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arrival of George, on September the i8th, deci(^ed the fate
of the Tories. The new King treated the late Ministers
with studied insult. He attached himself unreservedly to
the Whig party. And that party was determined to use
the cry of '* Danger to the Succession," in order to justify
their vengeance on the Tories.

" The art of the Whigs," wrote Bolingbroke afterwards, " was to blend,
as undistinguishably as they could, all their party interests with those of
the Succession ; and they made the same factious use of the supposed
danger of it, as the Tories had endeavoured to make, some time before, of
the supposed danger of the Church."

Instead of holding a neutral position above all parties,
George allowed the Whigs to make him a party King, the
leader of a small, well-organized, and vindictive fact on.
The immediate result of the conduct of the Whigs was that
the general disposition to Jacobitism increased daily among
all ranks ; the ultimate result was that the great Tory party
became by the arts of their opponents associated with
Jacobitism, and remained powerless in Parliament till the
accession of George HI. At the new elections a large
Whig majority was returned. Parliament met on March
the 17th, 1 7 15, and Bolingbroke, who had lived at Bucklers-
bury since his dismissal, led the Opposition in the House of
Lords. There, in the debate on the address, Bolmgbroke
made his last speech in Parliament, in opposition to the
insertion of a clause which implied that he and Oxford were


traitors to the Protestant cause, and had injured England's
welfare by the Peace of Utrecht. In the House of Commons
Walpole openly declared that the Whig Ministers intended
to punish the members of the late Government. The arrival
of Prior in London on March the 25th, his friendly reception
by Townshend, followed by his examination by a Committee
of the Privy Council, decided Bolingbroke to fly. On the
evening of March the 25th Bolingbroke was at Drury Lane,
where he bespoke a play for the next night. The same
evening he left London in disguise, travelled to Dover,
where he wrote the letter to Lord Lansdowne, and on
March the 28th crossed over to Calais. It is said that, on his
way to Paris, he met Peterborough, who, still furious with
him for concluding the Peace of Utrecht, passed him with-
out a word.

Historians will always be divided on the subject of
Bolingbroke's intentions at the time of Anne's death. Some
writers do not hesitate to declare that, his Jacobitism was
undoubted, that he was intriguing for a Stuart restoration,
and that it was only the want of sufficient time to enable
him to perfect his preparations that prevented a declaration
on behalf of James Edward on the day of Anne's death.

On July the 27th Anne had taken away the white staff of
the Treasurer from Oxford, but though the Treasury was
placed in commission, Bolingbroke, it is said, by putting
suspected Jacobites into the vacant offices, was evincing a
determination to place the Pretender on the English throne.
Ormonde, of undoubted Jacobite tendencies, was certainly
Warden of the Cinque Ports, but Bromley, Secretary of
State in 1713, though a High Churchman, owed his position
to Oxford ; and Wyndham, the Chancellor of the Exchequer,
and a close friend of Bolingbroke, was by no means an
avowed Jacobite. It must be remembered, too, that Boling-
broke was far from being a persona grata with the Tory party,
for the m.embers of that party, a§ in 1688, were Chi^rchmer;


before everything, and were not prepared to take action on
behalf of the Pretender until he had definitely abjured his
Roman Catholicism. D' Iberville had written to Torcy as
late as May the 19th, 17 14, that unless James Edward abjured
his faith he would not receive the support of BoHngbroke.

After the accession of George I. the Jacobites in France
undoubtedly expected to gain over Bolingbroke to their
cause. On January the 6th, 1715, the Duke of Berwick stated
in a letter to the Pretender that it was hoped that Bolingbroke
would work for the cause of James III. by securing the
support of several of the leading Tories. In a subsequent
letter Berwick declares that Hanmer is too self-seeking to
be of much use to the Jacobite cause, but that Bolingbroke
" is the man I wish would work heartily." It is evident
from these two letters, written in January, 1715, that
Bolingbroke was not yet regarded as an avowed Jacobite. In fact,
till the beginning of 171 5 Bolingbroke appears to have
hoped that George I. might employ him, and he seems to
have satisfied himself that at any rate he was in no danger
of any attack. But the Government of the " Venetian
oligarchs " was determined to unravel all the negotiations
preceding the Peace of Utrecht. Lord Strafford, who had
been at Utrecht, was forced to surrender all his papers
early in January, 1715, while at the same time the Earl of
Stair, the English envoy in Paris, took possession of Prior's
correspondence, which included Bolingbroke's private dis-
patches. It was quite evident that Bolingbroke's enemies
intended to leave no stone unturned in order to secure his
impeachment. " Plad there been the least reason to hope
for a fair and open trial," he wrote from Dover, when on
his way to France, to Lord Lansdowne, " after having been
already prejudiced unheard by two Houses of Parliament,
I should not have declined the strict examination. I chal-
lenge the most inveterate of my enemies to produce any
in jtance of criminal correspondence or the least corruptioi?


