the information and assumptions we used to estimate theijwjpply of
cocaine to the United States. For reasons discussed belj|PF, it is
not practical to develop estimates for heroin, marijuana, and
other illegal drugs .

COCAINE

This section focuses on the production and distribution of
cocaine. Although the production and distribution data we use
are the best available, we doubt that they totally reflect the
real processes by which coca leaves are converted into cocaine
and distributed. Further, both the cocaine production and
distribution processes are subject to numerous losses such as
spoilage, seizures,*^ and consumption*^ in countries other than
America. Rather than making highly speculative estimates of the
amount of losses, we make no estimates of losses.^ As a
result, our estimates of the amount of cocaine supplied to



Information About salxurfla la of qu«aclon«bl« r«ll«blliC7. Baaldaa providing an Incantlva for both
ovar- and undarcountlng at varloua Ju:\cturaa. alalaballng of aalturaa can raault In arrora of calculation. to*a
of tha aatlBataa that hava baan sada ara qulta apaculatlva. Per a â–  af 1 â–  tha 1991 men* notad that an aatlsatad
3<3 Batrlc tona of baaa vara availabla In Vanasuala for convaralon to cocalna HCl during 1990. Tha govamsant
thara raportad aaislng 1.7 satric tona of baaa. about half of tha aatlsatad aupply. HovaTar. In iBcai . 1993.
tha 1.7 »atrlc tona war* conaldarad paata. Thia raaultad in an Inaccurata aeceimtlng In aarllar varalona of
tha aodal.

Data ara Inadaquata to drlva aatlaataa of drug uaa practlcaa In Cantral and South Aaarlcan nationa,
but llaltad data Indlcata that conauaptlon auat ba algnlflcant. Por axaapla. tha Haxican govam*ant aaaplad
15.0O0 houaaholda In urban araaa. Intarrlavlng Indlvlduala who «f«ra 12 to 65 yaara old. Roughlr O.S parcant
of Balaa (12-34 yaara old) In tha northam part of tha country uaad haroln In tha yaar bafora tha aurraT:
cocalna waa uaad by 3.4 parcant In tha northwaat, 1.0 parcant In tha northaaat. and 1.2 parcant In tha cantral
north (n. MadlnaMova. 'Drug Abuaa In Northam Haalco: Raaulta fro« a National Houaahold Survay.' In
EoldgaiQloaie Tranda In DruQ Abuaa . Procaadinaa Jiin» 1990 WTD* 1990). Although aatlsataa ara aluslva.
Intamal conauaptlon of coca laavaa and Ita darlvatlva la high In producing countrlaa. Por asa«pla. an
aatlaatad 1 Billion Paruvlana acroaa 20 cltlaa chawad coca laaf. 200,000 aaokad coca paata. and ovar 100.000
Inhalad cocalna hrdrochlorida (P. Jarl. 'Sosa Racant Pacta about Drug Abuaa In Paru.' In rpf rf^Mi QloQlc T r«nda
In Di-uQ Abua« PT-og«*dina« jyr^^ 1990. N IDA. 1990). Indaad. Until racantlp. Bolivian and Paruvlan law parmlttad
llaltad do*aatlc production of coca for dosaatlc conauaptlon - 12.000 kllograaa in Bolivian and 14.000 kllograaa
in Paru. according to J. Inciardl I TYy* w*r on Druoa II. Mavflald Publlahlng. California. 1992: p. 206). In
addition to conauaption within producar countrlaa. apollaga and in-kind paymanta for ahipplng auat ba a aajor
loaa to tha haroln and cocalna Induatrlaa.

Thaaa loaaaa can ba larga. Abt Aaaociataa tabulatad drug raaoval and aaaat saitura data for 1990 and
1991 fro« tha U.S. Dapartsant of Juatlca. Buraau of Statlatlca. Druga and Crlaa Data Cantar and Claarlnghouaa.
Stata and local offlciala aaitad batwaan 18 and 34 Matrlc tona of cocalna par paar batvaan 1906 and 1990.
nultl juriadictlonal drug control taak forca unlta alona aaliad about 15 aatrlc tona ovar a thraa-yaar parlod
trrm 1908 to 1990. (J. Coldran and H. Sabath. Wul tl iurl «d<nMan«l Drua cont-i-ol T««,^ Tpr^** 1908-1990: Crttleal
rp«pnn»nf of Stata Druo Control atrataoiaa Buraau of Juatlca Aaalatanca. April 1992). So«a of thaaa aaiiuraa
â– ay alraady ba countad in tha Padaral aaiiuraa. ao tha aatlaataa aay ovaratata cocalna raaovad by Stata and
local aganta. Howavar. ao«a of tha Stataa raport data only for aaiiuraa by Stata polica. How thaaa arrora
balanca la unknown.



