United States. Congress. House. Committee on Scien.

Road from Kyoto : hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifth Congress, second session (Volume pt. 2) online

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result in almost 20 percent fewer people at risk of hunger.
Global cereal production would increase by 70 mmt, with
most of the production increases occurring in developing
countries (Table 15).

Climate change impacts were then simulated under these
new reference conditions. Under the same trade liherali/.i-
tion policies, global impacts due to climate change would be
slightly reduced, with enhanced gains in production accruing
to developed countries. Losses in production would be
greater in developing countries. Price increases were reduced
slightly from what would occur without full trade liberaliza-
tion, and the number of people at risk of hunger was also
reduced.

Rctluccil rate oj ecohomic gnwih

Estimates were also made of impacts under a lower economic
growth scenario (10 percent lower than reference). These are
indicated in Table 16. Lower economic growth results in a
tighter supply situation, higher prices, and more people
below the hunger threshold.

The effect ofclimale change on these trends is generally to
reduce production, increase prices, and increase the number
of people at risk from hunger. Developed countries increase
cereal production in the GISS and GFDL scenarios even
with the projected lower economic growth rates, but develop-
ing countries decrease production under all climate change
scenarios



240



50



C. ROSENZWEIG. M L PARRY AND G FISCHER



% CHANQC



WITH C02 DIRECT EFFECTS




CC*AD1



CC*AD2



QISS



GFDL CHUKMO



Figure 10 Change in cereal price index in 2060 calculated by the Basic Linked System under climate change scenarios for no adaptation
and Adaptation Levels I and 2 (ADI and AD2). Reference scenario for 2060 assumed no climate change (price index is 18 percent
above 1980 levels).



400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50

-50



MILLIONS



WITH C02 DIRECT EFFECTS



BASE 1990 - 529; 2060 - 641




p]



cc



IGISS



CC*AD1 CC*AD2



GFDL (ZHuKMO



Fipuic II Change in number of people ;i I risk of hunger m 2060 calculated by the Basic Linked System under clmiale change sccnari.
for no adaptation and Adaptation Levels I and 2 (ADI and AD2) Reference scenario foi 2060 assumes no climate change (529 milli
people are at risk of hunger in 1990; 641 million people are at risk uf hunger in 2060)



241



2 WORLD FOOD SUPPLY



51



Tabic 1 5. Change in icrcul procliiclion. price index, and the
numher ol people al risk of lumi^er in 2060 assuminii full
trade liheralizaiion and GCM elimale clianf;e scenarios

A. Cereal prodiiclion (relative li> Ref-FTU)



Table 16. Change in cereal production, price index, and the
numher oj people al risk of hunger in 2060 assuming a low
rate of economic growth and GCM climate change scenarios

A. Cereal production (relative to Rcf-E' )





Referenec












Reference












scenario-


Ref-FTl.


GISS


GFDL


UKMO




scenario-


Rcf-E


GISS


GFDL


UKMO




(niml)


(mnil)


(mml)


(mnit)


(mml)




(mmt)


(mmt)


(mml)


(mml)


(mmt)


Global


3286


3356


-29


-87


-274


Global


328ft


3212


-31


-87


-253


Developed


1449


1472


184


96


-55


Devcloned


1449


1428


177


86


-51


Developing


1836


1X84


-213


- 1;;3


-219


Developing


1836


1786


-208


-173


-202



B. Change in cereal price indc\ ( % of Ref-h'TI
1970= 100)



Relerence

scenario Rcl-ITL GISS GI'DL UKMO



Cereal prices 121



153



19



30



135



C. Change in numher oj people at risk of hunger in 2(160
(relative to Ref-FTL)

Reference " "

scenario Ref-ITL GISS GKDL UKMO

(m) (m) (m) (m) (m)



Global'



641



532



53



98



378



Notes:

' Relative to Ref-FTL. reference scenario with full trade

liberalization and no climate ch'ange.

- Reference scenario assumes no climate change.

" Entire increase in number of people al risk of hunger is in

developing countries (excluding China).



B Change in cereal price index (% of Ref-i;. I<J70= 100)

Reference

scenario Rcf-E GISS GFDL UKMO



Cereal prices 121



137



21



30



139



C. Change in numher of people al ri.\k of hunger in 2060
(relative to Ref-L)

Reference

.scenario Ref-E GISS GFDL UKMO

(m) (m) (m) (m) (ni)



Global'



641



757



63



119



412



Notes:

' Relative to Rcf-E, reference scenario with a low rate of

economic growth and no climate change.

- Reference scenario assumes no climate change.

' Entire increase in number of people at risk of hunger is in

developing countries.



Altered rates of population growth

Lower population growth was shown to have a significant
effect on cereal production, food prices, and number of
hungry people (Table 17). Simulations based on rates ol
population growth according to UN low estimates resulted
in a world population about 17 percent lower in year 2060
when compared to UN mid-estimates used in the reference
run. The corresponding reduction in the developing coun-
tries (excluding China) would be about 19.5 percent, from 1 .^
billion to 5.9 billion. The combination of higher GDP/capita
(about 10 percent) and lower world population produced an
estimated 40 percent fewer hungry people in the year 2060
compared to the reference scenario.

