October, 1993 expanded for release in November, 1993
[Originally published as a column entitled:
THE RATE OF CHANGE OF THE RATE OF CHANGE by Michael S. Hart
In The Electronic Journal of Virtual Culture]
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT COMPUTERS ARE AN INCREDIBLE DEAL
THEY ARE REALLY TWICE AS GOOD A DEAL AS IT SEEMS TO BE
COMPUTERS INCREASED IN VALUE TWICE AS MUCH AS IT APPEARS
SINCE THE FIRST CONSUMER HARD DRIVES BECAME AVAILABLE IN
APPROXIMATELY 1979
WHERE DOES OUR MONEY GO?
Many of you are aware that the $3,000 you spent on computers
last year could be replaced by $2,000 spent today. However,
only recently have I actually purchased computer gear that I
bought with dollars that were only half as valuable as those
with which one of my drives was purchased in 1979.
Many of you are aware that the average personal computer was
$5,000 - $10,000 some 10 - 15 years ago when Apples and IBMs
first appeared on the scene, but you might not be aware of a
trend beyond the price reduction that makes today's computer
prices an even better bargain in comparison.
In fact, computers today are TWICE as good a bargain as they
appear in comparisons with those early computers, and it was
already looking as if they were bargains beyond all belief.
In earlier articles I mentioned the fact that today's cheapy
486 DX2/66 computers were 100 times as fast as the originals
from IBM, and were likely to also have 100 time as much hard
drive storage. [After all, the original PC didn't even have
hard drives, and still cost a fortune.]
Here are a few examples to jog your memory:
These are "bare bones" prices for the computer systems; when
filled out with color monitors, printers, ports, modems, and
the rest of an average computer system, these prices usually
doubled, and the prices I usually quote as modern comparison
figures include VGA, printer, modem, mouse, and software.
1979 Konan 5M External Hard Drive Kit for Apples $3,000
1981 PC-DOS CP/M 1-Floppy 128K-RAM serial-parallel $2,000
1983 PC-XT added 3 slots and 10M hard drive $3,600
1983 PC to XT Upgrade kit with 5M ST-506 Hard Drive $1,500
1984 PC-AT 1.2M Floppy 256K-RAM no ports 3x faster $4,000
1984 PC-AT Enhanced added 20M hard drive no ports $5,800
[These two Hard Drive Kits both included the ST-506 drives -
but the Apple was External while the IBM was Internal: both
were from third-party vendors.]
Back in those days extra floppy drives from Apple or IBM for
around $325 to $475 respectively [and don't forget that many
of these floppies were single sided and held around 150K but
we only tend to remember the double sided floppies. If your
memory includes "flippies" you know what I mean. (Flippies:
single sided floppy disks which were notched so you could do
a "flip-over" with the floppy, and use the other side, which
was supposed to be unusable but which in most cases was just
as good as the side you actually paid for. Don't forget the
floppy disks started at $10 each, with dollars that were the
equivalent of $2 in 1993 dollars: so, each time you punched
a notch and turned one over, you basically gained $20 in the
money we use today. You then also needed only half as much,
in terms of physical shelf space, to store as much data. It
might stagger the present day mind to actually think of that
monstrous storage problem we had when we wanted to store any
huge books, such as the Bible, on single sided floppies.
The two points I want to make here are that for the cheapest
of these machine prices back then, you can now get a machine
that is 100 times faster with 100 times the disk space: and
that the same is true for the most expensive AND that prices
today are actually half what they appear to be in comparison
to the prices listed above.
So, when you spend $3,000 on computer gear today, you are in
fact only spending half as much as was spent back in '79 for
the Konan drive. . .you are really only spending $1,500 from
1979. . .due to changes in the value of the dollar as per an
assortment of Consumer Price Index figures [none of which is
in agreement with any of the others, so you are encouraged a
bit to look up additional information on the subject. These
figures [below] are presented only to provide a continuum to
make comparisons. Actually these figures are a conservative
estimate [as most government figures seem to be [example, no
double digit inflation for any year since 1947, which was an
extremely good year, by the way.]
So, while other prices were rising to make up for weakenings
in the dollar. . .you are probably aware that your expenses,
in general, have just about exactly doubled since 1979, when
we bought that first hard drive for $3,000. Those $3,000 in
a bank account that created no real profit other than enough
interest to keep up with the Cost of Living increases, would
now be $6,000 and would buy you a computer more powerful and
with more RAM and hard drive space than most of you want. A
Pentium with 8 megabytes of RAM and adding several gigabytes
of hard drive, or a 486 with even more RAM and hard drive.
While the prices of everything else had been going up at 5%,
6%, 7%, 8%, 9% a year, the price of computers has gone down,
at about 33% per year. . .a truly astonishing rate that lets
you buy something hundreds of times better for less than the
price was just 10 or 15 years ago.
Below you will find a short index of the computers we bought
since 1979, and then a price index from 1875 to 2010 in case
you want to look up some prices mentioned in certain years a
decade or a century ago would actually be today.
For example, a teenager watching Roger Rabbit mentioned that
the $100 Bob Hoskins received for working on the case was an
extremely low figure. However, an examination of the figure
below for 1947 will reveal that prices then were about 17.5%
which would make Hoskins' fee about $600 in our 1993 dollars
we use today. . .even if the physical dollars are the same.
