every hour of the depositions of the witnesses and the
explanations of the accused. He could not ignore the
profound and widespread bearing of this scandal, and
he must have felt still more apprehension for the future
than humiliation for the present.
Is it too daring to imagine that at that moment
William the Peacemaker at last recognized the irre-
sistible pressure of those obscure needs and forces
which must one day soon drive him to the solutions
of the stern iron law ?
One of the most disquieting elements revealed by a
study of Franco-German relations, and one which leads
to dangerous political instability in the mutual dealings
of the two countries, arises, strange to say, from the
Emperor's unsettled, pacific leanings.
It is because he sincerely wishes for the peace of
the world and because, from year to year, he sees
how increasingly impossible that is, unless it can be
founded upon an entente if not alliance with France,
that William II will find himself compelled to make
At first sight the statement seems paradoxical, but
it only expresses a simple truth.
To seek in vain for a valuable or useful friendship
ends by being very exhausting and irritating. The
man who refuses obstinately to shake the hand
150 WAR "NECESSARY'
that is courteously offered him, exposes himself to
a request for an explanation, generally followed by a
William II said it in so many words to one of our
fellow-countrymen : "I am tired of holding out a hand
that you decline to see/' This accounts for the fluctua-
tions and suddenness in his attitude towards us, his
unexpected advances, so pressing and indiscreet,
followed by violent, provocative words.
He is as incapable as every other German of con-
templating the only solution of the problem the
restitution, or rather the exchange, of Alsace-Lorraine
and therefore considers our reserve as a personal
injury and cannot grasp its motive.
If on the other hand he does grasp it only too clearly,
it is the most dangerous incentive to him to adopt the
argument repeatedly advertised by Pan-Germans,
namely, that a lasting peace between France and Ger-
many can only be realized at the price of a decisive war.
The war may therefore break out immediately after an
exhibition of imperial cordiality, not from any particular
duplicity, but because William II will have reasoned
thus : " There is nothing to be done with these people.
They will never forget and they will never give up
hope as long as they are strong enough to have the right
to hope. Let us be done with them, the sooner the
better. Then when I have annihilated France I shall
secure the peace of the world and deserve the name
of William the Peacemaker."
To conclude that William II will never consent to
war because he has kept the peace for twenty-five years
is to ignore the irresistible logic of events, is to build
upon the most fleeting and dangerous of dreams, and is
to court light-heartedly the most tragic disillusionment.
GERMAN INDUSTRIES 151
William II the Pacific will want war as soon as he is
convinced that it is necessary.
Germany offers to the casual observer the imposing
spectacle of an immense factory or business house at its
busiest time. M. Frangois Deloncle, a French deputy, on
returning from a rapid visit through industrial and com-
mercial Germany, rejoiced to think that a country so
absorbed in important interests must of necessity be so
wedded to peace, and he expressed a hope that no one
would disturb the Colossus at work. . . .
In the first place the economic condition of Germany
is very far from being what one would gather, judging
Secondly, it is not our fault that there are many
Germans who consider that war is as essential on the
grounds of material interests, trade, production and
exchange as it is on political grounds.
Certainly Germany's industrial and commercial pros-
perity has developed in marvellous and unexpected pro-
portions. At the time of William II's twenty-fifth
anniversary the Taegliche Rundschau proudly quoted
figures to show what progress had been made by the
Empire in that quarter of a century.
The return of German agriculture had increased from
50 to 80 per cent. In 1912, cereals produced 2 billion
800 million marks, cattle 4 billions, milk 2 billion 750
million, making a total for these products alone of
nearly 10 billion marks or 12 billion 500 million francs.
The figures for commercial industries in 1912 reached
25 billion francs, of which nearly 12 billion were exports.
The production of iron has trebled, coal is seven times
152 WAR "NECESSARY'
as great. German railways, in this quarter of a century,
have grown from 40,000 to 70,000 kilometres of lines.
Savings-bank deposits have increased by nearly 13
billion francs. The increase in national wealth may
be calculated at from 5 to 7 billion francs a year. . . .
These figures correspond to the reality : Germany's
production and trade is increasing steadily, she is
getting richer. But by a singularly disturbing co-
incidence, it cannot be denied that the general increase
of wealth is leading to an economic and financial crisis.
The reason for this is that all the money that has been
made has been invested in new and often risky under-
takings. We must admire the enterprising German
spirit which never leaves its capital idle and is never
content with the profit realized, but is always venturing
on vaster operations to increase its funds. But in the
end a very precarious state of affairs is reached, when
all this wealth is represented only by speculative values. 1
A forced liquidation, brought about by some great
event, would be terrible for high commerce and high
finance. Securities cannot be realized, money is dear
because it is scarce, credit is shaky, even State credit :
the last loans raised by the kingdom of Prussia or the
German Empire were not entirely covered in spite of
the combined effort by order of the insurance
societies, savings-banks, and credit societies.