26



393



domestic markets are considerably higher than If we took Into
account the losses noted above.

The cocaine supply model

The production and distribution of cocaine starts in South
America, principally in the Andean nations, with the cultivation
of coca plants by farmers, and ends with retail-level drug
dealers in the United States. Figure 2 depicts the first part of
these processes. Coca leaves are harvested and then chemically
treated to produce coca paste. The paste is treated further to
create "base." Another chemical process turns the base into
cocaine hydrochloride ( HCl ) , or pure cocaine.

We developed a computer model for each of the stages in this
process ( Figure 3 ) from cultivation through transportation of the
product to consumer markets.*' The letter next to each box in
Figure 3 corresponds to the letters in Figure 2.

Coca cultivation (Box A). Estimates of the amount of land
under cultivation in the major coca producing countries (Peru,
Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador**) are published annually by the
Department of State in the International Sarcotlcs Control
Strategy Report (ZNCSR)." According to the INCSR, about
212,778 hectares" were under cultivation for coca leaf during
1991. This is less than the amount reported in 1989 (220,365
hectares) and 1990 (220,850 hectares).

Eradication efforts by the governments in producer
countries, sometimes with the assistance of the United States,
reduce harvestable coca leaves. In 1991, 6,' 538 hectares (3
percent of the total area reported under cultivation) were
eradicated,*' leaving about 206,240 hectares under cultivation.
This was slightly lower than the 1989 and 1990 estimates of
215,850 and 211,820 hectares respectively.



TKm coayuf r sodal ia an »d«^t«tlofi of m ^rallalnary ▼•raion of a cocalcM aupply aodol d«v«lop*d by
Uun> Corporation. Our modml u»«« varloua kinds of Information. Thaaa Inciuda aatlsataa of (1) land araa undar
cultivation In known producar countrlaa. (3) aradlcatad cultivation araaa. (3) coca laaf crop ylald . (4) thm
afflclancT of tha procaaa for convartlng laaf to In tafmi diary producta and tiMn to cocaln*. and (S) loaaaa.
conaMi^tlon. and a«i«ur«a «rlt>tln producar countrlaa.

Cecd la rwportadlr cultlvatad In Sraill and Vanaiuala. but aatl»ataa of hactaraa undar cultivation
ara not avallabla.

47

•uraaw of Xntamatlonai Barcotlca Rattars. in ^ tmmMtianMl llarcotie« Cantrol ai;yataff T ■—are

(Waahln^ton. D.C. : Da^artaant of Stata Pubilcatlona. Harch 1992. and pravioua fvaral. *ha luraau baaas its

calculatlona of land undar cultivation on 'provan aaUkoda aiailar to tiM>aa uaad to aatiaata ttka alia of licit

cropa at ho*a and abroad.*

46

OffM h«ctar« •quala 2.47 acraa.

!■«■ 1003 37. Wa mmmmm for tha purpeaaa of tha aodal that aradlcatlon la avanlr tflatributad tm m $
cultlvatad landa.



27



394



Coca plant yields (Box B) . The State Department calculates
coca leaf yields using the assumption that bushes can be
harvested three or four times a year.*° We use these
assumptions in our model. *'

Coca nanufacturlng (Boxes C through E) . Converting the coca
leaves into cocaine HCl requires laboratory equipment and large
quantities of chemicals. Information about processing and the
network of clandestine laboratories'^ is based on reports of
laboratories destroyed, speculation about the production capabil-
ities of laboratories in various countries, and the work of
researchers who have studied the process.'^

Leaf to Paste Conversion (Box C). Two factors affect the
amount of paste produced from treating coca leaves. First the
leaves grown in different countries have different alkaloid
content.'* Because the conversion ratio varies with the leaves'
alkaloid content, the conversion ratio varies from country to
country. Second, the indigenous population in Bolivia and Peru
consume coca leaves for dietary and medicinal purpKJses.''
Figure 3 shows consumption levels of 16,500 metric tons for both
Peru and Bolivia.



