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revealing its identity to the associates, who get reports containing
it, and the many combined ledgers become a valuable guide. Yet all
such methods can show only actual movements in the market, and cannot
allow the prospects of future development to be determined, simply
because they cannot take into account the personal equations. Only an
acquaintance with the character and the temperament, the intelligence
and the habits, the energy and the weakness, of the head of a firm can
tell us whether the company, even with satisfactory resources, may go
down, or whether, even though embarrassed, it may hold out. The
psychological pioneer, therefore, aims not only toward an exchange of
ledger accounts, but toward a real psychological diagnosis and
prognosis. If a member of a firm is personally known to some scores of
business men who have had commercial dealings with him, and each one
of them, without disclosing his identity to any one but the central
bureau, sends to it a statement of personal impressions, a composite
picture of the mental physiognomy can be worked out. Of course all
this has been often done in the terms of popular psychology and in a
haphazard, amateurish way. The new plan is to arrange the questions
systematically under the point of view of scientific descriptive
psychology. Regular psychograms, in which the probability of a
particular kind of behavior is to be determined in an exact percentage
calculation, are to replace the traditional vagueness, as soon as a
sufficient number of reliable answers have been tabulated.

Commercial life as a whole finds its contact with psychology, of
course, not only in the problem of how to secure the best mental
effect. Those other questions which we have discussed essentially with
reference to factory life and industrial concerns, namely, how the
best man and the best work are to be secured, recur in the circle of
commercial endeavors. It seems, indeed, most desirable to devise
psychological tests by which the ability to be a successful salesman
or saleswoman may be determined at an early stage. The lamentable
shifting of the employees in all commercial spheres, with its
injurious social consequences, would then be unnecessary, and both
employers and employees would profit. Moreover, like the selection of
the men, the means of securing the most satisfactory work from them,
has also so far been left entirely to common sense. Commercial work
stands under an abundance of varying conditions, and each may have
influences the isolated effects of which are not known, because they
have not been studied in that systematic form which only the
experiment can establish. The popular literature on this whole group
of subjects is extensive, and in its expansion corresponds to the
widespread demand for real information and advice to the salesman. But
hardly any part of the literature in the borderland regions of
economics is so disappointing in its vagueness, emptiness, and
helplessness. Experimental psychology has nothing with which to
replace it to-day, but it can at least show the direction from which
decisive help may be expected in future.




XXIV

THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY


Here we may stop. From those elementary questions concerning the
mental effects, the path would quickly lead to questions of gravest
importance. What is the mental effect which the economic labor
produces in the laborer himself? How do economic movements influence
the mind of the community? How far do non-economic factors produce
effects on the psychical mechanism of the economic agents? But it
would be idle to claim to-day for exact psychology, with its methods
of causal thought, regions in which so far popular psychology, with
its methods of purposive thought, is still sovereign. Our aim
certainly was not to review the totality of possible problems related
to economic efficiency, but merely to demonstrate the principles and
the methods of experimental economic psychology by a few
characteristic illustrations. As all the examples which we selected
were chosen only in order to make clear the characteristic point of
view of psychotechnics, it is unimportant whether the particular
results will stand the test of further experimental investigations,
or will have to be modified by new researches. What is needed to-day
is not to distribute the results so far reached as if they were parts
of a definite knowledge, but only to emphasize that the little which
has been accomplished should encourage continuous effort. To stimulate
such further work is the only purpose of this sketch.

This further work will have to be a work of coöperation. The nature of
this problem demands a relatively large number of persons for the
experimental treatment. With most experimental researches in our
psychological laboratories, the number of the subjects experimented on
is not so important as the number of experiments made with a few
well-trained participants. But with the questions of applied
psychology the number of persons plays a much more significant rôle,
as the individual differences become of greatest importance. The same
problems ought therefore to be studied in various places, so that the
results may be exchanged and compared. Moreover, these psychological
economic investigations naturally lead beyond the possibilities of the
university laboratories. To a certain degree this was true of other
parts of applied psychology as well. Educational and medical
experimental psychology could not reach their fullest productivity
until the experiment was systematically carried into the schoolroom
and the psychiatric clinic. But the classroom and the hospital are
relatively accessible places for the scientific worker, as both are
anyhow conducted under a scientific point of view. The teacher and the
physician can easily learn to perform valuable experiments with school
children or with patients. This favorable condition is lacking in the
workshop and the factory, in the banks and the markets. The academic
psychologist will be able to undertake work there only with a very
disturbing expenditure of time and only under exceptional conditions.
If such experiments, for instance, with laborers in a factory or
employees of a railway are to advance beyond the faint first efforts
of to-day and are really to become serviceable to the cultural
progress of our time with effective completeness, they ought not to
remain an accidental appendix to the theoretical laboratories. Either
the universities must create special laboratories for applied
psychology or independent research institutes must be founded which
attack the new concrete problems under the point of view of national
political economy. Experimental workshops could be created which are
really adjusted to the special practical needs and to which a
sufficiently large number of persons could be drawn for the
systematic researches. The ideal solution for the United States would
be a governmental bureau for applied psychology, with special
reference to the psychology of commerce and industry, similar to the
model agricultural stations all over the land under the Department of
Agriculture.

