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FEBRUARY 2005



Montana Economy at a Glance

^ Quarterly Edition

i 3^"'. VtV-i/ir-Ef'




Robert C. Marvin, Editor



IN THIS ISSUE:



unemployment rates
by County and
Statistical Area

PAGE 2

nonfarm employment
Series Table

PAGE 2

The Quarterly Census of
employment and wages

PAGE 3

Carbon County^
Flier released

PAGE 4

Current employment
Statistics (CES) benchmark

PAGE 5



$1



RESEARCH & ANALYSIS BUREAU



MQiiiAftji ■ i f *• r fl t* i y i itisi p i4#miif



Unemployment Rate



Seasonally adjusted (preliminary February 2005 data)



7%



6^



5**



4%



—Montana
— U.S.




3%



Montana

4.5%



-r



1

1999



1

2000



1

2001



1

2002



1

2003



1

2004



1

2005



| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 2004

Montana's seasonally- adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in February 2005
from 4.4% in January 2005. Trie U.S. rate also increased, reaching 5.4% for February
2005.



Nonfarm Employment



January 2001 - February 2005



43Q,ceO

42OJ3O0
4ti,00G

400,000
390j000
380CCQ

370 aoo



— > Unadjusted



T~



S*iMfufly

Ai,'|ii - :ri1

413,000

7'



7K



\J



r^






360.000



2001



2002



2003



2004



2005



Montana's seasonally- adjusted nonagricultural payroll employment was up 7,600 jobs
(1.9%) over-the-year for February. Trie largest gains were in Construction, which was
up by 1,600 jobs (6.8%); Education & Health Services, up 1,400 jobs (2.6%); and
Leisure & Hospitality, up 1,400 jobs (2.6%). Natural Resources and Mining also
showed significant gains, increasing by 13.2% (900 jobs) over-the-year.



Montana Economy at a Glance



UNEMPLOYMENT BY COUNTY





Feb.


Feb.




Feb.


Feb.




Feb.


Feb.




2005*


2004




2005*


2004




2005*


2004


UNITED STATES


5.8%


6.0%


Glacier


10.2%


10.0%


Powder River


6.1%


7.2%


MONTANA


5.5%


5.4%


Golden Valley


5.8%


9.5%


Powell


8.1%


7.2%








Granite


7.8%


6.5%


Prairie


6.9%


8.5%


Beaverhead


5.1%


4.7%


Hill


5.5%


4.8%


Ravalli


6.9%


7.1%


Big Horn


12.0%


11.9%


Jefferson


5.5%


5.4%


Richland


4.4%


4.2%


Blaine


6.2%


5.7%


Judith Basin


7.4%


5.5%


Roosevelt


7.7%


6.4%


Broadwater


5.3%


5.5%


Lake


8.1%


7.9%


Rosebud


6.4%


5.7%


Carbon


4.4%


4.2%


Lewis & Clark


5.1%


4.6%


Sanders


8.6%


9.2%


Carter


4.0%


3.4%


Liberty


5.9%


5.3%


Sheridan


4.5%


5.5%


Cascade


5.0%


4.8%


Lincoln


11.7%


12.8%


Silver Bow


6.0%


6.0%


Chouteau


5.1%


4.5%


McCone


5.4%


4.7%


Stillwater


4.2%


4.0%


Custer


5.6%


5.2%


Madison


5.4%


5.9%


Sweet Grass


2.8%


3.1%


Daniels


4.1%


5.4%


Meagher


6.7%


6.8%


Teton


5.2%


4.8%


Dawson


4.5%


5.2%


Mineral


8.6%


7.8%


Toole


4.2%


3.6%


Deer Lodge


8.0%


7.9%


Missoula


4.9%


4.5%


Treasure


6.5%


5.6%


Fallon


3.8%


4.1%


Musselshell


5.3%


5.0%


Valley


5.9%


5.2%


Fergus


7.8%


7.6%


Park


5.6%


5.6%


Wheatland


6.5%


6.6%


Flathead


7.0%


7.4%


Petroleum


6.1%


8.1%


Wibaux


3.9%


3.6%


Gallatin


3.9%


3.8%


Phillips


6.4%


7.0%


Yellowstone


4.1%


3.8%


Garfield


6.9%


5.0%


Pondera


6.8%


6.7%









* 2005 rate preliminary



unemployment by
Statistical Area



Metropolitan Statistical Areas




Feb. Feb.




2005* 2004


Billings


4.1% 3.8%


Great Falls


5.0% 4.8%


Missoula


4.9% 4.5%


Micropolitan Statistical Areas




Feb. Feb.