50

In an aarllar mm* report. The st«t« Dcpartaant calculated all coca laaf ylalda using tha aasuaptlon

that buBhaa vara ara harvaatad onca or twlca a yaar. Howavar. racant aTldaoca Indlcataa that aatura coca planta

(thoaa two to IS yaara old) In tha largaat cultlTatlng raglona of Paru and (ollvla can ba harraatad thraa or

four tl»aa a 7aar.

Tha convaraion procaaa can varf wldaly froa ona location to another In the procaaalng countrlaa.
According to Information now aTallabla froa a variety of aourcaa. tha mcaw accurately raflecta tha convaralon
procaaa In each of tha producer countrlee (J. Inclerdl. The War on Pi-iia« (Pelo Xlto. CA: nayfleld Puhllahlng
Cospany. 19S6I. 71-69: and telephone Interrlawa with I. Horalea, Weat Cheater Unlveralty. PA). Howavar. the
State Depertaent hea Indicated that further ra*lalona to aatlBataa Kay be neceaaary. The mean atetea that,
'unfortunately, field atudlea Indicate thet potential yield of the coce crop aay ba higher than pravloualy
eetlaatad. Thla could elter coce yield flguraa currently uaad to eatlaata the potential production of coca and
cocaine- (Iaca&_12i2. 9S).

Clandeatlne laboratorlaa ara located In tha cultivating countrlaa and In Argentine, Braill. and
Vaneiuela.

Where deta ara avellabla. the aodel conaldara the trenafere of leaf, paate. and baaa to other
countrlee. See E. Horelee. Cor. in. Whlta oold »u«h In p.ru (Tucaon: UnlTeralty of Arliona Praaa. 1989).

For asaapla. Coluablen coce leef haa about half the elkalold content of leef froa Peru or tollTla.
meat 1331- 107.

3o*e aadlcal and aoclologlcal atudlea place the number of peraona who chaw coca laavaa In thaaa two
countrlee at 3 to 4 allllon (Meaorandua froa II. Plynn. dated 24 Jenuery 24. 1991). If each peraon who chawa
coca laevea Ingeata between 30 end 60 greaa of dry coca laavaa eech day. between 33.000 and 66.000 aatrlc tone
of coca laaf are conauBad In these two countries each year. Carter et al.. In rr.<-»ln« naO: p rni-««rttn<i» nf
tha Intaraaarlean a.aln.r on Hadlg.l .nrf qn^iolnaicl Aao.rf. of Ceg. «rKl rnc.ln. ad. P.X. Jerl (Llaa. Peru:
Peclflc Preaa. 19a0) .

28



395



Paste to Base Conversion (Box D). This stage, which may not
be followed in all regions, is a relatively simple "washing" of
the coca paste in acetone before the final purification process.
This Increases the purity of the final product.

Base to Cocaine HCl (Box E). This stage requires
chemicals^' that are produced in many industrialized nations.
One unit of base yields an equal unit of cocaine HCl.

As shown in Table 14, this cultivation and manufacturing
process resulted in an estimated 708 to 810 metric tons of pure
cocaine that were available for shipment to world markets in
1991. "But, as described below, not all of this cocaine is
shipped to the principal consumer countries.

The transportation pipeline

Cocaine is shipped from manufacturing countries ( such as
Colombia) to the primary consumer countries (principally the
United States) in two ways. Some cocaine is shipped directly to
these countries. To avoid detection, however, some of it is
transshipped through other countries such as the Caribbean
nations. South and Central American countries, Canada, and
Mexico." Figure 4 illustrates the principal routes probably
taken by coca leaves grown in Bolivia as they are transformed
into cocaine, which is then shipped to world markets (the number
of countries through which cocaine is shipped on its way to the
main consumer countries is larger than shown here). Some cocaine
losses occur during these shipments.

Some of the cocaine is consumed in the transshipment
countries, but it is difficult to determine how much for a number
of reasons. For example, drug use surveys from these countries
are usually limited in scope and the methodology changes from
year to year. Accordingly, we have made no adjustments in our
model for these losses.



n

Th« ch«slc«la Include acctona. •th«r. and hydrochloric acid.

