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.1. J. 1'ROUDHON



LIBRARY of UNIVERSAL HISTORY

AND

POPULAR SCIENCE

CONTAINING

A RECORD OF THE HUMAN RACE FROM THE

EARLIEST HISTORICAL PERIOD TO THE PRESENT TIME;

EMBRACING A GENERAL SURVEY OF THE PROGRESS OF MANKIND

IN NATIONAL AND SOCIAL LIFE, CIVIL GOVERNMENT,

RELIGION, LITERATURE, SCIENCE AND ART

Complete in Twenty -five Volumes

THE TEXT SUPPLEMENTED AND EMBELLISHED BY MORE THAN SEVEN HUNDRED
PORTRAITS AND OTHER ILLUSTRATIONS. MAPS AND CHARTS

INTRODUCTION BY
HUBERT HOWE' BANCROFT

HISTORIAN

GEORGE EDWIN RINES

MANAGING EDITOR

Reviewed and Endorsed by Fifteen Professors in History and Educators in
American Universities, among whom are the following :



GEORGE EMORY FELLOWS, Ph.D.,
LL.D.

President, University of Maine

KEMP PLUMMER BATTLE, A.M.,

LL.D.
Professor of History, University of North Carolina

AMBROSE P. WINSTON, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor of Economics, Washington Uni-
versity

WILLIAM R. PERKINS

Professor of History, University of Iowa

REV. GEO. M. GRANT, D.D.

Late Principal of Queen's University, Kingston,
Ontario, Canada



MOSES COIT TYLER, A.M., Ph.D.

Late Professor of American History, Cornell Uni-
versity

ELISHA BENJAMIN ANDREWS, LL.D.,
D.D.

Chancellor, University of Nebraska

WILLIAM TORREY HARRIS, Ph.D.,
LL.D.

Formerly United States Commissioner of Education

JOHN HANSON THOMAS McPHER-
SON, Ph.D.

Professor of History, University of Georgia

RICHARD HEATH DABNEY. A.M.,
Ph.D.

Professor of History, University 01 Virginia



NEW YOPK AND CHICAGO

THE BANCROFT SOCIETY

1910



COPYRIGHT, 1900, IIY
WILLIAM S. BUYAN




LIBRARY OF UNIVERSAL HISTORY
AND POPULAR SCIENCE



Containing a record of the human race from the earliest his-
torical period to the present time. Embracing a general
survey of the progress of mankind in national and social life,
civil government, religion, literature science and art. : : :



Complete in TWENTY-FIVE MASSIVE VOLUMES



EDITORS IN CHIEF

GEORGE EDWIN RINES, Editor of Encyclopedia Americana

HUBERT HOWE BANCROFT, Author Bancroft History of the United States

WILLIAM S. BRYAN, Author of "Footprints of the World's History," "Americas War for Humanity,"
"Our Islands and Their People."

ISRAEL SMITH CLARE, Author of " Illustrated Universal History." Com-

plete Historical Compendium," "Unrivaled History of the World, " History of the British-Boer War,"
and Other Works; Also Author of the Series of Forty Historical Maps; Member of the Amer. His. Asso.

ADVISORY BOARD

JOHN TROWBRIDGE, Sc. D., Professor of Applied Science, Harvard University.

HENRY EMERY, A. M., Ph. D., Professor of Political Economy, Yale University.
GEORGE WILLIS BOTSFORD, A. M., Ph. D., Professor of Ancient History, Columbia University.

ALEXANDER T. ORMOND, Ph. D., Professor Philosophy, Princeston University.
JAMES H. BALDWIN, M. A., Ph. D., Hon. D. Sc. (Oxford), LL D. (Glasgow). Professor Phi.

losophy and Psychology, John Hopkins University.
MARSHAL S. BROWN, A. M., Professor History and Political Science, New York University.

GEORGE EMERY FELLOWS, Ph. D. LL. D., President University of Maine.
KEMP PLUMBER BATTLE, A. M. LL. D., Professor of History, University of North Carolina.

AMBROSE P. WINSTON, Ph. D., Assistant Professor Economics, Washington, University.
WILLIAM R. PERKINS, Professor History, University of Iowa.