So, what happens to the value that was lost from our dollars
that do not buy as much by a factor of 17.5% since 1947 ?
Let's imagine for a moment that we are financial wizards and
have all the financial connections open to such wizards; the
early 1970's are a perfect example: Nixon is in office, and
he releases the dollar from the $35 per ounce price supports
the dollar has had since Roosevelt took us off the standards
of direct gold exchange to end the Depression in the 1930's.
As an example, we send a million of our dollars to somewhere
we CAN buy gold [it was illegal then for US citizens to have
gold, unless they were coin collectors or worked gold in the
professions, such as dentistry, jewelry, etc.]
So, we have bought a million dollars worth of gold at around
$35 per ounce, which was a pretty fixed price at the time.
Now, the price restrictions of $35 per ounce are removed and
the price of gold goes up to $755 per ounce, just about what
it did during the next few months after the price release.
Now our gold is worth 21 times as many dollars as it was, so
we now can sell the gold and get 21 million dollars.
When we spend this 21 million dollars, we are competing with
all the other dollars in the marketplace, and prices have to
go up as a result, because there are now more dollars but no
more anything else. . .so dollars get cheap, and all dollars
everywhere give up a percentage of their value to pay for an
increase in the number of dollars WE have. So, if all these
dollars lose 5% of their value, then we can buy a 20 million
dollar share of the future with our 21 million dollars while
everyone else loses 5% of the money they let sit in pockets,
under the mattress, or wherever.
Half of the value of every dollar disappeared from 1979-1993
[a period in which the Cost/Price Indexes rose at about 6%].
And those 1979 dollars would buy only half as much as a 1969
dollar bought, when prices were rising even more quickly.
And those 1969 dollars were buying only half of what dollars
bought in 1947.
Here are the doubling years:
2010
1993
1979
1969
1947
1916 and 1933 had similar costs, about half those of 1947;
these fluctuations were caused by WW I and Depression
1898 was also a very low point, but prices before this had
been quite stable by today's standards, with 1989 and
1899 being the only two exceptions: which happened to
cancel each other out fairly well
Thus, approximately, prices in 2010 will be double what is
the case in 1993, just as 1993 was double 1979; 1979 which
was double 1969, which was double 1947, which was double a
spread around WW I and the Depression.
With 1993 labeled as "1.00000" the value of a dollar which
is expected to be spent in 2010 will be "0.50000" or fifty
cents.
2010 $1 buys $0.50 worth of 1993 dollars
1993 $1 buys $1.00 worth of 1993 dollars
1979 $1 buys $2.00 worth of 1993 dollars
1969 $1 buys $4.00 worth of 1993 dollars
1947 $1 buys $8.00 worth of 1993 dollars
1916 and 1933 $1 buys $16.00 worth of 1993 dollars
1898 $1 buys $32.00 worth of 1993 dollars
[These are obviously gross approximations:
more exact figures are presented below.]
Here are some less conservative estimates, from other sources:
Based on an estimated 17% increase from 1989 to 1993 [4%/year]
Prices doubled as follows:
1982 to 1993
1973 to 1982
1950 to 1973
1993 1.17xxxx
1978 0.573016
1968 0.299207
1946 0.153972
Note fluctuations for WWI, WWII, and Depression:
these come close to these doublings, but not for
a permanent trend.
1916 0.090478
1915 0.075394
1898 0.047620 Was the lowest trend:
which provides for the widest possible span of
1993 1.17xxxx
to
1898 0.047620
with prices being some 25 times higher in 1993 than 1898,
for price increase of 2400% over those 95 years.
Many of you have seen the figures I have presented as evidence
of the fact that current trends lead to HOLDING THE LIBRARY OF
CONGRESS IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND WITHIN THE AVERAGE LIFETIME.
[Of course if they will let you HAVE the Library of Congress].
These figures range from the first 5 megabyte hard drives used
in our very first mainframe, through the first 5M Apple drive,
to the same drive running on an IBM, to our current 1.2G drive
that cost less than ANY of our previous drives and has storage
for twice as much data.
Of course, since I used only the real prices we paid for drive
after drive, it was only a matter of time until the cost/price
index would begin to play an important role, and we now have a
database of drive prices long enough that the $3,000 price for
the Konan 5M External ST506 Apple Hard Drive Kit in 1979 was a
mere half of what it would be in today's 1993 dollars. Thus:
The first 5 1/4 hard drive we got [Seagate-ST506] should be at
$6,000 in today's pricing index, or, conversely, we should see
that the $850 we paid for a Toshiba 1.2G drive is really only:
$425 per 1200 megabytes. . .in 1979 dollars.
each 5M added was about $1500
1979 $3000 per 5M at $600/M [Same ST506 drive as I got in 1983, but
1980 set up as external drive for the Apple]
1981 Prices unstable early on
1982
Prices VERY stable now, falling by about 1/3 per year.