2005* 2004


Bozeman


3.9% 3.8%


Butte-Silver Bow


6.0% 6.0%


Havre


5.5% 4.8%


Helena


5.1% 4.7%


Kalispell


7.0% 7.4%



EMPLOYMENT
BY INDUSTRY



2005 rate preliminary



Industry Employment
(in thousands)


Feb.
2005


Feb.
2004


Net
Change


Percent
Change


Total Non-Agricultural


413.0


405.4


7.6


1.9%


Natural Resources & Mining


7.7


6.8


0.9


13.2%


Construction


25.2


23.6


1.6


6.8%


Manufacturing


19.3


19.1


0.2


1.0%


Trade, Transportation, Utilities








0.1%


Information*


7.8


7.6


0.2


2.6%


Financial Activities


21.2


20.9


0.3


1.4%


Professional & Business Services


32.9


32.2


0.7


2.2%


Education & Health Services


54.9


53.5


1.4


2.6%


Leisure & Hospitality


54.3


52.9


1.4


2.6%


Other Services*




16.4


0.5


3.0%


Total Government


86.6


86.3


0.3


0.3%



These series are not seasonally adjusted



Montana Economy at a Glance



Tits




is Ay Czm m



ui Empluyuizm mid Wn^m



When compiling employment and wage data, the
more units in your sample the better. Some data series
take a sample of a few thousand employers and create
an estimate using advanced statistical modeling. We
are fortunate in the Research & Analysis Bureau
to have one of the most comprehensive data series
available that is much more than just a sample. The
Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Program,
or QCEW for short, compiles employment and wage
data from all employers covered under Montana
unemployment insurance. This data is compiled on
a quarterly basis by county, industry and ownership.
This gives us a comprehensive look at the data actually
reported by over 40,000 Montana employers.

This program provides actual counts of payroll
jobs that can help tell the story of the economy in
Montana. Since the data is collected quarterly, there
can be a 6 month time lag from the end of the
reference quarter until we can release the data. For
instance, the most recent data we have available right
now is for the 3 rd quarter of 2004 (July, August and
September). We are currently working on compiling
and editing data for 4 th quarter 2004, and it will be
available for release late in May. We will provide that
information to you in our next expanded issue of
Economy at a Glance.

The QCEW program puts all business
establishments into industry categories using the
North American Industry Classification System, or
NAICS. The NAICS coding system replaces the old
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system of the
1980 s. Under NAICS there are 20 major Sectors that
represent the general categories of economic activities.
Let's look at some of the major industry sectors in
Montana and what the data shows comparing 3 rd
quarter 2004 to data from the same quarter of the
previous year.



By Mike Peery



We are fortunate

in the Research &

Analysis Bureau to

have one of the most

comprehensive data

series available.



The Mining industry showed strong growth of
over 26% by adding over 1,300 jobs, thus reaching
an average employment level of 6,378 for the quarter.
Construction remains strong in Montana showing
employment of 29,579 in 3 rd quarter 2004. This is up
over 1,600 jobs from the previous year, an increase of
almost 6%.

The Accommodations and Food Services Sector
remains steady with a 3.7% increase in jobs, reaching
48,547 for the quarter. This sector includes lodging
and eating and drinking establishments in the state.
Health Care also remains steady with an increase of
3.3%, reaching almost 53,000 payroll jobs for the
quarter. It is one of the largest industry sectors in
Montana, comprising almost 16% of the states
private sector jobs.

While not declining, Manufacturing continues to
show slow growth, gaining only 449 jobs over the year
(a 2.4% growth rate) , for a total of 1 9,484 jobs. Retail
Trade, the largest of sector of private employment in
the state, showed a modest 2% increase over the year
of just less than 1,100 new jobs.



Montana Economy at a Glance



Montana Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

3rd Quarter 2003 vs. 3rd Quarter 2004

Major Industry Sectors



AGRICULTURE

MINING

UTILITIES

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACTURING

WHOLESALE TRADE

RETAIL TRADE

TRANSPORTATION

INFORMATION

FINANCE AND INSURANCE

REAL ESTATE, RENTAL & LEASING

PROFESSIONAL AND TECHNICAL SERVICES

MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES

ADMINISTRATIVE AND WASTE SERVICES

EDUCATIONAL SERVICES

HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, AND RECREATION

ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES

OTHER SERVICES

GOVERNMENT



Payroll Jobs

£* %* %. %. %i %» % ** **U ^ ^ **, ^ ^ ^ **
'% '% -^ '% '% '% '% '% '% '% % % % '% % %

s 1 — i 1 — I — I — I — I — I — I I t I EZ"



□ 3rd Quarter 2004
■ 3rd Quarter 2003



i




There were only four out of the 20 major
industry sectors that showed a decrease
over the year. The largest sector showing
decline was Management of Companies and
Enterprises with almost a 15% decrease.
This sector includes corporate, district and
regional offices as well as holding companies.
Government as a whole showed a decrease
of over 400 jobs, over half of which were
in State Government. The other two sectors
were pretty evenly matched. Transportation
and Warehousing showed a decrease of just
over 200 jobs, and Educational Services also
showed a decrease of just over 200 jobs.