REV. GEO. M. GRANT, D. D., Late Principal of Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
MOSES COIT TYLER, A. M., Ph. D., Late Professor of American History, Cornell University.

EL1SHA BENJAMIN ANDREWS, LL. D., D. D., Chancellor, University of Nebraska.
WILLIAM TORREY HARRIS, Ph. D., LL. D., Formerly United States Commissiner of Education.

JOHN HANSON THOMAS McPHERSON, Ph. D., Professor of History, University of Georgia.
RICHARD HE,.TH DABNEY, A. M., Ph. D., Professor of History, University of Virginia.



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225 Fifth Avenue, New York
San Francisco, Cal. Los Angeles, Cal.

010-12 Oscar Luring Bldg, 45 Kearny St. 341-42 San Fernando Bldg, 4th & Main Su.



PROBLEMS OF THE FUTURE



AND ESSAYS



BY



S. LAING



AUTHOR OF "MODERN SCIENCE AND MODERN THOUGHT,"
"A MODERN ZOROASTRIAN." ETC




NEW YORK:

THE HUMBOLDT LIBRARY ASSOCIATION



CONTENTS.



CHAPTER I.

SOLAR HEAT.

Difference between Astronomers and Geologists The former say twenty,
the latter two hundred millions of years Argument of Astronomers
Amount of Heat received from Sun How Supply kept up Meteorites
Gravity Method of Calculation Result: Supply of Heat cannot have
lasted more than ten to fifteen millions of years Case of Geologists
Progress of the Science Theological Theologic-Scientific Scientific
Uniformity of Conditions Proved by Fossil Remains By Temperature
and Atmosphere Assuming Uniformity, Time required Instances
Solent River Eocene Lake Lake of Geneva Coal Measures Geology
based on Facts Mathematical Conclusions on Theory If Heat comes
from Gravity, where does Gravity come from Gravity really unknown
Different Theories as to Solar Heat Lockyer and CrookesSun-spots
Magnetic Storms Conservation of Energy P&ge 9-

CHAPTER II.
WHAT THE UNIVERSE IS MADE OF.

Shooting Stars: their number, velocity, size Connection with Comets
Composition Spectra Meteorite Theory Genesis of Stars and Nebulae
Further stage of Theory Impact Theory Dark Suns in Space Tem-
perature of Visible Stars Their proper Motions New Stars Variable
Stars Facts better explained by Impact Theory Laplace's Theory
Based solely on Gravity Not inconsistent but insufficient Even
Impact Theory not last step Stony Masses made of Atoms What
are Atoms Chemical Elements Attempts to reduce them to one
Hydrogen Helium Mendelejoff 's Law Atoms Manufactured Articles
All of one Pattern Vortex Theory What behind Atoms The
Unknowable Page 25.

CHAPTER III.

CLIMATE.

Conflict between Geology and Astronomy Geology asserts Uniformity of
Climate until Recent Times Astronomy asserts Inclination of Earth's
Axis to be invariable, and therefore Climates necessary Evidence for
Warm and Uniform Climates Greenland Spitzbergen Impossible
under Existing Conditions Heat, Light, and Actinism Invariability of
Earth's Axis Causes of Higher and more Uniform Temperature Cool-
ing of the Earth More Heat from the Sun Warmer Regions of Space
More Carbonic-dioxide Would not explain Uniformity of Temperature
Excess of Oxygen Modification of Species Configuration of Sea and
Lan -K-Croll's Theory Displacement of Earth's Axis Inclination of
Axis of Planets and Moon Unsolved Problems of the Future. Page 35.

3



iv CONTENTS.

CHAPTER IV.

THE GLACIAL PERIOD.

Importance of Date of Glacial Period Its Bearing on Origin of Man Short
Date Theories Prestwich says 20,000, Lyell 200,000 Years Croll's
Theory Prestwich's Arguments Solar Heat Human Progress Shown
by Palaeolithic Remains Geological Evidence Advance of Greenland
Glaciers Denudation Erosion of Cliffs and Valleys Deposition Loess
Elevation and Depression of Land All show Immense Antiquity
Post-Glacial Period Prestwich says 8000 to 10,000 years Mellard Reade
60,000 His Reasons Inconsistent with Short Date Theories Causes
of Glacial Period Cooling of Earth Cold Regions of Space Change of
Earth's Axis More Vapor in Atmosphere Lyell's Theory, Different
Configuration of Sea and Land Conditions of Glaciation Problems
Pressing for Solution Poge 44-

CHAPTER V.