on any part of the Administration in which I was con-

BoHngbroke seems to have decided on flight in a moment
of panic. He had just heard that Prior, then in the custody
of a messenger, had been invited by Townshend to dinner.
But there was nothing treasonable in Prior's correspondence.
In his letter to Lansdowne, which was published, BoHng-
broke says :

" I had certain and repeated information from some who are in the secret
of affairs, that a resolution was taken by those who have the power to
execute it to pursue me to the scaffold. My blood was to be the cement
of a new alliance."

Marlborough had supplied him with the information ; but
in his Letter to Sir William Wyndhani, Bolingbroke denies
that he was moved by Marlborough's artifices. He after-
wards declared that he left England upon mature reflection,
not wishing to owe his security to the Whimsical Tories,
and resolved not to consult with Oxford — whom he abhorred
— about their mutual defence, or to suffer with him. He
could not have made a worse blunder. Oxford stood his
ground, was impeached, remained without trial in the
Tower for two years, and then was publicly acquitted.
Bolingbroke's flight was naturally construed to imply guilt.
All it really implied was a want of moral fortitude, often the
characteristic of impatient, mercurial natures like his, and
quite compatible with the possession of a considerable
amount of political courage. The report of Walpole's
Committee of Secrecy, which was appointed, on Boling-
broke's flight, to examine all documents relating to the
negotiations about the Peace, conclusively provej that, had
Bolingbroke remained in England, his enemies could not
have charged him successfully with high treason. But his
flight had ruined his career, and left him at the mercy of his
enemies. In September he was attainted of high treason,
his property was ppnfisca'.ed, and he was condemned to


death. His name was about the same time ordered to be
struck from the roll of Peers.

Henceforward Bolingbroke was unable to re-enter Parlia-
mentary life. He was later, it is true, permitted to return
to England, where he became the organizer of a powerful
opposition to Walpole. Like Pulteney, Shelburne, and
Charles James Fox, the greater part of his life was spent
in opposition. Politics, however, were far from being his
only resource. His exile marks the beginning of a new
period in his career, in which he combined a profound
interest in politics with a devotion to Hterature and to
philosophical and religious inquiry.

Till early in May he remained in Paris, where he was
well known, and treated as a distinguished guest. He
assured Stair, with whom he had a friendly interview, that
while he remained in Paris he would have no dealings
with the Pretender. In fact, he was very careful to avoid
all entanglements with the Jacobites, who were in con-
siderable numbers in the French capital. Caution, in fact,
regulated all his actions while in Paris, for it was for some
little time uncertain whether the Whig Government would
push matters a Voiitrance. On May the loth he left Paris and
proceeded to St. Clair, near Vienne, and towards the end
of June he settled at Bellevue, near Lyons. Meanwhile
his enemies in England had not been idle. Early in
April a Committee of Secrecy had been formed to inquire
into all the circumstances connected with the Treaty of
Utrecht, and its report was presented to the House of Com-
mons by Walpole on June the 9th. No delay took place
in prosecuting the absent statesman, for the following day
Walpole "formally impeached Bolingbroke of high treason."
The charges against him were partly definite, partly in-
definite. It was stated that he had betrayed England's
allies, that he had sacrificed to France "the interests and
honour " of the country, and that he had corresponded with


the Pretender. In the middle of August a Bill of Attainder
against Bolingbroke was brought in and carried in Parlia-
ment. Oxford;, Ormonde, and Strafford were also at the
same time impeached with Bolingbroke. The impeach-
ment of Strafford for high treason was not proceeded with,
and in July, 171 7, Oxford, after two years' confinement in
the Tower, was acquitted of all charges by the House of
Lords. Ormonde, whose impeachment was voted on June
the 17th, was very popular in London and in the country.
Though no active steps were at once taken against him,
he realized a few weeks later that his arrest was imminent,
and on the night of July the 20th he fled to France, his
flight implying that all rumours of a popular insurrection
in England on behalf of the Pretender were unreliable.