1983 $1500 per 5M at $300/M (Please see footnotes directly below)*
1984 $1950 per 10M at $195/M (only Seagate drive in 1985 Blue Book)*
1985 $1500 per 20M at $75/M (some disagreement about the year here)
1986 $1500 per 40M at $37.50/M
1986 $1595 per 80M at $20/M - > (IBM listed in Blue Book as 1984 price)
1987 $1500 per 80M at $19/M (but I never saw until two years later)
1988 $1500 per 120M at $12.50/M
1989 $1500 per 200M at $7.50/M
1990 $1500 per 300M at $5/M
1992 $1000 per 1000M at $1/M [In Summer 1993 we got a Toshiba 1200 Meg]
1993 $666 per 1000M at $.67/M [Actual cost was $.71/M at $850 per 1200M]
1994 $444 per 1000M at $.44/M [IBM in 1993 was $.50/M @ $4000 per 8000M]
1994 $296 per 1000M at $.30/M
1995 $198 per 1000M at $.20/M
1996 $132 per 1000M at $.13/M
1997 $88 per 1000M at $.08/M
1998 $58 per 1000M at $.06/M
1999 $39 per 1000M at $.04/M
2000 $26 per 1000M at $.03/M
2001 $17 per 1000M at $.02/M
2002 $12 per 1000M at $.01/M
Disclaimer: most of these are personal recollections,
but are close to estimates I have looked up, as below.
[How is it that 1985 and 1990 can seem so LONG ago!?!]
*Suggested resale price was $771 in 1983, still over $150/M
*(by the 1987 edition, resale price was $89, only $9/M)
*Shugart and Tandon were not listed
*IBM DID list a 20M for $1595, only $80/M, couldn't find one
*IBM listed 360K floppies at $425 and 1.2M floppies at $650
*floppies dropping at 33%/yr are now under $100, of course,
*IBM 512K RAM cards were $1125, 256K RAM cards were $295
*IBM 128K RAM cards were $350
The price in current 1993 dollars for any year is found in
the first column. Thus you can see that a one dollar item
from 1993 will cost about $1.95 in 2010.
The value of the dollars used in any particular year would
be found in the second column [value compared to 1993]. A
dollar in 2010 will be worth about $.51 1993 dollars while
a dollar from 1978-9 would be worth about $2.00 now.
To remind you that these figures are presented ONLY as an indicator
and not as anything approaching reality, here are an additional set
of examples from a different report, for several sample years. You
can easily see [where we have integrated them below in the 1989 set
of figures] that not only are the adjustments sometimes quite high,
but that figures from different reports aren't always even remotely
close to each other.
As an example, while working on these figures I noticed a lack of a
period of "double digit inflation" commonly referred to in most all
recent reports on these economic trends. I checked this with local
sources in the field, and was given the following figures which did
include [just barely] some "double digit inflation", but only for a
few years of the 70's and early 80's.
In short, continue to beware of statistics, and please be advised a
bit that while these figures MAY have a certain consistency, within
the columns, that there relation to reality is probably far from an
intensely accurate reflection of real prices over the century.
***
Additional figures from:
Economic Report of the President
base year 82-84
D-D indicates prices from the end of one year
the end of the previous year. . .December
to December is the official terminology.
The adjusted rise is the percentage equivalent to the change
in adjusted prices.
% is Dec to Dec on unadjusted indexes %2 is year to adjusted
Adjusted Rise
Year Price D-D Adj%
1991 136.2 3.1 4.2*
1990 130.7 6.1 5.4
1989 124.0 4.6 4.8
1988 118.3 4.4 4.1
1987 113.6 4.4 3.6
1986 109.6 1.1 1.9
1985 107.6 3.8 3.6
1984 103.9 3.9 4.3
1983 99.6 3.8 3.2
***
1993 1.169856 [based on 1989 as 1.000000 base year]
1992 1.124864 [and based on 4.0000% inflation rate]
1991 1.081600
1990 1.040000
Prices will double from 1989 to 2007 at 4.0000%
Prices will double from 1989 to 2012 at 3.0000%
Average price rise for 20 year period 1970-1989 is about 6% [5.94%]
Average price rise for 30 year period 1960-1989 is about 5% [4.89%]
Average price rise for 40 year period 1950-1989 is about 4% [4.32%]
1991 3.1 4.2*
1990 6.1 5.4
Old$/1989$ 1989$/Old$ Yearly % D-D Adj
1989 1.000000 1.000000 3.8744% 4.6 4.8
1988 0.962701 1.038744 3.3218% 4.4 4.1
1987 0.931750 1.073249 3.1640% 4.4 3.6