In fact the financial condition of the State is bad.
The imperial budget is continually swelling. Taxes are
getting heavier, and in order to cover the expenditure
necessitated by the passing of the last military law,
recourse was made to a dangerous expedient which
introduces State Socialism into the finances of feudal
1 See Les Embarras de I'Allcmagne, by M. Georges Blondel.
GERMANY'S FINANCES 153
An agrarian crisis, closely connected with the political
crisis, is now in process, and is turning in favour of
Socialism. In spite of the progress in agriculture of the
last few years, it is not sufficient to feed the population
of Germany. For meat and cereals more particularly
she is dependent upon foreign countries. In their
anxiety not to be penalized by these imports, the
peasants insist upon protective tariffs which are highly
prejudicial to the inhabitants of the towns, who find
the most necessary commodities reach exorbitant
prices. Between peasants and townsfolk the struggle
rages from economic grounds to political grounds, and
in Prussia especially the situation is getting acute.
As a vivid example of what is taking place in the
industrial world we will consider the metal trade.
At first sight this industry seems to have reached the
most astounding prosperity : Germany produced 13
million tons of cast iron in 1907 and 20 million in 1913.
Unfortunately, the immediate result of this abnor-
mal output was a general fall in prices. Bars of
steel which were worth 124 marks at the end of 1912
have now fallen to 100 marks. There is the same pro-
portion in the fall of steel and sheet iron.
The Vorwdrts, a Socialist journal, stated in August,
1913, that this state of affairs could not go on beyond
a certain point.
' There will be violent struggles to open new markets
for Germany, and, consequently, there will be fresh
international complications. Germany exports half her
iron and steel manufactures to foreign countries ; as
other countries have colonies to secure their markets,
Germany will be obliged to look for some."
The threat is unmistakable and it is forced on us by
154 WAR "NECESSARY 1
What is more, Germany's vast iron works will be
short of raw material ; her iron ore will only last for a
very short time.
" In 1940 the iron ore of Luxemburg will be ex-
hausted, and before another ten years have passed its
output will have reached the maximum. In 1950
German iron ore will be exhausted, and in twenty years'
time its output will reach the maximum. Therefore,
before forty years have passed, Germany will be on the
eve of a most colossal catastrophe that is, the shutting
down of the works which are scattered throughout the
Rhine Province, Westphalia, Silesia, and the Sarre
valley. That will mean that twenty million people will
immediately be reduced to seeking their bread ; credit
societies will fail, and a crisis will ensue far more
appalling and on a much larger scale than any which
Germany has as yet produced as she does at regular
intervals to our astonished gaze. . . . When a nation
has reached such a pitch that it is obliged to collect the
smallest particles of ferruginous dust contained in the
gases which escape from its blast furnaces ; to mix them
with cellulose to make briquettes to put them back into
the furnace ; when this is done, not with the perfectly
legitimate commercial object of economizing, but by its
own confession, in order to postpone for four or five years
the terrible disaster which the disappearance of its ore
will entail, one may safely say, without exaggeration,
that it is on the edge of the abyss as far as iron is con-
Germany, as she feels disaster overtaking her, has
sought everywhere for iron : in Spain, in England, in
Sweden, even in Morocco.
1 Ou va I'Allemagne ? by M. Gaston Henry. See also L'Allemagne
aux abois, by the same author.
ECONOMIC STATE OF GERMANY 155
Why go so far afield when she has within her reach
the richest country in the world in iron ore France ?
The slow immigration has already begun. There are
German works in Meurthe-et-Moselle, in the Briey
region, of which a third is in German hands, the im-
portant Thyssen works in Normandy which have several
factories and furnaces, and the port of Dielette.
All this is only one step on the line of invasion along
which Germany will one day have to advance with all
her standards unfurled, for the conquest of our mineral
wealth must infallibly become for her industry a
question of life or death.
Thus we have proved the twofold statement that the
economic condition of Germany can never let her be
content with an indefinite period of peace, and that it
does not rest with us to avoid the certain clash of
material interests which are absolutely antagonistic.