Tha ran^a raflacta dlffar«nt aaaua^tlona about conaiM^tlon of coca laaf In Bolivia and Paru.

kceordln« to tha Unltad Batiana. 7C parcant of all cocalna daatlnad for tha Unltad Itataa la trana-

ahlppad through nailco Unltad latlona. Intamatlonal Harcotlca Control loard (lact). a«»nrt ai lbs

lnt.mjiinn»l rn ntrol toard for 1991 (Vlonna. 1990). 36. rivura 4 lUuatrataa tha principal routaa probablr
tahan by coca laavaa grovn In loltvla aa thay ar* tranaforaad Into cocalna. which la than ahlppad to world
â– arkata. Tha nuAbar of countrloa through which cocalna la ahlppad on Ita way to tha aaln conauaar countrlaa
la lar^ar than ahown hara.



29



396



TABLE 14

Estimates of Cocaine HCl Available in the United States in 1991

(In metric tons)

Low High
HCl Available After Discounting For
Consumption Estimates in Bolivia and Peru'

Minimum Consumption Estimate of 33,000 Metric Tons 810
Maximum Consumption Estimate of 66,000 Metric Tons 708

Foreign Seizures^ -199 -199

HCl Available after Discounting

for Foreign Seizures (Including HCl Seized

in Producer Countries) 509 611

HCl Available after Discounting for
Shipments to Countries Other Than the U.S.

90% of HCl Shipped to the United States 550

75% of HCl Shipped to the United States 382

Federal Seizures' -108 -108

HCl Available in the United States after



Discounting for Donestic Seizures 274 442

'Estimates of HCl come from the computer model of the cocaine production
process using two levels of consumption estimates in Bolivia and Peru. Mini-
mum and maximum estimates of consumption come from Carter et al. (see foot-
note 55).

' INCSR. 1992 and Royal Canadian Mounted Police, National Drug Intelligence
Estimate. 1990 .

'Drug Enforcement Administration. Federal-wide Drug Seizure System. 1989-
1991.

The amount of cocaine available in consumer countries is
further reduced by foreign seizures. According to the INCSR,
authorities in producer, transshipment, and other consumer
countries seized about 200 metric tons of cocaine in 1991 (Table
14)."

Of the remaining amount, about 10 to 25 percent is diverted
to consumer countries other than the United States. (This
estimate lacks firm grounding, but is probably wide enough to
capture the actual proportion consumed outside the United
States. ) Based on these assumptions, we estimate that about 382



'■"«



_US2: ltd United aatlena. IHC*. ■«rgotig prua. t.ri»«t.d unrid »«aulr«Mnti far I ti ^.



30



397



to 550 metric tons of cocaine were shipped to the United States
in 1991 (Table 14).

The U.S. cocaine market

Of the amount of cocaine shipped to the United States,
Federal authorities seized about 108 metric tons, leaving 274 to
442 metric tons of pure cocaine for domestic consumption during
1991 (Table 14). This is an increase over 1990 estimates of 254
to 418 metric tons, but comparable to 1989 figures of 278 to 445
metric tons.

Using the midpoints of the estimates of price per pure gram
from Table 5, the total retail value of 274 to 442 metric tons is
between $42 and $68 billion in 1991.*° (This compares with
ranges of $45 to S74 billion in 1990 and $38 to $60 billion in
1989." Again, we consider this estimate to be high because we
could not fully account for the many reductions in the supply
noted above .

Moreover, the S42 billion to S68 billion range is
necessarily wide. As emphasized throughout this section, the
data upon which these estimates are based are not sufficiently
precise to support a narrower range of estimates. Given our
knowledge of cocaine use and price, it is unlikely that the
retail sales expenditure on cocaine approaches S68 billion
dollars.'^ When drug expenditures as income in kind are
considered, however, the lower end of this range is consistent
with estimates based on our analysis of drug consumption (Table
13).



60

Rot all of Ut« ■▼ailabl* supply of coc*ln« iaport*d to th« Vnltad States Bay b« conau»*d In a ytvan

jaar: It say go Into invantory or atockpllaa In an affort to Maintain or Incraaaa prlcaa.

61

W« could not davalop an aatlaata for 196fl bacausa ra 1 labia aaiiura data ara unaval labia. Fadaral

Intardlcclon afforta auccaad In capturing aoaa of thm cocalna haadad for U.3. Barkata. Dataraining tha praciaa

amount aaiiad bafora 19S9 la difficult bacauaa tha paaaing of aalaad druga froa ona agancy to anothar (for

•aaapla. fro* tha Coaat Ouard or cuato*a to tha Drug Cnforca«ant Adalnlatratlon) raauitad In •omm doubla* and

9^mn trlpla-counting and/or undarcountlng. In 1909. tba radaral-wlda Drug Saiiura Syacaa (PDSS) waa bayan. ao

that a alngla nuabar la ragtatarad and paaaad with tSa capturad druga to and doubla-countlng. During tKat yaar.