1986 0.903174 1.107206 2.6144% 1.1 1.9
1985 0.880163 1.136153 2.9714% 3.8 3.6
1984 0.854764 1.169913 3.6577% 3.9 4.3
1983 0.824603 1.212705 3.8998% 3.8 3.2
1982 0.793652 1.259998 6.3832% 3.8 6.2
1981 0.746032 1.340426 9.6842% 8.9 10.3
1980 0.680163 1.470235 9.0331% 12.5 13.5
1979 0.623814 1.603043 8.8650% 13.3 11.3
1978 0.573016 1.745153 7.2812%
1977 0.534125 1.872221 6.6559%
1976 0.500793 1.996834 6.4072%
1975 0.470638 2.124776 9.8160% 6.9 9.1
1974 0.428570 2.333344 9.0908% 12.3 11.0
1973 0.392856 2.545462 6.4508%
1972 0.369049 2.709666 4.7305%
1971 0.352380 2.837848 5.7132%
1970 0.333336 2.999980 5.5271%
1969 0.315877 3.165791 5.5712%
1968 0.299207 3.342164 5.0148%
1967 0.284919 3.509767 2.5719%
1966 0.277775 3.600034 3.5483%
1965 0.268256 3.727776 2.7360%
1964 0.261112 3.829768 1.5426%
1963 0.257146 3.888845 1.5695%
1962 0.253172 3.949879 2.2421%
1961 0.247620 4.038441 0.9710%
1960 0.245239 4.077655 1.6441%
1959 0.241272 4.144695 2.3583%
1958 0.235714 4.242437 2.0622%
1957 0.230951 4.329926 3.5573%
1956 0.223018 4.483953 3.3094%
1955 0.215873 4.632344 3.4226%
1954 0.208729 4.790892 1.5425%
1953 0.205559 4.864789 1.5700%
1952 0.202381 4.941167 1.5950%
1951 0.199204 5.019980 5.0181%
1950 0.189685 5.271890 1.7036%
1949 0.186508 5.361703 -0.4250%
1948 0.187304 5.338916 6.7885%
1947 0.175397 5.701346 13.9152% 8.8 14.4
1946 0.153972 6.494699 22.7889% 18.1 8.3
1945 0.125395 7.974769 3.2667%
1944 0.121429 8.235278 1.3228%
1943 0.119843 8.344216 2.7235%
1942 0.116666 8.571470 6.5229%
1941 0.109522 9.130582 6.1527%
1940 0.103174 9.692363 2.3626%
1939 0.100793 9.921357 -1.5485%
1938 0.102378 9.767725 -1.5313%
1937 0.103970 9.618155 3.9665%
1936 0.100003 9.999663 0.0000%
1935 0.100003 9.999663 3.2815%
1934 0.096826 10.327806 8.9329%
1933 0.088886 11.250379 -2.6092%
1932 0.091267 10.956833 -11.5405%
1931 0.103174 9.692363 -8.4521%
1930 0.112699 8.873159 -2.7364%
1929 0.115870 8.630356 0.0000%
1928 0.115870 8.630356 -0.6823%
1927 0.116666 8.571470 0.0000%
1926 0.116666 8.571470 -2.0003%
1925 0.119047 8.400011 0.6732%
1924 0.118251 8.456558 2.0552%
1923 0.115870 8.630356 0.0000%
1922 0.115870 8.630356 2.8134%
1921 0.112699 8.873159 -7.1889%
1920 0.121429 8.235278 -13.0687%
1919 0.139684 7.159036 15.7924%
1918 0.120633 8.289621 14.2839%
1917 0.105555 9.473701 16.6642%
1916 0.090478 11.052416 20.0072%
1915 0.075394 13.263690 9.1939%
1914 0.069046 14.483146 2.3500%
1913 0.067460 14.823500 1.1941%
1912 0.066664 15.000506 1.1982%
1911 0.065875 15.180236 2.4767%
1910 0.064283 15.556197 0.0000%
1909 0.064283 15.556197 3.8470%
1908 0.061902 16.154643 0.0000%
1907 0.061902 16.154643 -2.5074%
1906 0.063494 15.749575 5.2679%
1905 0.060316 16.579242 2.6993%
1904 0.058731 17.026763 0.0000%
1903 0.058731 17.026763 1.3740%
1902 0.057935 17.260713 2.8134%
1901 0.056350 17.746319 1.4329%
1900 0.055554 18.000607 0.0000%
1899 0.055554 18.000607 16.6596%
1898 0.047620 20.999433 -10.4415%
1897 0.053172 18.806775 0.0000%
1896 0.053172 18.806775 -1.4750%
1895 0.053968 18.529375 1.4971%
1894 0.053172 18.806775 -1.4750%
1893 0.053968 18.529375 -5.5601%
1892 0.057146 17.499115 0.0000%
1891 0.057146 17.499115 -1.3624%
1890 0.057935 17.260713 0.0000%
1889 0.057935 17.260713 -2.6745%
1888 0.059527 16.799071 0.0000%
1887 0.059527 16.799071 1.3554%
1886 0.058731 17.026763 1.3740%
1885 0.057935 17.260713 -1.3554%
1884 0.058731 17.026763 -1.3373%
1883 0.059527 16.799071 -5.0570%
1882 0.062698 15.949537 -3.6592%
1881 0.065079 15.365917 2.4968%
1880 0.063494 15.749575 0.0000%
1879 0.063494 15.749575 5.2679%
1878 0.060316 16.579242 -3.7981%
1877 0.062698 15.949537 -5.9502%
1876 0.066664 15.000506 -1.1800%
1875 0.067460 14.823500
BASE YEAR: 1993 [1993 dollars = 1.000000]
Year Year/1993 1993/Year Year/Previous Year
[Keep the above line for reference on other years]
2010 1.947900 0.513373 4% Est.
2009 1.872980 0.533908 4% Est.
2008 1.800943 0.555265 4% Est.
2007 1.731676 0.577475 4% Est.
2006 1.665072 0.600574 4% Est.
2005 1.601031 0.624597 4% Est.
2004 1.539454 0.649581 4% Est.
2003 1.480243 0.675565 4% Est.
2002 1.423312 0.702587 4% Est.
2001 1.368568 0.730691 4% Est.
2000 1.315931 0.759918 4% Est.