Meanwhile Bolingbroke, before the Act of Attainder had
been passed, had thrown in his lot with the Pretender.
At the beginning of July, he received letters from Wynd-
ham and from the Pretender himself. The former de-
scribed the situation in England, where the clergy and
populace were united in opposition to the Government.
Riots were taking place not only in London, but also all
over the Midlands ; the popularity of Ormonde and Oxford
was undoubted, Jacobite mobs had destroyed Dissenting
meeting-houses, in Edinburgh the Pretender's health was
openly drunk, the new King was unable to ingratiate him-
self with the mass of his new subjects. Wyndham ap-
parently hoped for a revolution to take place shortly, for
he urged Bolingbroke not to remain neuter when affairs
were in *' so critical, so unexpected, and so promising a
situation." The letter from the Pretender invited Boling-
broke to hasten to confer with him at Commercy in Lor-
raine, and there, early in July, the interview, a momentous
fact in the statesman's life, took place.

At Commercy he decided to join the Pretender, and this
step, which has been styled " the rashest and the most


regrettable " that he ever took, was no doubt the result
of the reports which he had received of the unrest in
England and Scotland.

But James Edward Stuart was a very different man
from his predecessors. He was superstitious, timid, vacil-
lating, and irresolute. He surrounded himself with Jesuit
intriguers and numerous English, Scottish, and Irish ad-
venturers. That he had any party ready to act was due,
according to Bolingbroke, to the measures of the Whigs.
^^ Those measures,'" he wrote, ^^ alone produced the troubles that
foUowed, and dyed the royal ermines of a prince, no way sanguinary,
in blood. I am far from excusing one party, for suffering another
to drive them into rebellion ; I wish I could forget it myself/' He
then points out " that the very manner in n'hich the rebellion
was begun, shews abundantly that it was a start of passion, a
sudden phrenzy of men transported by their resentment,''

The history of the previous relations of the Tory
Ministers with James might have led him to know what
to expect. In 1714 Bolingbroke had complained to D'lber-
ville that James was surrounded by untrustworthy persons ;
that everything he says or does was known ; that the name
of every one he sees or corresponds with was instantly
communicated to the Whigs. James had never taken any
good advice. He had been strongly urged to communicate
with England by means of Torcy alone, to leave Lorraine
before the meeting of Parliament in 17 14, to go perhaps to
Venice where he could see his English partisans without
suspicion, to give up his religion, or at least to simulate
conversion. To his infinite credit, he declared in March,
1714, in very explicit and straightforward language, that
under no circumstances would he surrender his religious
beliefs, or pretend to change his religion for the sake of a
crown. In other respects his actions were not so praise-
worthy. He refused to leave Lorraine, and persisted in
corresponding with his Scotch, and, what was worse, with
his Irish partisans, men who, no matter how zealous in his


cause, had no idea of the meaning of the words judgment
and discretion. Bolingbroke's new relations with the
Jacobites served only to bring out in stronger relief the
flaws in James' own character, and the weak points in the
Jacobite organization. The faithful Middleton, who had
gone into exile with James II., and whose talents were
considerable, had been practically driven from the Che-
valier's service in December, 171 3.