Padaral aganciaa aaliad 99 aatric tona of cocalna. PDSS atatlatlca for 1991 indlcata that about 106 Aatrtc tona

of cocalna. daatlnad for tha iMltad 9tataa. vara aaliad In 1991. Stata an4 local law anforcaaant officara aiao

•alia cocalna. but no Padaral arataa aalata for counting and raporting auch aaliuraa.

1

62

A flgura of 9300 billion waa raportad by tha Latin Aaarlcan Waakly raport. with llttla aubatantlation.

A alallar flgura haa baan cltad by Wabatar and NcCaaipall. attributed to Kolaaa. but tha aourca of thla aatlaata

la obacura 'llftn JTlran Mf^'* â– â– oort V1-91-12. Harch 28. 1991: â– . Wabatar and H Nc^ai^Mll. irvf i^*noivl

WftMT LMunAmrina laaa^f-ch ^d t nwmmtiamt Ian Join Poreaa HIJ Raaaarch In Brlaf. Saptaabar 1992: C. Nolaaa.

r«>v.ft,,p wftn*. f.^rt«ring Kn >ri ■ rtr..- ■.■■rt fcnp.-««^K pollca taacutlva Raaaarch PorvM. Harch 1991). Such

•actaataa aaa« lapoaalbiy imr^* It all %200 billion waa attributable to cocalna. and If 2-3 allllon haavy

cocalna uaara conausa 79 parcant of tha available cocalna. than aach uaar auat be ra^ulrad to apand t^J.OOO per

yeer on cocaine. In contraat. a heroin addict haa baan aatl»ated to apand t261 per waait on hla or her habit

- leaa than 920.000 par year. Kvan if only 9100 billion la attributable to the cocelne aarket. a haavy uaar

of cocalna would apand alaoat $700 on cocaine par w«eM . Thla far aacaeda tha 9420 per week aeeuaad aa tha upper

Ualt that can be cona\Aad by tha aoat co«pulal*e ueer of cocalna Thua . 9200 billion la certainly an

aacaaaiveiy high eatiaata.



31



398



Based on the midpoints of our cocaine supply-based estimates
for 1989 and 1991, we estimate that leaf crops and the maximum
amount of cocaine produced from those crops have increased by
about 11 percent. Perhaps production was increased partly to
offset Increases in foreign country seizures (Table 15). Because
of the increases in foreign seizures, shipments to the United
States increased only by about five metric tons. The amount of
cocaine U.S. authorities seized increased by 8 percent. The net
effect of these increases has been about a 1 percent decrease in
the amount of cocaine available for consumption in the United
States between 1989 and 1991.



TABLE 15

Trends in Cocaine Supply, 1989-1991

(In nacric tons unless otherwise noted)

1989 1990 1991



Coca Leaf Crop^

Maximum Potential
Cocaine HCl Produced^

Seized in Foreign Countries^

Shipped to the United States

Seized by Federal Authorities*

Available for Consumption
in United States

Retail Value in the United States
(S in billions)

4nCSR. 1992 . 28. There is an error in the coca leaf estimate for 1989 in
Bolivia; refer to Bolivia Statistical Table (p. 97) for the correct number.

'This is the amount of cocaine HCl (or pure cocaine) that could have been
produced had there been no seizures, consumption, or losses at any stage of
production.

^ INCSR. 1992: United Nations, INCB, Narcotic Drugs. Statistics for 1990:
and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, National Drug Intelligence Estimate
1990 .

*Drug Enforcement Administration, Federal-wide Drug Seizure System, 1989-
1991.



295,072


305,893


331,140


826


858


930


70


152


199


377-544 .


361-525


382-550


99


107


108


278-445


254-418


274-442


$38-S60


$45-$74


$42-$68



32



399



HEROIN

Poppy plants, from which opium is extracted, are grown in
Southeast Asia, Southwest Asia, and in the Western Hemisphere
(Mexico, Guatemala and Columbia). Opium is converted into heroin
in laboratories in the countries where it is cultivated and in
other countries and then consumed locally or shipped to consumer
countries.

There are two reasons why we cannot develop a supply flow
model for Southwest and Southeast Asia heroin. First, it is
difficult to estimate the total harvest in these areas. For
example, estimates of areas under cultivation in Iran have been
unavailable since the Islamic Republic broke off ties with the
United States. The second problem is that Europe and North
Africa are the primary export markets for heroin from these
regions. This makes it difficult to determine the amount of
heroin shipped to the United States.