1999 1.265318 0.790315 4% Est.
1998 1.216653 0.821927 4% Est.
1997 1.169858 0.854805 4% Est.
1996 1.124864 0.888997 4% Est.
1995 1.081600 0.924557 4% Est.
1994 1.040000 0.961539 4% Est.
1993 1.000000 1.000000 4% Est.
1992 0.961538 1.040000 4% Est.
1991 0.924556 1.081600 4% Est.
1990 0.888996 1.124864 4% Est.
1989 0.854804 1.169859 3.8744%
1988 0.822921 1.215184 3.3218%
1987 0.796464 1.255550 3.1640%
1986 0.772037 1.295275 2.6144%
1985 0.752367 1.329139 2.9715%
1984 0.730656 1.368634 3.6576%
1983 0.704874 1.418694 3.8998%
1982 0.678417 1.474020 6.3831%
1981 0.637711 1.568108 9.6843%
1980 0.581406 1.719969 9.0330%
1979 0.533239 1.875333 8.8650%
1978 0.489816 2.041582 7.2813%
1977 0.456572 2.190234 6.6558%
1976 0.428080 2.336013 6.4073%
1975 0.402303 2.485688 9.8159%
1974 0.366343 2.729680 9.0909%
1973 0.335815 2.977832 6.4509%
1972 0.315465 3.169929 4.7304%
1971 0.301216 3.319879 5.7132%
1970 0.284937 3.509549 5.5272%
1969 0.270013 3.703527 5.5714%
1968 0.255763 3.909865 5.0148%
1967 0.243550 4.105935 2.5719%
1966 0.237443 4.211535 3.5485%
1965 0.229306 4.360980 2.7360%
1964 0.223200 4.480296 1.5423%
1963 0.219809 4.549396 1.5697%
1962 0.216412 4.620807 2.2421%
1961 0.211667 4.724412 0.9709%
1960 0.209631 4.770281 1.6442%
1959 0.206240 4.848714 2.3579%
1958 0.201489 4.963044 2.0623%
1957 0.197418 5.065399 3.5571%
1956 0.190637 5.245581 3.3098%
1955 0.184529 5.419200 3.4226%
1954 0.178422 5.604679 1.5421%
1953 0.175713 5.691111 1.5703%
1952 0.172996 5.780478 1.5948%
1951 0.170280 5.872668 5.0183%
1950 0.162143 6.167377 1.7034%
1949 0.159428 6.272433 -0.4250%
1948 0.160108 6.245777 6.7886%
1947 0.149930 6.669778 13.9149%
1946 0.131616 7.597868 22.7896%
1945 0.107188 9.329391 3.2661%
1944 0.103798 9.634099 1.3234%
1943 0.102442 9.761596 2.7232%
1942 0.099727 10.027420 6.5229%
1941 0.093620 10.681498 6.1527%
1940 0.088194 11.338700 2.3623%
1939 0.086158 11.606550 -1.5482%
1938 0.087513 11.426859 -1.5312%
1937 0.088874 11.251890 3.9669%
1936 0.085483 11.698239 0.0000%
1935 0.085483 11.698239 3.2811%
1934 0.082767 12.082075 8.9328%
1933 0.075980 13.161341 -2.6088%
1932 0.078015 12.817985 -11.5407%
1931 0.088194 11.338700 -8.4517%
1930 0.096336 10.380385 -2.7367%
1929 0.099046 10.096306 0.0000%
1928 0.099046 10.096306 -0.6823%
1927 0.099727 10.027420 0.0000%
1926 0.099727 10.027420 -2.0001%
1925 0.101762 9.826867 0.6731%
1924 0.101081 9.893016 2.0549%
1923 0.099046 10.096306 0.0000%
1922 0.099046 10.096306 2.8137%
1921 0.096336 10.380385 -7.1894%
1920 0.103798 9.634099 -13.0688%
1919 0.119402 8.375039 15.7925%
1918 0.103118 9.697670 14.2845%
1917 0.090229 11.082933 16.6637%
1916 0.077341 12.929762 20.0069%
1915 0.064447 15.516606 9.1939%
1914 0.059021 16.943183 2.3510%
1913 0.057665 17.341521 1.1940%
1912 0.056985 17.548587 1.1977%
1911 0.056310 17.758770 2.4765%
1910 0.054949 18.198575 0.0000%
1909 0.054949 18.198575 3.8464%
1908 0.052914 18.898565 0.0000%
1907 0.052914 18.898565 -2.5073%
1906 0.054275 18.424717 5.2689%
1905 0.051558 19.395500 2.6987%
1904 0.050203 19.918935 0.0000%
1903 0.050203 19.918935 1.3740%
1902 0.049523 20.192612 2.8128%
1901 0.048168 20.760586 1.4328%
1900 0.047488 21.058052 0.0000%
1899 0.047488 21.058052 16.6611%
1898 0.040706 24.566548 -10.4416%
1897 0.045452 22.001411 0.0000%
1896 0.045452 22.001411 -1.4749%
1895 0.046132 21.676901 1.4970%
1894 0.045452 22.001411 -1.4749%
1893 0.046132 21.676901 -5.5612%
1892 0.048849 20.471407 0.0000%
1891 0.048849 20.471407 -1.3619%
1890 0.049523 20.192612 0.0000%
1889 0.049523 20.192612 -2.6744%
1888 0.050884 19.652578 0.0000%
1887 0.050884 19.652578 1.3553%
1886 0.050203 19.918935 1.3740%
1885 0.049523 20.192612 -1.3553%
1884 0.050203 19.918935 -1.3372%
1883 0.050884 19.652578 -5.0576%
1882 0.053594 18.658633 -3.6586%
1881 0.055630 17.975983 2.4963%
1880 0.054275 18.424717 0.0000%
1879 0.054275 18.424717 5.2689%
1878 0.051558 19.395500 -3.7992%
1877 0.053594 18.658633 -5.9492%
1876 0.056985 17.548587 -1.1800%
1875 0.057665 17.341521
This index will allow you to estimate the cost of any item
in the dollars of any year included in the index.