When we reflect that Germany tries to prohibit us
from insisting that her manufacturers shall declare that
all the cheap goods they dump upon us are " made in
Germany'"; 1 when we see this country, which is short
of wheat, offering 55 marks a ton of flour to its subjects
in order that they may export it and ruin our peasants ;
when we realize that the day is coming when we shall
be obliged to take measures to protect ourselves against
1 Furious protests were aroused in Germany and threats of reprisals
from the German Government, because the French Customs decided
to apply the letter of the Customs Law of 1892, article 15, which
stipulates that German goods shall bear the mark " Made in
Germany ! "
2 The Berliner Tageblatt (July 29th, 1913,) gives the following
explanation : " Premiums on exports from Germany are not con-
fined to cereals. All iron and coal industries have introduced them
so as to ruin methodically the industry in neighbouring countries.
" Their agents report bankruptcies and catastrophes as they occur,
and when they consider that the country to be invaded is no longer
in a position to resist, the price is raised a again."
156 WAR "NECESSARY'
the invasion of German hands, 1 against the disturbing
swarms of German agents in every branch of our
industry and commerce, is there the faintest ground for
hoping that the fatal crash can be avoided ?
Just as in the purely political order of ideas, France
cannot escape from the dilemma of recognizing German
supremacy and submitting to it once for all or of con-
quering her independence as a great nation, with arms
in her hands ; so in the economic sphere we must either
accept submissive vassalage or secure by force the right
to be masters in our own land.
On June 8th, 1913, the General Anzeiger, an Inde-
pendent Frankfort newspaper, wrote :
" Germany's great development demands new outlets.
It is only by a war that we shall be able to overcome the
opposition of other nations. Our successes in peaceful
competition in most spheres of human activity are what
will inevitably precipitate war.
" It is a profound error to believe, as we often hear,
that nations can live side by side indefinitely in peaceful
rivalry. All competition is a necessary struggle in the
life of nations.''
Let us grant pacificists all they ask: that William II
loathes the idea of war, that the German people do not
hate us, and that the German democracy which votes
huge military credits and increased effectives will
1 French working-men's trade unions, though they do not pay
much attention to international principles, are getting alarmed them-
selves at the invasion of foreign hands. Besides the metal- workers'
federation, the builders' union has taken up the matter.
2 Extract from an article in the Deutsche Export Revue :
" If we wish to conquer a country economically and permanently,
we must begin by exporting men. . . . Some countries ask to be
conquered ; there are others which it is indispensable to conquer ;
the time comes at last when that conquest must necessarily be under-
taken. With regard to German trade relations with France, these
three conditions are now fulfilled."
leave no stone unturned to maintain peace. Granted
all these points and needless to say France will never
be the provoking party the eventuality of Jan armed
conflict is none the less certain for the reason which the
General Anzeiger points out, and which is economic
Germans need our financial market in order to get
money, they need our commercial market to dispose of
their over-production, they need our land for their
surplus population, our iron ore to supply their gigantic
iron works. We cannot concede them one atom of all
this, for that would mean the end of France, our total
subjection. The German Government may hesitate to
take it by force, while it is counting the cost, and
while it waits for particularly favourable circum-
stances. But can we doubt that when the German
people are hungry, when the out-of-work are clamouring
at the doors of the overflowing bureaus, when furnaces
are shut down for want of raw material, can we doubt
that an explosion of anger and jealousy will hurl them
in immense hordes towards our land, just as in old days
for similar reasons came hordes of Goths, Vandals,
Alans, and Suevi ?
For Germany, war is not only inevitable, it must be
very soon necessary.
Yes, as I lay down my pen, I repeat with renewed
conviction the cry of alarm that I wrote at the head of
these pages : France is in danger !
Not only is she in danger, as she was after the fatal
war of 1870, by the inexorable chain of circumstances ;
nor because it has been proved, after long and hopeless
waiting, and many fruitless attempts, that no solution
of peace is possible.
158 WAR "NECESSARY'
Henceforth France is in danger because of the
deliberate will and concerted plan of a powerful society
of bellicose doctrinaires, who have made her final
annihilation at no very distant date the first condition
of the gigantic work towards which imperialist Germany
France is in danger because of all the old reasons
which still exist and are aggravated every day, but also
for new reasons of which no one had warned her, and
which she had to be told.
Africa, East, Anglo-German
Agadir incident, ix, 35, 47, 145.
Algeciras, conference of, 34 ;
Alldeutsche Blaetter, extracts
from, xvii, 39, 42, in ; issue
Alldeutsche Verein fur die Ost-
mark, manifesto, 85.
Alldeutscher Verband, 12, see
Allgemeiner Deutscher Sprach-
verein, Society, 16.
Alsace-Lorraine, epoch of Ger-
manisation inaugurated, 47 ;
oppressive policy, 53 ; ques-
tion of the restoration, 137-40 ;
Bills of Exclusion against, 140.
Alsatian Mechanical Construc-
tion Company, xiii.