Bolingbroke was to find that the same influences which
had proved too powerful for Middleton would bring about
his own dismissal. In his Letter to Sir William Wyndham
he gives a full account of his motives in joining James, and
a most amusing description of James' frame of mind, and
of the condition of the Jacobite party in Paris. It is
impossible to accept the reason he gives in that letter for
joining James. Resentment at the Bill of Attainder drove
him, he declares, into the Jacobite ranks. The Bill of
Attainder was not passed till September. He had adopted
the Jacobite cause in July. In his first interview, the
Chevalier talked to Bolingbroke "like a man who ex-
pected every moment to set out for England or Scotland,
but who did not very well know for which." The truth
was, his Scottish partisans were urging James to hasten
his departure, without considering the advisability of wait-
ing till the English Jacobites were prepared to rise.
Berwick, an able soldier, had nominally the principal direc-
tion of James' affairs in France, but he had little power
to influence James' decisions.

In his first interview with Bolingbroke at Commercy,
the Pretender was probably justified from the accounts
which had reached him in expecting " every moment to set
out for England or Scotland." The rising of 1715 shows
that both men had not underestimated the repugnance to
the accession of George I. felt in the latter country. But
while James urged an immediate Scottish expedition,
Bolingbroke opposed any such precipitate action until


simultaneous risings in England and Scotland, supported
by French troops, arms, and money, could be organized.
The presence of the Chevalier in Scotland when his flag
was unfurled was also insisted upon. Having convinced
James of the necessity of taking no precipitate action and
of watching events in England, Bolingbroke departed for
Paris on July the 23rd. There he was introduced to his
Jacobite coadjutors.

"I found a multitude of people at work, and every one doing what
seemed good in his own eyes ; no subordination, no order, no concert. . . .
The Jacobites had wrought one another up to look on the success of the
present designs as infallible. Care and hope sat on every busy Irish face.
Those who could write and read had letters to show, and those who had
not arrived at this pitch of erudition had their secrets to whisper. . . .
Into such company was I fallen, for my sins."

There Bolingbroke continued to insist that all action
should be postponed till a " formed plan" had been con-
certed and an organized scheme prepared. Had James
given Bolingbroke full power, had he trusted him implicitly,
had he followed his and Berwick's advice, the Jacobite
movement in Scotland might have had results very serious
to the stability of George's throne. But unfortunately
James did not place full confidence in either Bolingbroke
or Berwick, his two ablest advisers.

Bolingbroke's delineation of the character of James gives
one a very clear explanation of the reasons of the failure of
the rising of 1715 : —

" His religion is not founded on the love of virtue and the detestation ot
vice. . . . The spring of his whole conduct is fear — fear of the horns of
the devil and of the flames of hell. . . . He has all the superstition of a
Capuchin ; but I found in him no tincture of the religion of a prince. . . .
I have heard the same description of his character made by those who knew
him best ; and I conversed with very few among the Roman Catholics
themselves who did not think him too much a Papist." Then he was far
too sanguine. " He had been suffered to think that the party in England
wanted him as much as he wanted them. There was no room to hope for


much compliance on the head of religion when he was in these sentiments,
and when he thought the Tories too much advanced to have it in their
power to retreat ; and little dependence was at any time to be placed on the
promises of a man capable of thinking his damnation attached to the
observance, and his salvation to the breach, of these very promises."

It would hardly be expected that so sanguine a Prince
would be willing to listen to the calm counsels of ex-
perienced men. Berwick had been in Spain during those
important first seven months of 1714. He was strongly
opposed to the expedition of 1715, unless careful arrange-
ments were made for a rising in England. Actuated by a
mean jealousy of the great French marshal, James deliber-
ately chose the vain Ormonde as his adviser : a most fatal
mistake, for he thus deprived himself of the help of the two
men who alone could have assured him any reasonable
chance of success. Ormonde's rlight from England had
ruined all chance of organizing a rising in England. He
was a man of very different calibre to his grandfather, the
staunch cavalier of the reigns of Charles I. and H. His
flight and the death of Louis XIV. rendered, in Boling-
broke's opinion, the Pretender's expedition hopeless before
it started.

" Two events," wrote Bolingbroke later to Wyndham, "soon happened,
one of which cast a damp on all we iwere doing, and the other rendered
vain and fruitless all we had done. The first was the arrival of the Duke
of Ormonde in France, the other was the death of the King."

Ormonde had up to this time (August) been living in
great style at Richmond, assuring the Jacobites abroad that
he would remain in England ready to act. In order to get
French aid, Bolingbroke had declared to the French
Ministers that Ormonde's appearance in the West of Eng-
land would be the signal for 20,000 men to rise.