Only when such a broad foundation has been secured will the time be
ripe to carry the method systematically into the daily work. The aim
will never be for real experimental researches to be performed by the
foreman in the workshop or by the superintendent in the factory. But
slowly a certain acknowledged system of rules and prescriptions may be
worked out which may be used as patterns, and which will not
presuppose any scientific knowledge, any more than an understanding of
the principles of electricity is necessary for one who uses the
telephone. But besides the rigid rules which any one may apply,
particular prescriptions will be needed fitting the special situation.
This leads to the demand for the large establishments to appoint
professionally trained psychologists who will devote their services to
the psychological problems of the special industrial plant. There are
many factories that have scores of scientifically trained chemists or
physicists at work, but who would consider it an unproductive luxury
to appoint a scientifically schooled experimental psychologist to
their staff. And yet his observations and researches might become
economically the most important factor. Similar expectations might be
justified for the large department stores and especially for the big
transportation companies. In smaller dimensions the same real needs
exist in the ordinary workshop and store. It is obvious that the
professional consulting psychologist would satisfy these needs most
directly, and if such a new group of engineers were to enter into
industrial life, very soon a further specialization might be expected.
Some of these psychological engineers would devote themselves to the
problems of vocational selection and appointment; others would
specialize on questions of advertisement and display and propaganda; a
third group on problems of fatigue, efficiency, and recreation; a
fourth on the psychological demands for the arrangement of the
machines; and every day would give rise to new divisions. Such a
well-schooled specialist, if he spent a few hours in a workshop or a
few days in a factory, could submit propositions which might refer
exclusively to the psychological factors and yet which might be more
important for the earning and the profit of the establishment than the
mere buying of new machines or the mere increase in the number of
laborers.

No one can deny that such a transition must be burdened with difficult
complications and even with dangers; and still less will any one doubt
that it may be caricatured. One who demands that a chauffeur or a
motorman of an electric railway be examined as to his psychical
abilities by systematic psychological methods, so that accidents may
be avoided, does not necessarily demand that a congressman or a
cabinet minister or a candidate for marriage be tested too by
psychological laboratory experiments, as the witty ones have proposed.
And one who believes that the work in the factory ought to be studied
with reference to the smallest possible expenditure of psychical
impulses is not convinced that the same experimental methods will be
necessary for the functions of eating and drinking and love-making, as
has been suggested.

And if it is true that difficulties and discomforts are to be feared
during the transition period, they should be more than outweighed by
the splendid betterments to be hoped for. We must not forget that the
increase of industrial efficiency by future psychological adaptation
and by improvement of the psychophysical conditions is not only in the
interest of the employers, but still more of the employees; their
working time can be reduced, their wages increased, their level of
life raised. And above all, still more important than the naked
commercial profit on both sides, is the cultural gain which will come
to the total economic life of the nation, as soon as every one can be
brought to the place where his best energies may be unfolded and his
greatest personal satisfaction secured. The economic experimental
psychology offers no more inspiring idea than this adjustment of work
and psyche by which mental dissatisfaction in the work, mental
depression and discouragement, may be replaced in our social community
by overflowing joy and perfect inner harmony.


THE END




NOTES


[1] The fullest account of the modern studies on individual
differences is to be found in: William Stern: Die differentielle
Psychologie in ihren methodischen Grundlagen. (Leipzig, 1911.)

[2] The practical applications of psychology in education, law, and
medicine, I have discussed in detail in the books: Münsterberg:
Psychology and the Teacher. (New York, 1910.) Münsterberg: On the
Witness Stand. (New York, 1908.) (English edition under the title:
Psychology and Crime.) Münsterberg: Psychotherapy (New York, 1909.)

[3] Frank Parsons: Choosing a Vocation. (Boston, 1909.)

[4] M. Bloomfield: The Vocational Guidance of Youth. (Boston, 1911.)

[5] Vocations for Boys. (Issued by the Vocation Bureau of Boston.
1912.) Vocations for Boston Girls. (Issued by the Girls' Trade
Education League. 1911.) Bulletins of Vocation Series. (Issued by the
Women's Educational and Industrial Union. 1911.)