Andler, Charles, Le Socialisms im-
perialiste dans I'Allemagne con-
temporaine, extract from, 58, 59
Anglo-German agreement relat-
ing to East Africa, 13.
Annual Register, extracts from,
xi note, 34 note, 35 note.
Antwerp, number of Germans in,
Armee Zeitung, extract from, 83.
Arning, Herr, at Gottingen, 89.
Arracourt, incident at, x note',
patriotism of, 104.
Arren, Jules, " Guillaume II :
ce qu'il dit, et ce qu'il pense,"
Atlas, the Pan-German, 8.
League in, 75 ; number of
Leagues and Societies, 76, 77 ;
relations with Germany, 78.
Francis Ferdinand, character
of his policy, 79 ; his indeci-
Badeni, Count, result of the grant
of bilingualism to the Czecks,
73-5 ; rescinded, 75.
Ballin, Albert, 29.
Basle station, 128.
Bassermann, Herr, leader of the
National Liberals, xvii ; his
imperialist policy, 53.
Bebel, Herr, on the policy of
Germany in Morocco, 33.
Beckh, Richard, 99.
Belgium, number of Germans in,
1 1 8, 12 1 ; question of the
neutrality, 118-20 ; reorganiz-
ation of the army, 119.
Berenger, Senator Henry, 121 n.
Berlin, Pan-German League
meeting, forbidden, 74.
Berliner Post, 21 ; extract from,
Berliner Lokal Anzeiger, 21, 22.
Berliner Morgen Post, 20.
Berliner neueste Nachrichten,
22, 26 ; extract from, 132.
Berliner Tageblait, 20, 53 ; ex-
tracts from, 69, 155 note.
Berne Conference, 53, 127, 138.
Bernhard, Prof. Ludwig, 94.
Bernhardi, Gen. F. von, Deutsch-
land und der ndchste Krieg,
134-6 ; on the policy of
forcing attack, 146.
Bernhardt, Sarah, 47 note.
Bethmann-Hollweg, Heir von,
47 ; on the antagonism of
Germans and Slavs, 72 ; his
statement on the support of
Bismarck, Prince, gift of a
sword, 5 note ; his treatment
of the Pan-German League,
74 ; support of the St. Gothard
railway scheme, 126.
Bley, Fritz, Niederlande und die
alldeutsche Bewegung, 122 n.
Blondel, Georges, Les Embarras
de I'Allemagne, 152 note.
Blume, von, Strategic, 136 note.
Bohemia, League of Germans in,
76 ; number of societies, 77 ;
race antagonism, 77 note.
Bourdon, Georges, 107, 145 ;
L'Enigme alletnande, 20 note ;
extract from, 94.
Bourson, Paul, 24, 140 note.
Breitenbach, Heir von, Minister
of Public Works, on the scheme
to alter the course of the
Breusing, Admiral von, at the
Pan-German League meeting
at Hanover, 63 ; his series of
Breslau, Congress of the Pan-
German League at, 52 note,
70, 99, 141.
Brunswick, Pan-German League
meeting at, 48, 65, 81.
Brunswick, Duke of, his be-
Bukovina, League of Germans
Billow, Heir von, on the Mo-
roccan question, 32, 33; his
law against Poles and Danes,
Bund dev Deutsch-Oesterreicher
in Deutschen Reiche, 75.
Bund der Deutschen inBoehmenflb
Calmbach, Heinrich, his A II-
deutscher Katechismus, 8 note.
Cambon, Jules, xi note, 35 ; his
interview with Herr von
Kiderlen-Waechter, 103 ncte.
Caprivi, Chancellor von, 40.
Carillo, Gomez, Entre I'influence
francaise et allemande en
Carolines, island of, annexation,
Casablanca deserters, incident,
Catechism, the Pan-German, 6, 8.
Cherbourg, accident at, 26 note.
Class, Herr, President of the Pan-
German League, xvii, 15 ; his
pamphlet Have we lost Mo-
rocco ? (Marokko verloren) , xvii,
33 ; manifesto, 7 ; Western
Morocco must belong to Ger-
many (Westmarokko deutsch!),
36, 1 01 ; at Erfurt, 37 ; Die
Bilanz des neuen Kurses
(The Balance of the " New
Course "), 43; on the relations
between Germany and France,
64; at Munich, 67; his views
on the support of Austrian
claims, 8 1 ; his suppression
of a phrase in his pamphlet,
Colonial Union, 13.
Comert, Pierre, his study of
" German Chauvinism," 18.
Constant, M. d'Estournelles de,
at Berne, 138.