TERTIARY MAN.

Antiquity of Man Man part of Quaternary Fauna What this Implies
Historical and Neolithic Periods Palaeolithic Caves and River Gravels
Glacial and Inter Glacial Deposits Wide Distribution of Palaeolithic
Implements in Early Quaternary Deposits Origin of Species Evolution
and Migration Diversity of Human Types Objections to Tertiary Man
Specialization of Type Survival through Vicissitudes of Climate
Positive Evidence for St. Prest Thenay Tagus Valley Monte Aperto
Cuts in Bones of Balaeonotus Elephas Meridionalis and Halitherium
Auvergne Worked Flints in Pliocene Tuffs Castelnedolo Human
Bones in Pliocene Olmo Evidence from America Californian Aurif-
erous Gravels Tuolumne and Calaveras Skulls Age of Gravels
Skertchley's Stone Implements Brazilian Caves Pampaean Strata
Summary of Evidence , . Page 59.

CHAPTER VI.

THE MISSING LINK.

Human Origins Evolution or Miracle First Theories Miraculous Concep-
tion of Natural Law Law proved to be Universal in Inorganic World
Application to Life and Man Darwin and Evolution Struggle for Life
and Survival of the Fittest Confirmed by Discovery of Missing Links-
Professor Cope's Summary M. Gaudry Instances of Missing Links-
Bears and Dogs Horse Pedigree of the Horse from Palaeotherium and
Eohippus Appearance and Disappearance of Species Specialization
from Primitive Types Condylarthra Reptiles and Birds Links between
other Genera and Orders Marsupials and Mammals Monotremata
Ascidians and Fish Evolution of Individuals and Species from Primitive
Cell Question of Missing Links applied to Man Man and Ape Resem-
blances and Differences Specialization of Human Type For erect pos-
tureHow Man differs from Animals Mental and Moral Faculties
Language Tools Progress Mental Development Lines of Research
for Missing Links Inferior Races Fossil Remains Point in direction
of Tertiary Origin



CONTENTS. r

CHAPTER VII.

ANIMAL MAGNETISM AND SPIRITUALISM.

Binet and Fe"re"s Volume School of Salpetriere Dr. Braid Hypnotism
How Produced Effects of Lethargy Catalepsy Somnambulism
Hallucination Dreams Hypnotic Suggestion Instances of Visible
rendered Invisible Emotions Excited Acts Dictated Magnet Trance
Alternating Identity Thought Reading Clairvoyance Spiritualism
Slate Writing Scybert Commission All Gross Imposture Dancing
Chairs and Tables Large Field opened up by French Investigations
Point to Materialistic Results .' Page 99.

CHAPTER VIII.

THE RELIGION OF THE FUTURE. AGNOSTICISM AND CHRISTIANITY.

PART I.

Are they reconcilable Definitions of Agnosticism and Christianity Chris-
tian Dogma Rests on Intuition, not Reason Descartes, Kant, Coleridge
Christian Agnostics Tendency of the Age Carlyle, George Eliot,
Renan Anglican Divines, Spurgeon Robert Elsmere . . Page 114.

CHAPTER VIII. (continued).

PART II.

Effect on Morals Evolution of Morality Moral Instincts Practical Religion
Herbert Spencer and Frederic Harrison Positivism and the Unknow-
able Creeds and Doctrines Priests and Churches Duty of Agnostics
Prospects of the Future Page 122.

CHAPTER VIII. (continued).

PART III.

Practical Philosophy Zoroastrian Theory Emerson on Compensation Good
and Evil Leads to Toleration and Charity Matthew Arnold and Philis-
tinismSalvation Army Conflict of Theology and Science Creed of
Nineteenth Century Page 132

CHAPTER IX.

THE HISTORICAL ELEMENT IN THE GOSPELS.

