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Northern States for the same decade, and shows what has become of
a part of the freedmen :



STATES.


1860.


1870.


Gain
percent.


STATES.


I860.


18?0.


Gain
per cent.


Kansas

Iowa


627
1,069
7,628

11,428
6,799

36,673


17,103
5,762
28,762
24,560
11,849
63,213


2,628-5'

4390

277-0

114-9

74-3

72-4


Massachusetts. .
Rhode Island . .

New Jersey

rcnnsylvania . .

Connecticut

New York . .


9,602

3,952

25,336

66,949

8,627

49,005


18,947
4,980

30,658

65,294.
9,668

52,081


45-3
260


Illinois

Indiana

Michigan

Ohio


21-0
14-7
12-0
6-3











The aggregate increase in these twelve States was from 217,092 to
327,882, or 51-0 per cent., being 41 per cent, more than the average
increase of all the colored in the United States for the same period.
Only one State (New York) fell below this average.

The following table shows the increase of the colored population in
the former slave States for the last decade, 1870 to 1880 :



STATES.


1870.


1880.


Gain
per cent.


STATES. 18T0.


1880.


Gain
per cent.


Arkansas

Te-\as


122,169
253,475


210,622
394,001
650,337
604,275

25,806
125,464

69,378
531,351
724,685


72-4
55-4
46-4
45-3
43.5
36-8
86-8
36-7
32-9


Loui.oiana 364,210

Alabama 475.510


483,794
600,249
402,991
631,764
145,046
271,461
209,897
26,450


32-8
26-2


Mississippi

South Carolina..
West Virginia . .

Florida

Dist. of Columb.
North Carolina. .
Georgia


444,201

415,814

17,980

91,689

43,404

391,650

545,142


Tennessee

Virginia

' Missouri

Kentucky

Maryland

Delaware

!


322,331
512,841
118,071
222,210
176,891
22,794


25-0
23-2
22-8
22-2
19-7
160



VOL. XIX. — 50



786



THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.



Usually, as population becomes more dense, its percentage of gain
becomes less ; but in the two Southern States, Mississippi and South
Caroling, in which the colored population is densest and most largely-
outnumbering the white, the ratio of increase is among the greatest.
Not even the principle of density, nor the terrors of the " Mississippi
plan," appear to have exerted the least check upon the multiplication
of the colored people in those States. They probably received some
accessions from immigration, especially Mississippi, as Texas and Ar-
kansas certainly did. The table indicates readily what States probably
lost by emigration. The showing for South Carolina has been anoma-
lous for the last three censuses, it having, like the border States, gained
little during the seventh and eighth decades, but having gained enor-
mously during the ninth, as shown by the last census, and yet in no State
is the correctness of this census better assured than in South Carolina,
If there be error it is in the previous census. The ratio of increase in
seven of these States rises above the average for the colored popula-
tion of the United States ; North Carolina has the same ratio, while
the others fall below it.

The following table gives the colored increase in twelve Northern
States for the last decade :



STATES.


18?0.


*•*»•• 'percent.


1 STATES.

!


18?0.


1880.


Gain
per cent.


Kansas


17,108
5,762
28,762
24,560
13,947
65,294


43,096
9,443
46,248
38,998
18,411
85,342


151-9
63-9
60-8
58-8
32-0
30-7


Rhode Island . .

New Jersey

[Michigan

lohio

[ New York

1 Connecticut


4,980
30,658
11,849
63,213
62,081

9,668


6,503
38,796
14,986
79,665
64,969
11,428


30-6
26-5


IlUnois

Indiana

Massachusetts . .
Pennsylvania...


26-5
26-0
24-7
18-2



During the decade the colored population in these twelve States
increased from 327,882 to 458,185, being 39-9 per cent., a little above
the ratio of increase for the entire colored population of the United
States ; but this was gained wholly in the first four States of the list,
the percentage of gain in the remaining eight being about equal to the
average gain of the white population in those States. The last two
tables appear to indicate that the movement of the colored population
is not great, but mainly toward the Southwestern States. And while
only four of the Western States, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana,
have received considerable accessions, the percentage of their gain
being high, the aggregate number of immigrants northward is com-
paratively small. The last five States of the list seem to have lost a
small portion of their colored population by emigi*ation.