Example: You know the cost of an item in 1900 was $1, and
you want to know the cost it would have had in 1989 dollar
figures [i.e. "adjusting for inflation"].
First go to the base year of 1900, in which 1.000000 is an
estimated base for the year 1900.
Then look for the 1989 figure in the 1900 table:
1989 18.000607 0.055554
This indicates that the item costing $1 in 1900 would cost
approximately $18 in 1989.
The second column is the inverse function, meaning an item
costing $1 in 1989 would have cost about $.05 or $.06 back
in the year 1900.
You should be able to find some interesting trends such as
that prices were falling back in 1875 as industrial growth
swept the United States and the West was being developed.
[Based on an item costing $67 in 1875 {$1,000 in 1989}]
Prices fell from $67 to $47 from 1875 to 1898, in a rather
steady progression, and then rather steadily rose back for
the next two decades until World War I, until they reached
$67 again in 1913 and $69 in 1914, which were the last two
years of moderate inflation until after 1919, when pricing
dropped from a high of $139 after doubling since 1914.
Prices stabilized during the rest of the 1920's about $110
until 1930, and the Great Depression, in which prices fell
to $88 in 1933 and then back to the ranges of the 1920's -
until around the end of World War II, when prices went out
of control, rising from an average of around $120 for WWII
on the whole to $200 in 1951. It took 17 years to hit the
$300 level in 1968 and 22 years to double to $400 in 1973.
From 1973 it took only 9 years to double again to $800 for
the year 1982.
[At 7% per year, it takes 10 years for inflation to cut $1
to $.05, at 1% it takes 70 years, at 3% it is 23 years and
at 4% it takes about 18 years]. Based on 4% inflation, it
will be
1990 1.040000 [based on 1989 as 1.000000 base year]
1991 1.081600 [and based on 4.0000% inflation rate]
1992 1.124864
1993 1.169856
which would be an 11 year span for prices to double, since
they were at 0.793652 in 1982 to 1.169856, projected 1993]
Below are files for every year on this chart independently listed
with that year as the base year, so you can look up for instance,
what something from 1930 would have cost in 1950, or the reverse.
YEAR: 2010
2010 1.000000 1.000000 4% Est.
2009 0.961538 1.040000 4% Est.
2008 0.924556 1.081600 4% Est.
2007 0.888997 1.124864 4% Est.
2006 0.854804 1.169859 4% Est.
2005 0.821927 1.216653 4% Est.
2004 0.790315 1.265319 4% Est.
2003 0.759918 1.315932 4% Est.
2002 0.730690 1.368569 4% Est.
2001 0.702587 1.423312 4% Est.
2000 0.675564 1.480244 4% Est.
1999 0.649581 1.539454 4% Est.
1998 0.624597 1.601032 4% Est.
1997 0.600574 1.665074 4% Est.
1996 0.577475 1.731676 4% Est.
1995 0.555265 1.800943 4% Est.
1994 0.533908 1.872981 4% Est.
1993 0.513373 1.947900 4% Est.
1992 0.493628 2.025816 4% Est.
1991 0.474642 2.106849 4% Est.
1990 0.456387 2.191123 4% Est.