Even under the most adverse of the three climate scenarios
(UKMO) the estimated number of hungry people was some
10 percent lower than the number estimated under the
reference scenario without any climate change. Increases in
world prices for agricultural products in particular, cereab



- under the climate change scenarios employing the low
population projection were around 75 percent of those
projected using the UN mid-estimate.

Figure 12 summarizes the generalized relative effects of
different policies of trade liberalization, economic growth,
and population growth on the production of cereals and
people at risk of hunger. Alternative development assump-
tions made little difference with respect to the geopolitical
patterns of the relative effects of climate change. In all cases,
cereal production decreased, particularly in the developing
world, while prices and population at risk from hunger
increased due to climate change. The beneficial effects of
trade liberalization and low population growth were of the
same or an even greater (in the case of population) order of
magnitude as the adverse effects of climate change This
suggests that there may be much to be gained from altering
the conditions of trade and development as a strategy for
addressing the clii.iate change issue. The macnilude of



242



52



C. ROSENZWEIG. M L PARRY ANDG. FISCHER



Table 17. Chunges in leieul pioJuclion. price nid^'x. arid (lit
number nf people cl risk of hunger in 2060 assuming UN
Low Estimate of Population growth anclGCM climate
change scenarios

A. Cereal production {relative to Ref-P')



Reference

scenario- Ref-P GISS GFDL UKMO

(mmt) (mmt) (mml) (mmt) (mml)



Global 3286
Developed 1449
Developing 1836


2929
1349
1582


- 20 - 76

139 65

-159 -141


-208
-52

-157


B. Change in cereal price


index (%


of Ref-P: 1970-


= 100)


Reference
scenario


Ref-P


GISS GFDL


UKMO


Cereal prices 121


92


19 28


116



C. Change in number of people at risk of hunger in 2060
(relative to Ref-P)



Reference

scenario

(m)



Ref-P GISS GFDL UKMO
(m) (m) (m) (m)



Global'



641



395



18



50



183



Ndlcn:

' Relative to Rct-P. reference scenario with UN Lov. Estimate

of Population growth and no climate change

Reference scenario assumes no climate change
' Entire increase in number of people at risk of hunger is in
developing countries.

adverse climate impacts was lowest, however, under the
conditions of low population growth. An assumption of low
population growth rate minimized the population at risk of
hunger in both the pre.si-nceand absence of climate change in
the BLS simulations.



rONCI,US!ONS

Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is
likely to affect crop yields differently from region to region
across the globe. Under the climate change scenarios
ai'opled in this study, the effects on crop yields in mid- and
high-latilude regions appeared to be less adverse than those
in low-latitude regions. However, the more favorable effects
on yield in temperate regions defended to a large extent on
full realization of the potentially beneficial direct effects of
CO. on crop growth. Decreases in potential crop yields are



likelv to be caused by shortening ofthe crop growing period,
decrease in water availability due to higher rates of evapo-
traiispiiaticn, aiid poo. ver.ializatioii of temperate cereal
crops. When adaptations at the farm level were tested (e.g.,
change in planting date, switch of crop variety, changes in
fertilizer application and irrigation), compensation for the
detrimental effects of climate change was found to be more
successful in developed countries.

When the economic implications of these changes in crop
yields were explored in a world food trade model, the relative
ability ofthe world food system to absorb impacts decreased
with the magnitude of the impact. Regional differences in
effects remained noticeable, and developed countries are
expected to be less affected by climate change than develop-
ing economies. Dynamic economic adjustments can compen-
sate for lower impact scenarios, such as the GISS and GFDL
climate scenarios, but not higher impact ones, such as the
UKMO scenario. Prices of agricultural products were found
to be related to the magnitude of the climate change impact,
and incidence of food poverty increased in all but one of the
climate change scenarios tested.

When the effects of lower future population, lower econ-
omic growth rales, and partial trade liberalization were
tested in the food trade model, reduced population growth
rates were projected to have the largest effect on minimizing
the impact of climate change Lower economic growth
resulted in tighter food supplies, and consequently resulted in
higher rates of food poverty. Full trade liberalization in
agriculture provided lor more ellicicnt resource use and
reduced the number of people at risk of hunger by about 100
million (from the reference case of about 640 million in 2060).
However.allof the scenarios of future climate adopted in this
part of the study exacerbated estimates of the number of
people at risk of hunger.

It should be emphasized that the results reported here are
not a forecast ofthe future. There arc very large uncertainties
that preclude making forecasts, particularly the lack of
information on possible climate change at the regional level,
on the effects of technological change on agricultural pro-
ductivity, on trends in demand (including population
growth), and on the wide array of possible adaptations. The
adoption of ellicienl adaptation techniques is far from
certain. In developing countries, there may be social or
technical constraints, and adaptive measures may not neces-
sarily result in sustainable production over long time-frames.
The availability of water supplies for irrigation and the costs
of adaptation are both critical needs for further research.