Cumberland, Duke of, see Bruns-
Czecks, grant of bilingualism,
result, 73-5 ; rescinded, 75.
Daily Telegraph, interview with
Emperor William II, 46.
Delbriick, Prof., on the restitu-
tion of Alsace-Lorraine, 138.
Delcass6, M., his dismissal, 34, 44.
Deloncle, Fra^ois, result of his
visit to Germany, 151.
Delsor, Abb6, xiv note.
Denais, Joseph, xiv note.
Deutschbund (German Society),
Deutsche Export Revue, extract
from, 156 note.
Deutsche Jugendwehr, 17.
Deutsche Kanzlei, Hilfstelle fur
vaterlaendische Arbeit, 16.
Deutsche Kolonialgesellschaft, 16.
Deutsche Sorgen von einer
Deutsche Tageszeitung, 21, 26 ;
extracts from, 4, 27.
Deutsche Warte, 22.
Deutsche Zeitung, 22.
Deutscher Flottenverein, 16.
Deutscher Kriegerbund, 16.
Deutscher Kurier, 53.
Deutscher Ostmarken-Verein, 17.
Deutscher Schulverein, 77.
Deutscher Schutzverbandgegen die
Deutscher Stipendien-Verein der
Proving Posen, 17.
Deutscher Verein fur das nord-
liche Schleswig, 17.
Deutscher Wehrverein (Society
for German Defence), 16 ;
Deutschland als Weltmacht, 97 n.
Gehilfen Verband, 17.
Diether, Herr Otto, 22.
Dresden, meeting at, 73.
Egger, Pan-German League,
meeting at, 74.
Eichler, Herr Otto, editor of the
Deutsche Zeitung, 22.
Eisenach Congress, 43.
Elsasser Tageblatt, 25.
Encyclopedia Britannica, extract
from, 146 note.
Erdmann, Herr Georg, Deutsch-
lands naechste Aufgaben, 106.
Erfurt, 37 ; congress at, 48, 64.
Esslingen, meeting at, 32.
Eulenbourg, Prince Philip of, 29.
Foreign Legion, Pan-German
campaign against, 140-4.
France, restoration of three
years' service, 70, 87, 133 ;
reorganization of military
forces, 87 ; German demands
of cessions of territory, 100-6 ;
result of defeat, 105-7, XI 5
expulsion of inhabitants, 108 ;
question of Alsace-Lorraine,
137-40 ; the Foreign Legion,
141-4 ; character of the army,
148 ; relations with Emperor
William II, 150 ; the iron ore
works, 155 ; in danger of war,
Franco-German Convention of
Frankfort, Treaty of, 32, 104.
Frymann, Daniel, Wenn ich der
Kaiser ware (If I were the
Emperor), extracts from, 8
note, 10, 50, 79, 80 ; his views
on the abandonment of Mo-
rocco to France, 36 ; on the
result of defeat to France, 106,
109, no; on the position of
Belgium in a Franco-German
war, 1 20 ; on an aggressive
Fur Wahrheit und Recht, extract
Furbringer, Herr, 124.
Fiirstenberg, Carl, 29.
Galicia, League of Germans in,
Gautier, Th6ophile, his definition
of patriotism, xvi. *
Geibel, Emmanuel, his poem, 4.
General Anzeiger, extract from,
German Apprehension by a
Germany, increase of the army,
xii note, 63 ; military laws
passed, 40, 55, 56, 61, 132 ;
intervention in the settlement
of the dispute between Japan
and China, 41 ; Reichstag
dissolved, 45 ; policy of the
Radical party, 52, 53 ; the
Socialists, 54 ; amount of war
contribution, 66, 70 ; relations
with Austria-Hungary, 78 ;
demands cessions of territory
from France, 100-6 ; result
of victory, 108 ; system of
strategic railways, 120 ; the
right of control over Swiss
railways, 127 ; number of
Germans in Switzerland, 129 ;
question of Alsace-Lorraine,
137-40 ; character of the
army, 147 ; decline of the
birth-rate, 148 note; indus-
trial and commercial pros-
perity, 151 ; financial condi-
tion, 152 ; the metal trade,
Germany, Crown Prince of, his
hymn of the sword, 4 ; Pan-
Germanism, 5 ; his disapproval
of the treaty oi 1911, 37 note.
Germany in Arms, 4.
Goltz, Baron von der, Kriegfuh-
rung, 136 note.
St. Gothard railway, 127, 128.
Gottingen, 66 ; meeting at, 89.
Goulven, J., " Le Pangcrman-
isme en Afrique," 118 note.
Grafenstaden incident, xiii.
Gregoire, Dr., 25.
Grosjean, Georges, 9.