Stay tuned for our next expanded issue of

the Economy at a Glance when we release the

latest numbers from the QCEW program,

^hich will include the 2004 annual



Carbon County Flier
Now Available

The Research & Analysis Bureau has released its
latest informational flier for Carbon County. Fliers
for Stillwater, Missoula, and Cascade Counties will
follow shortly.

R&A's County Fliers provide information on
the local labor force, population by age, race, and
gender, employment by industry, per capita personal
income, number of farms and ranches by category,
and more.

To download these fliers, visit our website at
www.ourfactsyourfuture.org , and click "State &
County Fliers" on the left sidebar menu, then choose
a county.



Montana Economy at a Glance



c



iu*j / ^iii iiji



pJu/jj]







sjii axnii£JUi:^



(Lj^jJ iJsuciiijJUi'Jiitig



The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program
is a monthly survey of business establishments
which provides estimates of employment, hours,
and earnings by industry for the entire state and for
the three metropolitan areas of Billings, Great Falls,
& Missoula. The level of nonagricultural wage
and salary employment is based on an estimate of
the month-to-month change in a verified level of
employment.

Because the CES program produces estimates
based on a sampling of employers, the survey is
susceptible to two sources of error: sampling error
and non-sampling error. Sampling error is present
any time a sample is used to make inferences
about a population because the sample doesn't
perfectly describe the total population of businesses
in Montana. Non-sampling errors are due to
such things as industry classification changes of
businesses and the opening and closing of businesses
during the year.

To correct for these errors, the CES estimates are
adjusted each year during the process known as
benchmarking. A benchmark is defined as a point
of reference from which measurements can be
made, or upon which adjustments are based. The
employment benchmark is a nearly complete count
of all employees in an industry at a specific point in
time, and sets the level of employment from which
the month-to-month change is measured.

The main source of the benchmark data is the
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages



By Douglas Burtosky, Research Specialist

(QCEW), which is a complete count of all
employees covered by Montana unemployment
insurance laws. The QCEW is adjusted by special
surveys to include employees not covered by
unemployment insurance laws.

Nonagricultural wage and salary employment
estimates are compared to the QCEW on an annual
basis and adjusted accordingly (benchmarked) for
estimation errors that may have occurred. The
original sample-based estimates are replaced with
benchmark data from the previous year through at
least March of the benchmark year. In the current
2004 benchmark, the estimates from January 2003
to September 2004 were replaced with Ul-based
universe counts. Once the new levels for September
2004 were determined, the estimates for October
2004 forward were recalculated by applying the
appropriate month-to-month changes to the new
levels.

How do benchmarks differ from estimates?

A benchmark revision is the difference between the
benchmark employment level for a given March
and its corresponding sample-based estimate. The
overall accuracy of the establishment survey is
usually gauged by the size of this difference.

Table 1 (page 6) gives information on employment
levels by industry from the March 2004 benchmark.
At the total private level, nonagricultural
employment was revised by 0.9%.







MONTANA ECONOMY AT A GLANCE - FEBRUARY 2005






Table 1 - Benchmark evaluation
(employment in thousands)


of all employees for major industry divisions in Montana
















Final Amount

Estimate Benchmark Revised

Mar. 2004 Mar. 2004 Mar. 2004


Percent

Revised

Mar. 2004




Total Nonagricultural


395.7 399.4 3.7


0.9%


Total Private


308.3 311.8 3.5


1.1%


Goods Producing Industries


44.8 46.4 1 .6


3.6%




Service Providing Industries


350.9 353 2.1


0.6%






Natural Resources & Mining


6.2 6.6 0.4


6.5%






Construction


20.4 21.1 0.7


3.4%






Manufacturing


18.2 18.7 0.5


2.7%






Trade, Transportation, Utilities


82.9 84.3 1.4


1.7%






Information


7.7 7.7 0.0


0.0%






Financial Activities


20.6 20.8 0.2


1 .0%






Professional and Business


32.1 31.6 -0.5


-1.6%




Educational and Health


54.1 54.3 0.2


0.4%


Leisure and Hospitalities


49.9 50.1 0.2


0.4%


Other Services
Government


16.2 16.6 0.4
87.4 87.6 0.2


2.5%
0.2%


















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Online LibraryMontana.Dept. of Labor and Industry.Research and AMontana economy at a glance (Volume 2005 Feb Quarterly Edition) → online text (page 1 of 1)