Huxley and Dr. Wace Sermon on the Mount, and Lord's Prayer English
and German Biblical Criticism Papias His Account of Origin of the
Gospels Confirmed by Internal Evidence Commonsense Conclusions
Miracles a Question of Faith Evidence Required The Ascension-
Early Christian and Mediaeval Miracles St. Thomas-a-Becket Faith-
Historical Element Virgin Mary Guiding Principles of Historical In-
quiry Minimum of Miracles Admissions which tell against Jesus an
Historical Person Born at Nazareth Legends of Nativity St. John the
Baptist Kingdom of God Socialistic Spirit Pure Morality Nucleus
of Fact in Miracles Precepts and Parables Disputes with Scribes
and Pharisees Jesus a Jew Messiahship Dying Words Passion
and Crucifixion Improbabilities Pilate Resurrection Contradic-
tionsGrowth of Legend Probable Nucleus of Fact Riot in the
Temple Return of Disciples to Galilee Conflicting Accounts of Res-
urrection Return of Apostles to Jerusalem and Foundation of Christian
Church Page 137.



vl CONTENTS.

CHAPTER X.

SCEPTICISM AND PESSIMISM.

Carlyle Causes of Pessimism Decay of Faith A Prosaic Future Denial
of these Charges Definition of Scepticism Demonology Treatment
of Lunatics Witchcraft Heresy Religious Wars Nationality has
superseded Religion Wars more Humane Originality of Modern
Events and Characters Louis Napoleon Bismarck Gladstone Parnell
Abraham Lincoln Lord Beaconsfield Darwin Huxley Poetry
Fiction Painting A Happier World Page 164.

CHAPTER XL
CREEDS OF GREAT POETS.

What is a Great Poet Ancient and Modern Poets Byron, Shelley, Swin-
burne, Browning, Pope, Dryden, Coleridge, Spenser Chaucer Words-
worth Nature- Worship Ode on Immortality Byron and Shelley
Burns Gospel of Practical Life Shakespeare Self recorded in Hamlet
and Prospero The Sonnets Views of Death Behind the Veil Pros-
pero Views identical with Goethe's Faust And with the Maya or
Musiar of Buddhism Pantheism Ignoring of Religion Patriotism and
Loyalty his ruling Motives Practical Influence of Religion Exaggerated
Religious Poets Dante Milton Contrast between Greek Tragedy
and Modern Poetry Tennyson Poet of Modern Thought In Memoriam
Practical Conclusions Page 182.

CHAPTER XII.

ARMED EUROPE.

Exhibition in Hyde Park Predictions of Peace Era of Great Wars Increase
of Armies Difficulty of Disarmament Diplomacy Crimean War
Franco-Italian and Franco-German Wars Results Spirit of Nationality
France the Disturbing Element England's Foreign Policy Austria's
Danger Decay of Turkey Its Inheritance Possible Solutions Con-
stantinople Balkan States Russia's Policy ...... Page 200.

CHAPTER XIII.

TAXATION AND FINANCE.

New Departure in Finance Increased Armaments Foreign Policy and
Finance Russia and France Policy of England Home Defence
Army and Navy Treasury responsible How Budgets are framed
National Debt Unpolitic to reduce Debt by under-insuring Inefficient
Administration Want of Clear Responsibility Incidence of Taxation
Proportions paid by Property and Labor Unearned Increment Income-
tax Succession Dutv Lines of Budget of the Future . . . Page 214.

CHAPTERJ XIV.
POPULATION AND FOOD.

Malthusian Theory Seems Self-evident But is Contradicted by Experience

England United States Canada Reserves of Wheat-growing Land

Increase of Urban and Industrial Population Emigration Working

of Malthus' Law Prospect of Increasing Supply of Food in Old Countries
Checks on Population Wars Pestilence Famine Example of Ire-
land England Safe for the Present Free Trade and Competition
Cannot go on Indefinitely Prospects for Future Generations It is a
"Problem of the Future." ............ Page 23<J.



AND ESSAYS



INTRODUCTION

Men, my brothers, men the workers, ever reaping something new,
That which they have done but earnest of the things that they shall do."

TENNYSON'S Locks ley Hall.