In contrast, the United States is the only major market for
Mexican, Guatemalan, and probably Colombian heroin.''
Therefore, we can integrate the heroin production process in the
Western Hemisphere into a computer model similar to the cocaine
model. Using information from the 1992 INCSR on the amount of
land under cultivation and opium yields , we estimated the amount
of heroin available for export to the United States from these
countries. We then used these estimates as the basis for
determining the entire U.S. heroin market. Further, using DEA's
Heroin Signature Program (HSP)" and Domestic Monitor Program
( DMP ) , *' we calculated the U.S. share of the worldwide market



Th« Ko7«l Can*41aci Nount*d rallc« r«^ort tiMt n*slc«n and Cwitral A*arlc«n Karaln In C«n«4« la
n*fll«ibla (liaiP. ■MMojta^ Brya ^nt«lllg «^r^ '■TiaiTl l^^Q 22). According to d«t« on origin* of oolaurvs In
luropo. no courlor* orlglnatod In Httalco ( IntomAClooal Crlalnal Pollco organliaclon. tk* Hmmin tttumni^ iw
'""">* '" "" (Lroaa. franca, rabniair lt«0|.

Thm MarolA tlfnatura PrograB (HaF). ualng a randoa aaa^la fro* all aalluraa and purchaaaa r««lat*r«d
In STVlDt. trlaa to quantify tha U.S. narkat anaraa of aacti of tiia thraa aajor haroln producing raglona. TTia
HSP analriaa JOO to SOO aahlblta annually fron a randan aaapla of purchaaaa and aalluraa nada b« radaral aga n ta.
Thla analrala proba,blr doaa not raflact tha U.S. haroln narkat aa a ohol*. Saa Mnrldwlil« Mamln <ltujtinj» \**a
] Moraovar. tha DKA raperta. 'Chanlcal analyala of haroln aanplaa purportad to hava orlglnatad In Coloakla
hava raaultad In Idantlf Icatlon of tha drug* aa having baa n procaaaad ualng tachnl^uaa Indlganoua to Sauthwaat
Aala and Haalco' (paga 4). Thla could raault In alacalculatlona In tha analfala which follow*, ba c auaa
Incraaaaa aaa^Ma rl to ba froa aourcaa othar than tha waatam Maalaphara nay In fact ba fron Coloabl*.

Tha »osaatlc l«mltor Pragran (MVI. a ratall-loral haroln purchaaa prograa. naoltor* tha aourca of
haroln In about ]0 aatropolltan araaa. Tha DiV aaapla 1« laaa accurata than tha OP aaavla ba c auaa tha aaapllng
procadura la not randoa but. rathar. targata cltlaa with larga haroln narkata. To lapror* tha BiV' a
rapraaontatlsn of tha OS. haroln aarltat. tha parcwitagaa of Haalcan haroln In tha DMP cltlaa hava baan walghtad
br tha DJkMi data on anargancT roan aantlona for haroln uaa . Aaa\Mlng that haroln uaa. a* Indlcatad In DM«.
1* ralatad to guantltla* auppllad to aarbata. tha graatar tha n\^bar of lr,dl*ltfuala a^Uttad to • cltT *
for haroln. tha graatar tha at^plr of haroln to Chat city.

33



400



based on the percentage of Western Hemisphere heroin in the
market."

We estimate that from 21.9 to 32.7 metric tons of heroin
were available in the United States in 1991. We derived these
figures by using the INCSR's estimate of 6.86 metric tons of
heroin from the Western Hemisphere in 1991, and by assuming that
21 percent (based on the HSP ) to 31% (based on the DMP) of the
U.S. market comes from the Western Hemisphere. Discounting for
the 1.38 metric tons Federal authorities seized in 1991, we
estimate the total U.S. heroin market to be 20.5 metric tons to
31.3 metric tons in 1991. Using the midpoints of the estimates
of price per pure gram from Table 5, we estimate the total retail
value of this heroin to be between $26.5 billion and $40.5
billion.

These estimates are well above what we would reasonably
expect. The largest credible estimate of the number of heroin
addicts is about 1 million, and this estimate is considered to
exceed the actual number.'' We reasoned earlier that heroin
addicts are unlikely to spend more than S420 a week, and few are