1989 0.438834 2.278768 3.8744%
1988 0.422466 2.367057 3.3218%
1987 0.408883 2.445686 3.1640%
1986 0.396343 2.523066 2.6144%
1985 0.386245 2.589030 2.9715%
1984 0.375099 2.665962 3.6576%
1983 0.361864 2.763473 3.8998%
1982 0.348281 2.871243 6.3831%
1981 0.327384 3.054518 9.6843%
1980 0.298478 3.350326 9.0330%
1979 0.273751 3.652961 8.8650%
1978 0.251459 3.976796 7.2813%
1977 0.234392 4.266357 6.6558%
1976 0.219765 4.550319 6.4073%
1975 0.206532 4.841870 9.8159%
1974 0.188071 5.317143 9.0909%
1973 0.172398 5.800517 6.4509%
1972 0.161951 6.174703 4.7304%
1971 0.154636 6.466792 5.7132%
1970 0.146279 6.836249 5.5272%
1969 0.138617 7.214099 5.5714%
1968 0.131302 7.616025 5.0148%
1967 0.125032 7.997950 2.5719%
1966 0.121897 8.203647 3.5485%
1965 0.117720 8.494751 2.7360%
1964 0.114585 8.727167 1.5423%
1963 0.112844 8.861767 1.5697%
1962 0.111100 9.000869 2.2421%
1961 0.108664 9.202682 0.9709%
1960 0.107619 9.292029 1.6442%
1959 0.105878 9.444809 2.3579%
1958 0.103439 9.667512 2.0623%
1957 0.101349 9.866890 3.5571%
1956 0.097868 10.217866 3.3098%
1955 0.094732 10.556058 3.4226%
1954 0.091597 10.917352 1.5421%
1953 0.090206 11.085713 1.5703%
1952 0.088812 11.259792 1.5948%
1951 0.087417 11.439369 5.0183%
1950 0.083240 12.013433 1.7034%
1949 0.081846 12.218071 -0.4250%
1948 0.082195 12.166147 6.7886%
1947 0.076970 12.992058 13.9149%
1946 0.067568 14.799886 22.7896%
1945 0.055028 18.172718 3.2661%
1944 0.053287 18.766258 1.3234%
1943 0.052591 19.014611 2.7232%
1942 0.051197 19.532409 6.5229%
1941 0.048062 20.806486 6.1527%
1940 0.045276 22.086650 2.3623%
1939 0.044231 22.608395 -1.5482%
1938 0.044927 22.258376 -1.5312%
1937 0.045626 21.917553 3.9669%
1936 0.043885 22.786996 0.0000%
1935 0.043885 22.786996 3.2811%
1934 0.042491 23.534670 8.9328%
1933 0.039006 25.636973 -2.6088%
1932 0.040051 24.968148 -11.5407%
1931 0.045276 22.086650 -8.4517%
1930 0.049456 20.219949 -2.7367%
1929 0.050848 19.666592 0.0000%
1928 0.050848 19.666592 -0.6823%
1927 0.051197 19.532409 0.0000%
1926 0.051197 19.532409 -2.0001%
1925 0.052242 19.141751 0.6731%
1924 0.051893 19.270602 2.0549%
1923 0.050848 19.666592 0.0000%
1922 0.050848 19.666592 2.8137%
1921 0.049456 20.219949 -7.1894%
1920 0.053287 18.766258 -13.0688%
1919 0.061298 16.313737 15.7925%
1918 0.052938 18.890088 14.2845%
1917 0.046321 21.588442 16.6637%
1916 0.039705 25.185879 20.0069%
1915 0.033085 30.224792 9.1939%
1914 0.030300 33.003621 2.3510%
1913 0.029604 33.779543 1.1940%
1912 0.029254 34.182887 1.1977%
1911 0.028908 34.592304 2.4765%
1910 0.028210 35.448999 0.0000%
1909 0.028210 35.448999 3.8464%
1908 0.027165 36.812510 0.0000%
1907 0.027165 36.812510 -2.5073%
1906 0.027863 35.889501 5.2689%
1905 0.026469 37.780489 2.6987%
1904 0.025773 38.800089 0.0000%
1903 0.025773 38.800089 1.3740%
1902 0.025424 39.333184 2.8128%
1901 0.024728 40.439539 1.4328%
1900 0.024379 41.018973 0.0000%
1899 0.024379 41.018973 16.6611%
1898 0.020897 47.853171 -10.4416%
1897 0.023334 42.856541 0.0000%
1896 0.023334 42.856541 -1.4749%
1895 0.023683 42.224429 1.4970%
1894 0.023334 42.856541 -1.4749%
1893 0.023683 42.224429 -5.5612%
1892 0.025078 39.876247 0.0000%
1891 0.025078 39.876247 -1.3619%
1890 0.025424 39.333184 0.0000%
1889 0.025424 39.333184 -2.6744%
1888 0.026122 38.281251 0.0000%
1887 0.026122 38.281251 1.3553%
1886 0.025773 38.800089 1.3740%
1885 0.025424 39.333184 -1.3553%
1884 0.025773 38.800089 -1.3372%
1883 0.026122 38.281251 -5.0576%
1882 0.027514 36.345147 -3.6586%
1881 0.028559 35.015412 2.4963%
1880 0.027863 35.889501 0.0000%
1879 0.027863 35.889501 5.2689%
1878 0.026469 37.780489 -3.7992%
1877 0.027514 36.345147 -5.9492%
1876 0.029254 34.182887 -1.1800%
1875 0.029604 33.779543
YEAR: 2009
2010 1.040000 0.961538 4% Est.
2009 1.000000 1.000000 4% Est.
2008 0.961538 1.040000 4% Est.
2007 0.924556 1.081600 4% Est.
2006 0.888996 1.124864 4% Est.
2005 0.854804 1.169859 4% Est.
2004 0.821927 1.216652 4% Est.
2003 0.790314 1.265319 4% Est.
2002 0.759918 1.315931 4% Est.
2001 0.730690 1.368569 4% Est.
2000 0.702587 1.423312 4% Est.
1999 0.675564 1.480244 4% Est.
1998 0.649581 1.539454 4% Est.
1997 0.624597 1.601032 4% Est.
1996 0.600574 1.665073 4% Est.
1995 0.577475 1.731676 4% Est.
1994 0.555265 1.800943 4% Est.
1993 0.533908 1.872980 4% Est.
1992 0.513373 1.947900 4% Est.
1991 0.493628 2.025816 4% Est.
1990 0.474642 2.106849 4% Est.