THE traveller in the Alps, after struggling up through dense fir woods,
in which his view is limited to a few yards, emerges on grassy slopes,
where swelling ridges and rocky peaks appear to bound the horizon.
Weary and scant of breath, he thinks if he can surmount these his labor
will be ended, and a free view enjoyed, with nothing but the vault of
heaven above him. But no ! when these heights are scaled, he sees before
him ridge behind ridge of loftier summits, and in the background of all,
the glittering peaks of Jungfraus and Matterhorns, standing out white and
seemingly inaccessible, against the deep blue sky.

But if he is a practical mountaineer he knows that, grim as are the
glaciers and precipices which girdle their icy fortresses, they are not invin-
cible to human effort ; and as the foot of man has stood on some of the
loftiest summits, he feels assured that it will stand on those which remain
unsealed.

So it is with modern science. For centuries it had to grope its pur-
blind way through dense jungles of superstitious ignorance, where misty
shapes of theological and metaphysical speculation obscured the real facts
of the universe, or were mistaken for them. At length, and comparatively
quite recently, the human intellect emerged into the light of day, and
gaining the first heights, began to acquire accurate ideas of the true laws
and constitution of the universe. The progress, once begun, went on at
an accelerated rate, until in the last half century it has carried with it in
an impetuous torrent old creeds and cherished convictions, like so much
drift-wood floating on the surface of Lake Erie, when caught by the cur-
rent which hurries it down the Falls of Niagara.

So irresistible and so wide-spread has been the advance of science, that
at first sight we are perhaps disposed to overrate it, and to fancy, like

7



r BEACON LIGHTS OF SCIENCE.

Alexander, that no more worlds remain to conquer, or that, at most, a
few unimportant territories are still unannexed. But the true man of
science knows differently. He sees ridge still rising behind ridge, and at
every step wider horizons opening, with distant peaks that still baffle the
boldest climber.

But he no longer gazes at them with aimless wonder, or if he fails to
understand them, invents a high-sounding phrase to disguise his igno-
rance. His faith is firm in the laws of Nature, and he feels assured that
whatever lies within their domain is discoverable, and will, sooner or
later, and probably sooner rather than later, be discovered.

In former works I have attempted to give some popular view of what
modern science has actually accomplished in the domains of Space, Time,
Matter, Energy, Life, Human Origins, and other cognate subjects. In
this, I will endeavor to point out some of the " Problems of the Future,"
which have been raised but not solved, and are pressing for solution.

In both cases I address myself to what may be called the semi-scientific
reader. The advanced student of science will find little which he does
not already know. Those who are ignorant of the first elements of
science, and, like Gallic, care for none of these things, will scarcely un-
derstand or feel an interest in the questions treated of. But there is a
large, and I believe rapidly increasing class, who have already acquired
some elementary ideas about science and who desire to know more.
Curiosity and culture are in effect convertible terms : the wish to know is
the first condition of knowing. To many who are in this stage of culture,
but who have neither the time nor faculty for following up closely the
ever-widening circle of advanced thought, it may be interesting to get
some general and popular idea of some of the unsolved problems which
have been raised by modern science, and are occupying the thoughts of
the men who lead its van.

In selecting a few among the many questions which have been thus
raised, I have been guided by this principle. In the course of nature I
must have left this earth before they have been solved. If the option
were given me of paying it a short visit fifty or a hundred years hence,
what are the questions which I should ask with the most eager curiosity,
and to which I should expect to get a satisfactory reply?

They are partly scientific questions, respecting the age of the earth,
the constitution of the sun and solar system ; the ultimate nature of
matter and energy, the beginnings of life, the origin and antiquity of
man ; partly religious, social, and political questions which are looming
on the horizon and engaging the attention of thinking men.

I do not pretend to have exhausted the list, but I hope I may have
done something to give definiteness and precision to the ideas of some of
the educated public who are not specialists upon various questions which
are now pressing forward and waiting for solution.



MJE3^2>



CHAPTER I
SOLAR HEAT

ONE of the most interesting and perplexing scientific problems of the
day is that raised by the conflict between physicists and geologists
as to the duration of solar heat.

