, about ;^5 8, 000,000
France ;^3 1,000,000
Or vahie of United States' exports has risen 58%
,, Germany's ,, ,, ,, 55%
,, United Kingdom's „ „ 35%
,, France's ,, ,, ,, 22% (in spite of taxes
on raw materials)
A small digression is here excusable to point the significant
fact that during the last quarter of a century the increase
in the exports of the United Kingdom has not kept pace with
the natural increase of the population of England, which but
for excess of emigration over immigration would have been
statistically represented as amounting to about 40 per cent.
Besides community of commercial interests and traffic
and trade promoted by tourists and foreign residents, organised
social intercourse between various countries tends to smooth-
ness of international relations. Among a steadily rising number
of instances of mutual hospitaHty, interchange of visits
between bodies representing a class or profession arrest
attention. For instance, the excursion of French Deputies
to England last year, the assemblage of foreign members of
the Institute of International Law in Edinburgh, the visit
of foreign Professors of Jurisprudence to Cambridge University
a few years ago, the reception of representatives of British
Universities at festival celebrations in divers foreign Univer-
sities, the election of distinguished foreigners as honorary
members of national scientific and literary societies, the visit
of French physicians and surgeons to London last year, when
Dr. Butlin, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of London
University said " such visits would do more to ensure universal
peace than diplomacy." Then, again, representative bodies
of British working men have visited France and the United
States, and have returned with enlarged ideas full of enthusiasm
134 SAFEGUARDS FOR PEACE.
for their genial hosts. According to the Daily News,
November i, 1904, Sir Thomas Barclay attributes our recent
avoidance of war with Russia in part to such pleasant
associations.
" Sir Thomas Barclay, whose knighthood was a
recognition by the King of his services in promoting the
Anglo-French Agreement, thinks that a fitting celebration
would be the holding of a great exhibition representative
of the peaceful caUings of the two countries.
" ' France played a great and noble part in the recent
crisis,' said Sir Thomas to a Daily News representative
yesterday. ' Had it not been for the good feeling that
now exists between England and France, it is impossible to
say what would have happened. Certain sections of the
Press were inflaming public opinion by their talk about
ultimatums and threats of war. To France, I think, we
owe the preservation of peace. The good feehng between
the two countries is undoubtedly due first to the inter-
course brought about by the fraternising of men of trade,
and industry, and labour. Then by the fraternising
of King and President, and their respective Ministers,
Then by the fraternising of the Members of Parhament,
and of all kinds and classes of men who have since been
keeping the shuttle on the move.