What is the law of colored migration ? The colored man is act-
uated by the same motives in changing localities as any other man.
Social attraction, sympathy, opportunity for paying employment, with
facilities for reaching the new home — these determine the direction of
his movement. Climate is, no doubt, a consideration which cooperates



MOVEMENT OF THE COLORED POPULATION. 787

with others iu determiiihig the general result, a warm climate being
congenial to temperament and favorable to ease of living. In the
South, the drift is to the new lands and the rich planting-regions ; in
the Xorth, it is mainly to the accessible States in which employment is
to be had. The tables of population by counties show that the colored
people ai*e very thoroughly distributed over the country, thinning out
toward the North. In the same latitude the proportion of the colored
population bears a very uniform relation to the number of whites. In
tables giving the white and colored population of Northern States by
counties, the adjacent columns, representing the two classes, indicate
isimply on their face this uniformity of relation. There are many
exceptions, of course, as where, for example, in parts of New York,
Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, there is a large proportion of Irish,
the two races not harmonizing well together, since they are competi-
tors for the same kinds of employment. There were 25 per cent,
more colored in New York County in 1840 than in 18T0 ; while in
Hudson County, New Jersey, in which Jersey City is situated, there
is far less than the usual proportion of the colored element. But the
rule will hold in a general way, notwithstanding the exceptions by
whatsoever caused.

It is not the habit of the colored people to look up a vacancy in
some new State, and proceed to fill it with their own. race. If they
did they would have to be their own employers, and the prosperity of
the community would be of their own making. On the contrary, they
seem to find a place more congenial to their tastes and better adapted
to their wants by the side of and among white people. Here they
may get employment without making it for themselves. Instead,
therefore, of dying out by the side of the white man under freedom,
us has been supposed, they are really stronger to live there than they
would be in a settlement of colored people alone. This is so neces-
sarily where, as in the older States, capital is indispensable as the basis
of employment. It would seem that, in the industrial aspects of the
case, the white and colored man may be, under certain circumstances,
the complement of each other.

What will be the direction of colored migration in the future?
This will depend in part on the policy of States and of the General
Government toward the colored people. Formerly it was a current
speculation that the blacks would drift toward certain States in the
South, which would pass under colored control in all respects, to the
exclusion of the whites. This, however, is not likely to take place,
except by interference of the General Government, If, under the pre-
text of a free ballot, the bayonet is resorted to by any party in power
at "Washington, and certain States in the South are again brought
imder the control of ignorant masses led by political adventurers,
Southern society may be forced into a different form from that which
now prevails. Under the continuance of such a policy, if it could be



788 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.

maintained, certain States might become exclusively colored, and so-
ciety therein sink toward a form of semi-barbarism. The white would
eventually be driven out by political corruption, maladministration,
and State bankruptcy. And let no man be deceived : if the native
whites are compelled to abandon certain Southern localities on account
of uninstructed colored predominance in local administration, the
Yankee, or any other who is studious of thrift, will not take their
place. Only a few sharpers, and the vultures in search of political
carrion, will be found there. But this alternative of the " negro prob-
lem" is not likely to be adopted. Hardly any party is ready to go
into history with such a policy, for, if it tripped, as it might, it would
be bad for such party. It is the teaching of all history that those
who have had freedom of self-rule have proved themselves competent
to take it and hold it in spite of despots. This self-assertion is a' nec-
essary condition of freedom and its maintenance. There is no such
thing as freedom under exotic tutelage. If a people who are numeri-
cally in the majority can only be secured in their political rights by
national troops, then do such people illustrate political serfdom in be-
coming the tools of the party in power, and freedom becomes an abor-
tion by the method used to secure it.

The problem, then, is to be determined on the presumption that
local self-government in the South shall be in the hands of those who
are competent to direct it ; and that existing forces, under which the
South has multiplied so rapidly in population dm-ing the last ten years,
shall continue to operate.