[6] F.W. Taylor: The Principles of Scientific Management. (New York,
1911.) H.L. Gantt: Work, Wages, and Profits. (New York, 1912.) And the
books of Emerson, Gilbreth, Goldmark, etc., to be mentioned later.

[7] H. Emerson: Efficiency as a Basis for Operation and Wages. (New
York, 1912, p. 107.)

[8] H. Emerson: The Twelve Principles of Efficiency. (New York, 1912,
p. 176.)

[9] H Emerson: The Twelve Principles, p. 156.

[10] H. Emerson: The Twelve Principles, p. 177.

[11] F.W. Taylor: The Principles of Scientific Management, pp. 86-97.

[12] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Mr.
J.W. Bridges.

[13] Investigation of Telephone Companies: Bureau of Labor.
(Washington, Government Printing Office, 1910.)

[14] Ries: Beiträge zur Methodik der Intelligenzprüfung. (Zeitschrift
für Psychologie, 1910, vol. 56.)

[15] For a survey of a large number of such tests and bibliography,
compare: G.M. Whipple: Manual of Mental and Physical Tests.
(Baltimore, 1911.)

[16] F.L. Wells: The Relation of Practice to Individual Differences.
(American Journal of Psychology, 1912, vol. 23, pp. 75-88.)

[17] M. Bernays: Auslese und Anpassung der Arbeiterschaft der
geschlossenen Grossindustrie, dargestellt an den Verhältnissen der
Gladbacher Spinnerei und Weberei. (Leipzig, 1910, p. 337.)

[18] H.C. McComas: Some Types of Attention. (Psychological Review
Monographs, vol. 13, 3, 1911.)

[19] Max Weber: Zur Psychophysik der industriellen Arbeit. (Archiv für
Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, 1908 and 1909, vols. 27 and 28.)

[20] Bryan and Harter: Studies in the Telegraphic Language.
(Psychological Review, vol. 4.)

[21] W.F. Book: The Psychology of Skill. (University of Montana,
Publications in Psychology, 1910.)

[22] H. Münsterberg: Beiträge zur experimentellen Psychologie. (Book
iv, 1892.)

[23] A.J. Culler: Interference and Adaptability. (Archives of
Psychology, 1912.)

[24] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Mr.
L.W. Kline.

[25] Adolf Gerson: Die physiologischen Grundlagen der Arbeitsteilung.
(Zeitschrift für Sozialwissenschaft, 1907.)

[26] Karl Bücher: Arbeit und Rhythmus. (Fourth Edition, Leipzig, 1909,
p. 438.)

[27] Frank G. Gilbreth: Motion Study. (New York, 1911.)

[28] Taylor: The Principles of Scientific Management. (New York, 1911,
p. 71.)

[29] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Mr.
E.R. Riesen.

[30] R. Herbertz: Zur Psychologie des Maschinenschreibens.
(Zeitschrift für angewandte Psychologie, 1908, vol. 2, p. 551.)

[31] C.L. Vaughan: The Moter Power of Complexity. (Harvard
Psychological Studies, vol. 2, 1906, p. 527.)

[32] G.M. Stratton: Some Experiments in the Perception of the
Movement, Color, and Direction of Lights. (Psychological Review
Monographs, vol. 10, 1908.)

[33] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Miss
L.M. Seeley.

[34] H. Münsterberg: Beiträge sur experimentellen Psychologie. (Book
iv, 1892.)

[35] R.S. Woodworth: Accuracy of Voluntary Movement. (Psychological
Review Monographs, vol. 8, 1899.)

[36] B.A. Lenfest: The Accuracy of Linear Movement. (Harvard
Psychological Studies, vol. 2, 1906.)

[37] Ranschburg: Ueber die Bedeutung der Ähnlichkeit beim Erlernen,
Behalten und bei der Reproduktion. (Journal für Psychologie und
Neurologie, vol. 6.) Ranschburg: Zeitschrift für Psychologie und
Physiologie der Sinnesorgane. (Vol. 80, 1902.)

[38] H. Kleinknecht: The Interference of Optical Stimuli. (Harvard
Psychological Studies, vol. 2, 1906.)

[39] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Miss
O.E. Martin.

[40] Henry P. Kendall: Unsystematized, Systematized, and Scientific
Management. (In Addresses and Discussions at the Conference on
Scientific Management held at Dartmouth College, 1912.)

[41] Ernst Abbé: Gesammelte Abhandlungen. (Jena, 1908, vol. 3, p.
206.)