Future trace gas emission rates, as well as when the full
magnitude of their effects will be realized, are not certain, and
only a limited range of GCM climate change scenarios,
representing the upper end of the projected warming, was
tested. However, it can be argued that the use of scenarios
from the higher GCM projections provides perspective on



243



2 WORLD FOOD SUPPLY



53



MILLION PEOPLE



WITH DIRECT C02 EFFECTS



1200



1000



800



600



400.



200



UKMO



QISS



QFOL




-8



-2 -4 -6

PERCENT CHANGE IN CEREAL PRODUCTION

STANDARD -O- LOW ECON OR □ TRADE LIB - ^ LOW POP

Figure 12 EfTccIs ordlfVercm assumpuons and policies on number ol people al risk Irom hunger calculated by llie Uasic Linked Syslein
under the climate change scenarios.



the downside risk ol'global warming projections. Because ol
these uncertainties, the study should be considered as an
exploratory i'ssessment of Ihe sensitivity ol' (he world food
system :o a limited number of what is. inelTccl.a much wider
array of possible futures

Determining how countries, particularly developing coun-
tries, can and will respond to reduced yields and increased
costs of food is a critical research need arising from this
study. Will such countries be able to import large amounts of
food? From a political and social standpoint, these results
show a decrease in food security in developing countries. The
study suggests that the worst situation arises from a scenario
of severe climate change, low economic growth, and little
farm-level adaptation. In order to minimize possible adverse
consequences - production losses, food price increases, and
more people at risk of hunger - the way forward is to
encourage the agricultural sector to continue to develop crop
breeding and management programs for heat and drought
conditions (measures that will be useful even today in
impro\ing productivity in marginal environments) and to
encourage the nations of the world tu take measures to slow
population growth. The latter step would also be consistent
with efforts to slow emissions of greenhouse gases, the source"
of the problem, and thus the rate and eventual magnitude of
global climate change.



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS



support from the U.S. Agency for International Develop-
ment. Dr. Roy Jcnne provided the GCM climate change
scenarios. Ana Iglesias developed crop model aggregation
techniques. Richard Goldberg provided technical assistance,
and Christopher Shashkin provided project support We are
grateful to Drs. Richard Adams. Timothy Carter. William
Cline, John Hayes, John Reilly. and Richard Warrick for
their constructive reviews.



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IVMI IVX7. Ames: Iowa Slate University



APPKM>IX 1. PROJECT PARTICIPANTS —

The study involved a largo number of scientists in a broad ranyc
orcoiMitrics Key participants arc listed below.

.Argentina

Dr. Osviildo Saia

University of Buenos Aires

Aiistruliii

Dr. Wayne S. Meyer

CSIRO

Dr Doug Godwin

Alton Park'

.■\ustriit

Dr Gijnthcr Fischer

IIASA



245



2 WORLD FOOD SUPPLY



55



Bangladesh

Dr. Z. Karim

Mr. M. Ahmed

Bangladesh Agricuhural Research Council

Hrazil

Dr. O. J K de Siqueira

CNPT/EMBRAPA

Caiiadd

Dr. Michael Brklacich

Agriculture Canada

China

Dr. Zhiqing Jin

Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Dr H M. F.id
Ministry of Agriculture

France

Dr. Richard Delccolle

INRA

Gennanv

Dr. Klaus Frohberg

University of Bonn

India

Dr D Gangadhar Rao

Central Research Inst lor Dryland Agriculture

Japcin

Dr. Hiroshi Seino

National Inst, of Agro-Environmental Sciences

Mc.xiid

Dr. Diana Liverman
Pennsylvania Stale University
Dr. Lelicia Mcnchaca
National University of Mexico

Pakistan

Dr Ata Qurcshi

Climate inslilutc, Washington, DC

Philippines

Dr. Crisanto R. Escano

Mr Leandro Bucndia

Council for Agr., For. and Natural Resources

Russia

Dr. Gcnrady V. Mcnzhulin

Dr Larisa A Koval

Stale Hydrological Institute

Spain

Dr. Ana Iglcsias

CIT-INIA

Taiwan

Dr. Tien-Yin Chou

Feng Chai University



Thailand

Dr. M. L. C Tongyai

Ministry of Agriculture & Co-operalives

UK

Dr. Martin L. Parry

University of Oxford

Uruguay

Dr. Waller E. Baclhgen

International Fertilizer Development Center

USA

Dr. Cynlhi.i Roscnzwcig

Columbia Univcrsily/GISS

Mr. Brian Bacr

Michigan Stale University

Dr. Bruce Curry

University of Florida

Dr. Gerril Hoogcnboom

University of Georgia

Dr Roy Jennc

National Center for Atmospheric Research



Online LibraryUnited States. Congress. House. Committee on ScienRoad from Kyoto : hearing before the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifth Congress, second session (Volume pt. 2) → online text (page 29 of 137)