Many of the planting-districts in the South contain already quite
as large a colored population as is compatible with interest and com-
fort. This is thoroughly felt, if not clearly seen, by the colored peo-
ple. They become the most dissatisfied with the situation, not where
they are distributed among the whites in smaller numbers, but in
districts where the colored population is greatest. Why so ? Not on
account of political terrorism by any means, but on account of the
bad footing up at the close of the working-season. These are the
places and this the reason Avhich give rise to that recent phenomenon
known as the "negro exodus." The tables indicate that there is emi-
gration from most of the former border slave States. But the move-
ment is individual, and not gregarious. It is undertaken with a rational
view of what is to be gained by the change, much after the fashion of
the whites, and it makes no noise in the newspapers as an "exodus."
Among the simple-minded and impulsive masses farther South it is
different. There it takes the form of a psychological epidemic, with
only a vague and fanatical conception of what is ahead. We have
only seen the beginning of this, perhaps, though the movement has its
drawbacks. Kot the most provident now leave the South ; very gen-
erally, no doubt, the least so. Not the best hands come — often the
worst. They have the old slave way, and the inaptitude for diversity



MOVEMENT OF THE COLORED POPULATION. 789

of labor, with characteristic indifference to their employers' interest.
They are not generally satisfactory help. If they stay North, they
live from hand to mouth, and when they die the town has to bury
them. A few return to the warmer climate of the South where wants
are less urgent and more easily supplied, and where the work to be
done is simpler in form and better adapted to their habits. There is,
therefore, a mild form of counter-exodus.

No doubt many portions even of the planting-regions in the older
Southern States will admit of a still denser colored population. And
while this continues to be the case no continuous heavy emigration is
to be expected. But the filling-up process will go on, and, when there
is crowding, relief will be had by emigration, if it is possible. The
richest portions of the country South are breeding-lands, whence must
flow increasing streams of colored migration, mainly to the westward,
as the last census indicates. At any rate, they will flow in the direc-
tion of least resistance ; and such are the forces which guide them,
whether they flow westward or northward, that the people they bear
become very thoroughly interdiffused among the whites. And while
they are less thrifty than white people generally, all are not so. There
are two distinct classes of colored economists. One is satisfied with
dependence on others for employment ; the other affects independent
homes, and struggles to secure them, however humble. Some even
acquire wealth. With wealth and independence will come greater
respect. Gradually will the race-prejudice weaken. Now there are
occasional marriages across the color-line ; then they will be more fre-
quent. This will accelerate the relative increase of the colored people,
and the Caucasianizing of the colored race. Even now they are no
longer negroes. One third has a large infusion of white blood, an-
other third has less, but still some, and of the other third it would be
difficult to find an assured specimen of pure African blood.

An English writer of distinction has found the solution of the
American race question, in the blending of the white and colored ele-
ments, in the production of an improved type of man. We who are on
tlie ground are generally skeptical as to the benefit thus to accrue ; and
it is not at all likely that amalgamation will ever be complete, under
the reign of whatever physiological philosophy. Nature does not act
in that thorough way ; and philosophy does little to coerce Nature.
Race prejudices and antipathies may abate, but they never wholly die
out. Even after the plebeians and patricians might intermarry and
tlie former be consuls, the patrician dames would relent none of their
inherited scorn and antipathy for their plebeian rivals. Such preju-
dice is imbibed as unconsciously, but as surely, as nourishment from
the mother's breast. It never ends. There will always be a colored
race, of more uniform and lighter shade than at present, and always a
white, even though branches of it perish in the fatal folds of luxury
and dissipation. It Avill not end by amalgamation with the colored



790



THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.