Leading mathematicians, such as Sir W. Thomson and Helmholtz, as-
sign twenty, or more probably, ten millions of years as the outside pos-
sible past duration of a supply of heat from the sun, sufficient to main-
tain the earth under conditions enabling it to support life. Lyell, and a
majority of the best geologists, consider that one hundred to two hun-
dred millions of years are required to account for the undoubted facts of
geology since life began. Each side support their case by arguments,
which, taken by themselves, seem conclusive. And yet the gap between
the two is so wide that it cannot be bridged over by mutual concessions,
and it is evident that there must be some fundamental error in the as-
sumed data on one side or the other.

The mathematicians base their argument on the supply of solar heat
They say the present amount of heat radiated by the sun is a measurable
quantity ; the principle of the conservation of energy shows that this heat
cannot be self-supplied, but must be a transformation of pre-existing en-
ergy ; the only sufficient energy we know of is that of the mechanical
force generated by the contraction of the sun as it cools. This, again, is
a measurable quantity, and the outside amount of mechanical power gen-
erated by contraction of the sun's mass to its present volume by gravity,
would not supply the present amount of heat for more than twenty mill-
ions, or more probably for more than ten or fifteen millions of years.

This forms a chain of reasoning, every link of which seems to be sol-
idly welded. Let us examine each link in detail. The amount of solar
heat received at the earth's surface has been carefully measured by Hers-
chell, Pouillet, and other eminent observers, the principle being to inter-
cept a beam of sunshine of known dimensions, and make it give up its
heat to a known mass of water or other substance, measuring accurately
the rise of temperature produced in a given time. The result is this :
the heat, measured by Calories, or units of heat sufficient to raise the
temperature of one kilogramme of water one degree Centigrade, received
per minute by one square metre exposed perpendicularly to the sun's rays

9



TO BEACON LIGHTS OF SCIENCE.

at the upper surface of the atmosphere, ranges from Pouillet's estimate of
1 7 '6 to that of Forbes' 28-2 Calories, the difference arising mainly from
the different allowance made for absorption by the atmosphere, and the
highest estimate being proved by Langley's observations at a high altitude
to be the most reliable.

From this it is esay to calculate the amount of heat received by the
earth from the sun in a given time. Herschell puts it in this striking way.
The amount of heat received on the earth's surface, with the sun in the
zenith, would melt an inch thickness of ice in two hours and thirteen
minutes. But, if it be assumed that the sun radiates heat equally in all
directions, the earth intercepts only an almost infinitesimally small amount
of this heat In fact, only the proportion which the earth's surface bears
to the surface of a sphere whose centre is in the sun, and its radius the
distance of the earth from the sun, or about ninety-three millions of miles.
This proportion is 2200000000- But even tn * s ininu te fraction is sufficient
to melt yearly, at the earth s equator, a layer of ice of more than one
hundred and ten feet thick. So, as Sir W. Thomson puts it, if the sun
were a mass of solid coal, and produced its heat by combustion, it would
burn out in less than six thousand years. Of course this calculation de-
pends on the assumption that the sun radiates heat equally in all directions
into space. It is difficult to conceive how this can be otherwise, for, as
far as we know, all heated bodies at the earth's surface do so, and all im-
pulses which cause waves in an elastic medium, such as we know to be the
case with heat and light, propagate these waves in all directions.

Assuming therefore that the sun gives out this enormous amount of
heat, where does it come from, and how is the supply kept up, uniformly
or nearly so, for millions of years ? The law of the conservation of energy
says, in effect, that something cannot be made out of nothing, and that
all special forms of energy, such as heat, light, electricity, and mechanical
power, are convertible into one another, and are simply transformations
of one original fund of energy. If so, the sun's heat must be kept up by
energy transformed into heat from some other form. It cannot be from
combustion, which is a chemical action, for we have seen that a sun of
solid coal would be burned out in six thousand years. It must be from
mechanical force, which we know as a fact to be convertible into heat in
a definite and ascertained proportion.

Now what are the sources of mechanical power known in the case of
the sun ? Two the impact of aerolites, and the shrinkage of the sun as
it contracts, which latter resolves itself into an effect of gravity.



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