1989 0.456387 2.191123 3.8744%
1988 0.439364 2.276016 3.3218%
1987 0.425239 2.351621 3.1640%
1986 0.412197 2.426025 2.6144%
1985 0.401695 2.489451 2.9715%
1984 0.390103 2.563425 3.6576%
1983 0.376338 2.657185 3.8998%
1982 0.362212 2.760811 6.3831%
1981 0.340479 2.937036 9.6843%
1980 0.310418 3.221468 9.0330%
1979 0.284701 3.512462 8.8650%
1978 0.261517 3.823843 7.2813%
1977 0.243768 4.102266 6.6558%
1976 0.228555 4.375307 6.4073%
1975 0.214793 4.655644 9.8159%
1974 0.195594 5.112637 9.0909%
1973 0.179294 5.577420 6.4509%
1972 0.168429 5.937214 4.7304%
1971 0.160822 6.218069 5.7132%
1970 0.152130 6.573316 5.5272%
1969 0.144162 6.936634 5.5714%
1968 0.136554 7.323101 5.0148%
1967 0.130033 7.690337 2.5719%
1966 0.126773 7.888122 3.5485%
1965 0.122429 8.168030 2.7360%
1964 0.119168 8.391506 1.5423%
1963 0.117358 8.520930 1.5697%
1962 0.115544 8.654681 2.2421%
1961 0.113011 8.848732 0.9709%
1960 0.111924 8.934643 1.6442%
1959 0.110113 9.081547 2.3579%
1958 0.107577 9.295685 2.0623%
1957 0.105403 9.487393 3.5571%
1956 0.101783 9.824871 3.3098%
1955 0.098522 10.150056 3.4226%
1954 0.095261 10.497454 1.5421%
1953 0.093814 10.659339 1.5703%
1952 0.092364 10.826723 1.5948%
1951 0.090914 10.999393 5.0183%
1950 0.086570 11.551377 1.7034%
1949 0.085120 11.748145 -0.4250%
1948 0.085483 11.698218 6.7886%
1947 0.080049 12.492363 13.9149%
1946 0.070271 14.230659 22.7896%
1945 0.057229 17.473767 3.2661%
1944 0.055419 18.044479 1.3234%
1943 0.054695 18.283279 2.7232%
1942 0.053245 18.781162 6.5229%
1941 0.049984 20.006236 6.1527%
1940 0.047087 21.237162 2.3623%
1939 0.046001 21.738841 -1.5482%
1938 0.046724 21.402284 -1.5312%
1937 0.047451 21.074570 3.9669%
1936 0.045640 21.910573 0.0000%
1935 0.045640 21.910573 3.2811%
1934 0.044190 22.629490 8.9328%
1933 0.040566 24.650935 -2.6088%
1932 0.041653 24.007834 -11.5407%
1931 0.047087 21.237162 -8.4517%
1930 0.051434 19.442258 -2.7367%
1929 0.052882 18.910184 0.0000%
1928 0.052882 18.910184 -0.6823%
1927 0.053245 18.781162 0.0000%
1926 0.053245 18.781162 -2.0001%
1925 0.054332 18.405529 0.6731%
1924 0.053968 18.529425 2.0549%
1923 0.052882 18.910184 0.0000%
1922 0.052882 18.910184 2.8137%
1921 0.051434 19.442258 -7.1894%
1920 0.055419 18.044479 -13.0688%
1919 0.063750 15.686285 15.7925%
1918 0.055055 18.163546 14.2845%
1917 0.048174 20.758117 16.6637%
1916 0.041293 24.217191 20.0069%
1915 0.034409 29.062299 9.1939%
1914 0.031512 31.734250 2.3510%
1913 0.030788 32.480329 1.1940%
1912 0.030425 32.868160 1.1977%
1911 0.030064 33.261829 2.4765%
1910 0.029338 34.085575 0.0000%
1909 0.029338 34.085575 3.8464%
1908 0.028251 35.396643 0.0000%
1907 0.028251 35.396643 -2.5073%
1906 0.028978 34.509135 5.2689%
1905 0.027527 36.327392 2.6987%
1904 0.026804 37.307776 0.0000%
1903 0.026804 37.307776 1.3740%
1902 0.026441 37.820368 2.8128%
1901 0.025717 38.884170 1.4328%
1900 0.025354 39.441318 0.0000%
1899 0.025354 39.441318 16.6611%
1898 0.021733 46.012663 -10.4416%
1897 0.024267 41.208211 0.0000%
1896 0.024267 41.208211 -1.4749%
1895 0.024630 40.600411 1.4970%
1894 0.024267 41.208211 -1.4749%
1893 0.024630 40.600411 -5.5612%
1892 0.026081 38.342544 0.0000%
1891 0.026081 38.342544 -1.3619%
1890 0.026441 37.820368 0.0000%
1889 0.026441 37.820368 -2.6744%
1888 0.027167 36.808893 0.0000%
1887 0.027167 36.808893 1.3553%
1886 0.026804 37.307776 1.3740%
1885 0.026441 37.820368 -1.3553%
1884 0.026804 37.307776 -1.3372%
1883 0.027167 36.808893 -5.0576%
1882 0.028615 34.947255 -3.6586%
1881 0.029701 33.668664 2.4963%
1880 0.028978 34.509135 0.0000%