race, nor change by absorbing it. Intermixture of the white and col-
ored is destined, j^robably, to play a greater role than it now does ;
and this new race— for new it is — may greatly enlarge its proportion
of numbers on American soil, but it is not to be expected that it will
transcend in moral and intellectual elevation. It is probable that this
mixed race which is forming in our country has greater capabilities
than it generally gets credit for. In some respects its moral and social
qualities may be quite as desirable in a race of mankind as the cor-
responding qualities in white men ; but in intellect, in fertility of re-
source, in that which furthers progress and renders society and civili-
zation exalted and refined, it is not likely that any compound with a
fraction of Caucasian blood in it, will be equal to the Caucasian him-
self. In intellect, which, with Draper, we must regard as the lead-
ing and highest faculty of mind, it is not likely that any mixture* of
African blood, with all the advantages of development it may have,
will ever equal the historical Teuton. And there is less to be hoped
from the colored race in this country, because its progenitors on the
African side are a low type even of Africans, as one of the race candid-
ly admits (Rev. Edward W. Blyden, "a negro," "Fraser's Magazine").
Education may do a great deal, especially the education of practical
life in connection with the more gifted Teuton ; but with this spread
of the colored element, if it should still continue, while it may itself
experience a considerable degree of elevation, there must come a low-
ering, through this agency, of the average psychological level, and
this can not take place without affecting the general tone of society.
And it will so affect society, not only because of the relative gain of
numbers, if that should be, but, paradoxical as it may seem, by virtue,
also, of a certain degree of improvement which is above the lowest,
but does not reach the highest, whereby the colored element will ob-
tain a power in society, which, with fewer numbers and greater moral
subordination, it did not before have. Then, indeed, will there be
need of a " strong government," or, perhaps, it should rather be said,
then will it be easy to establish a strong government.



ABOUT COMETS.

Bt AAEON NICHOLS SKINNER,

rXITED STATES KAVAL OB8EEVATOKY, •WASHIXGTOX, D. C.

^ I ^HE study of astronomy reaches back to the very beginnings of
J- history, and through all the ages the ablest intellects have been
directed to the wellnigh impossible task of imraveling the celestial
motions. The terrestrial observer not being located at the center of
the motions of the solar system, the complexity arising from this com-



ABOUT COMETS. 791

pounding of the motion of the observer with the motion of the planet
obsei-ved rendered the pi'oblera very difficult.

Copernicus furnished the key, by showing that the sun and not the
earth is the center of the solar system. Tycho Brahe soon followed,
and furnished an extensive series of accurate observations that afford-
ed Kepler the material upon which he based his studies that devel-
oped those immortal laws defining the forms of the orbits of the
planets, the character of their motions, and the relation between the
dimensions of their orbits and their periods of revolution.

It remained for Newton to discover the existence of the law of
universal gravitation, of which Kepler's laws are an immediate se-
quence.

Thus the secrets of the motions of the planets were explained.
But comets, those erratic visitants of our system, whose advent in
olden time filled the mind with universal awe, were still an unfathomed
mystery. Suddenly they would blaze out in the sky, and as suddenly
pass out of sight, and no astronomer could tell whence they came or
whither they went, or the laws which governed their motions.

Newton first showed that comets also were obedient to the attrac-
tion of gravitation. He demonstrated this fact by means of the comet
of 1680. The orbit of this comet he found not to differ perceptibly
from a parabola.

After Newton, Edmund Halley, from a careful study of the comets
of 1531, 1G07, and 1G82, ventured the assertion that these were only
different appearances of one and the same body, whose period of revo-
lution was about seventy-five years. Ilalley, consequently, predicted
a reappearance of this comet in 1759. This comet was shown to move
in a very elongated ellipse. In accordance with prediction, reappear-
ances of this comet occurred in 1T59 and 1835.

Since the time of Newton all the comets which have come to view
have been submitted to a careful study. To determine the orbit of
any newly discovered member of our system, it is necessary that its
direction in space from the earth at three dates, as nearly equidistant
as may be, should be determined by observation.

The data for the problem are, then, as follows : the positions of the
earth with reference to the sun at three different dates, and the posi-
tions of the heavenly body with reference to the earth at the same
dates. The unknown elements which describe the character of the
orbit and its position in space are as follows :

I. The mean longitude of the body at any convenient epoch.

II. The semi-major axis of the orbit.

III. The eccentricity of the orbit.

IV. The longitude of the perihelion.

V. The longitude of the ascending node.

VI. The inclination between the orl)it-])l:ino and the ])l;in(' of the
earth's orbit.



792 THE POPULAR SCIEXCE MONTHLY.

Of the above, I indicates the position of the body in the orbit at
some definite time ; II gives the greatest semi-diameter of the ellipse ;
III gives the ratio of the distance of the focus from the center divided
by the semi-major axis ; IV, with VI, gives the position in space of
the greatest diameter of the ellipse ; V gives the position of the line
of intersection between the plane of the unknown orbit and the plane
of the earth's orbit.