"We had sounded the Duke's name high. His reputation and the
opinion of his power were great. The French began to believe that he
was able to form and lead a party, that the troops would join him, that the
nation would follow the signal whenever he drew the sword. . . . But


when in the midst of all these bright ideas they saw him arrive almost
literally alone, when to excuse his coming I was obliged to tell them that
he could not stay, they sunk at once from their hopes ; and that which
generally happens happened in this case, because they had had too good
an opinion of the cause, they began to form too bad a one. Before this
time, if they had no friendship for the Tories, they had at least some con-
sideration and esteem. After this I saw nothing but compassion in the
best of them, and contempt in the others."

The flight of Ormonde was followed shortly afterwards
by the death of Louis XIV. As long as Louis lived, Boling-
broke had some hope of drawing France into open hostility
to England. " My hopes sunk as he declined, and died when
he expired. He was the best friend the Chevalier had."

All chance of a Jacobite success even in Scotland depended
on the Pretender's ability to secure an adequate supply of
money and on French aid. The Duke of Berwick agreed
fully with the views held by Bolingbroke and by Ormonde,
who insisted that for success a large sum of money, artillery,
and over 4,000 troops were required. Berwick, indeed,
early in August conveyed to James Edward the unwelcome
fact that matters could not be hurried on, though he had
hopes that money and ships might soon be procured. The
arrival of Ormonde in Paris on August the 6th was, however,
a serious reminder that affairs in England were not progres-
sing very favourably for the Jacobite cause. The death of
Louis XIV. on September the ist was a still more serious
blow to the hopes of James Edward's supporter. Till that
event took place there was always the possibility that
French aid in men and money would be forthcoming, even
though a rupture between England and France should be
the consequence. No one could foretell what would happen
in France when once the old King had passed away. The
success of a Jacobite expedition depended, as Boling-
broke frequently asserted, on simultaneous risings in
England and Scotland, on the presence of the Pretender
in Scotland when his flag was unfurled, but chiefly on


French aid in troops, arms, and money. All hope of
French assistance disappeared with the death of Louis XIV.
His death, like that of Queen Anne, had come at a time
most inopportune for the realization of Bolingbroke's plans,
and from this time he lost the chief control of affairs.
James Erskine, Earl of Mar, obeying orders transmitted to
him, without Bolingbroke's knowledge, from James, raised
the Pretender's standard at Braemar on September the 6th
before all the Jacobite forces could be brought into the field.
This rash act proved fatal to the cause of the Jacobites, for
Orleans refused to give any aid, while the English Jacobites
had already declared for a waiting policy. Any hope of a
rising in England, however, was at an end before the begin-
ning of November owing to the energetic measures of the
English Government, while Admiral Byng at the head of
an English squadron prevented any munitions of war from
leaving Havre for Scotland. A rebel force did, indeed,
march from Scotland to Preston, in Lancashire, only to suffer
an overwhelming defeat at the hands of an English army.
Early in November, at Sheriff Muir, a fiercely contested
but undecisive battle was fought between Mar and Argyll,
but the highland advance was checked, and from that time
there was no unity of action by the supporters of the Pre-
tender. In spite of the absence of any encouraging news,
and undeterred by Ormonde's failure to effect a landing in
Cornwall, James sailed from France, and landed at Peterhead
on January the 2nd, 1716. His proclamation was not calcu-
lated to rouse enthusiasm, and the actual number of his
troops did not exceed 5,000. Nevertheless, for a few weeks
his cause was not thought to be desperate. Lord Mar
persisted in his expectation of a rupture between France and
England. On January the 31st Bolingbroke wrote a letter
to Mar alluding to the early despatch of a ship with arms
and ammunition to the west coast of Scotland, and lament-
ing that the Jacobite nobility and gentry in England have



no Duke of Mar to lead them.i But the Pretender's cause
was already lost, and he was in some danger of capture by
the English and Dutch troops. On February the 3rd, 1716,
he wrote a somewhat despairing letter to the Regent Orleans,
admitting that French help in men and money could alone
save the situation. On February the 4th, having appointed

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