From II may be determined immediately the period of revolution
by means of Kepler's law as follows : if a and a' are respectively the
semi-major axis of the unknown orbit and the earth's orbit, and t and
t' the respective periods of revolution, then we have from Kepler's law —

If the eccentricity of the orbit is very large, the portion of the ellipse
in the vicinity of the perihelion approximates to a parabola, which it
becomes when the eccentricity equals unity.

As a matter of history, the great majority of comet orbits hitherto
studied are either i:>arabolas or are portions of excessively elongated
ellipses, so as to be indistinguishable from parabolas, at least in the
part of the orbit traversed during visibility. This portion of the orbit
is always adjacent to the perihelion.

From the foregoing fact, and moreover because the computation
of a parabolic orbit is much simpler, there being one less unknown
quantity, preliminary comet orbits are always parabolic. Subsequent
investigations show whether the comet deviates perceptibly from the
parabola computed.

On October 10, 1880, Lewis Swift, of Rochester, New York, dis-
covered a comet which has proved to be of peculiar interest. From
its first discovery it has presented no brilliancy of appearance, for,
during its period of visibility, a telescope of considerable power was
necessary to observe it. Since this comet when in close proximity to
the earth was very faint indeed, its dimensions must be quite mod-
erate.

As soon after its apparition as the necessary 'observations of posi-
tion were obtained, its parabolic elements were computed by several
astronomers. After carefully comparing these elements with those of
previous comets, Mr. S. C. Chandler, of Boston, remarked the striking
similarity between them and those of Comet III of 1869. He imme-
diately suspected them to be one and the same body, revolving in an
elongated ellipse, having a period of eleven years, or a sub-multiple of
eleven years.

Mr. Chandler hereupon made some extended investigations, to de-
termine which period was the more probable. He showed that the
observed positions could be satisfied more closely with a period of five
and one half years.



ABOUT COMETS.



793



It seemed very desirable that elliptic elements should be deter-
mined for this comet without making any previous assumptions in
reference to any of the elements ; this was undertaken independently
by two astronomers of the United States Naval Observatory, each
from different data. Professor Frisby made use of observations of
October 25th, November 7th, and November 20th. Mr. Upton selected
the following dates : October 25th, November 23d, and December 22d.

The I'csults of these two computations agree very closely : the re-
sulting period is only a few days less than six years. The inclination
of the plane of the orbit to the plane of the ecliptic is about five and
one half degrees.

To show more strikingly the remarkable situation of the comet's
orbit with reference to the earth's orbit, the attention of the reader is
directed to the accompanying diagram (Fig. 1), which, for the sake qf




simplicity, shows the two orbits as if in one plane, when in reality the
angle of inclination between them is about five and one half degrees.
The line marked " line of nodes " is the line of their mutual intersec-
tion, the part of the comet's orbit in the vicinity of the perihelion
being north of the plane of the ecliptic.

The relative situations of the earth and comet are shown by their
positions in orbit at the date of discovery of 'the comet, October 10 ;



the date of the perihelion

1881.



•ml.



ISSO. and .Ta



794



THE POPULAR SCIEXCE MONTHLY



The nearest approach of the comet to the earth was about Novem-
ber 18, 1880, when it was distant from the earth 0-13 of the earth's
distance from the sun. The period, as determined by Professor
Frisby and Mr, Upton, is probably somewhat too large, owing to the
uncertainty arising from the shortness of the arc of observation. The
length of the period of revolution affords a reason for the fact that
the comet escaped observation at its last return ; since then it must
have been in the direction of the sun.

It will be seen, from the drawing, that at aphelion the comet passes



Online LibraryD. S. (David Samuel) MargoliouthThe Popular science monthly (Volume 19) → online text (page 99 of 110)