[42] A full survey of the problem and its literature is contained in:
Josephine Goldmark: Fatigue and Efficiency. (New York, 1912.)

[43] F.W. Taylor: The Principles of Scientific Management. (New York,
1911, p. 58.)

[44] W. Hellpach: Die geopsychischen Erscheinungen, Wetter, Klima und
Landschaft und ihr Einfluss auf das Seelenleben (Leipzig, 1911 p.
176-212.)

[45] Aschaffenburg: Praktische Arbeit unter Alkoholwirkung
(Psychologische Arbeiten - Kraepelin, vol 1, 1906.)

[46] Hildebrand Die Beeinflussung der Willenskraft durch den Alkohol
(Königsberg, 1910.)

[47] For the scientific facts concerning alcohol and bibliography
compare Hugo Hoppe: Die Tatsachen über den Alkohol (Munich, 1912.)

[48] H.L. Hollingworth: The Influence of Caffein on Mental and Motor
Efficiency. (New York, 1912.)

[49] Levenstein: Die Arbeiterfrage. (Munich, 1912.)

[50] W.D. Scott: The Psychology of Advertising. (Boston, 1908, p.
166.)

[51] D. Starch: Psychology of Preferred Positions. (Judicious
Advertising, New York, November, 1909.)

[52] C.T. Burnett: The Estimation of Number. (Harvard Psychological
Studies, vol. 2, p. 349.)

[53] E.S. Rogers: The Unwary Purchaser: A Study in the Psychology of
Trade Mark Infringement. (Michigan Law Review, vol. 8, 1910.)

[54] The experiments are being conducted and will be published by Mr.
G.A. Feingold.

[55] W.D. Scott: Influencing Men in Business. (New York, 1911.)




INDEX


Abstinence, 230.

Accidents, 63, 66, 76, 213, 224.

Adjustment, 35, 158.

Advertisement, 255.

Alcohol, 225, 227.

Analysis, 47, 123.

Apperception, 266.

Applied psychology, 5, 10, 15, 304.

Appointment, 116.

Apprentice, 145.

Arguments, 295.

Art, 273.

Artificial track, 71.

Association, 105, 156.

Attention, 21, 66, 101, 106, 135, 197, 206, 284.

Attitude, 68, 75.


Beauty, 272, 278.

Beginner, 182.

Buying, 294.


Caffein, 232.

Capitalism, 143.

Card test, 87.

Choice of vocation, 32, 34.

Color blindness, 30, 57.

Complication, 84.

Concentration, 136.

Confession, 18.

Consciousness, 247.

Conservation, 38.

Consulting psychologist, 307.

Conversation, 208.

Counting, 175.

Correlation, 134.

Court, 292.

Credit bureau, 299.

Criminal, 14.

Customer, 298.


Decision, 85, 94.

Discrimination, 74.

Display, 272.

Dispositions, 27, 125, 170.

Distraction, 206.

Distribution, 276.

Disturbances, 210.

Division of labor, 28, 51, 191.

Dynamogenic, 173.


Economics, 19, 243, 250.

Educational psychology, 11.

Efficiency, 50, 144, 158, 180, 190, 223, 225.

Effort, 161.

Electric railway, 63, 69, 180.

Energy, 175.

Entertainment, 233.

Ergograph, 149.

Exactitude, 186.

Examinations, 29.

Excitability, 226.

Experimental psychology, 4, 57, 251.

Expert, 292.


Factory, 122, 191, 212, 233, 279, 306.

Failure, 35.

Fatigue, 63, 180, 192, 206, 211, 218.

Feeling, 147, 157, 253.

Fitness, 53, 60, 116.

Foresight, 64.


Grading, 103, 107.

Groups, 129.


Habits, 150, 182.

Handwriting, 134.

History, 248.

Household, 177.


Illusions, 277.

Imagination, 66.

Imitation, 236, 282.

Inclination, 126.

Individual differences, 8, 10, 28, 82, 125, 129, 199, 222.

Industrial experiments, 67.

Industry, 59, 160, 191.

Inhibition, 84, 162, 176, 203.

Injuries, 213.

Intelligence, 102.

Interest, 194.

Interference, 154.

Interruption, 183.

Intuition, 53.


Jurisdiction, 283.


Labels, 279, 282.

Labor legislation, 63.

Learning, 141, 147.

Legal psychology, 14, 282.

Localization of sound, 95.

Locomotives, 176.

Logic, 248.


Machine, 160, 162.

Mason, 164.

Meaning, 247.

Medical psychology, 12.

Memory, 101, 147, 171, 226, 227, 259.

Methods, 148.

Mills, 117.

Miniature models, 67.

Monotony, 190, 198.

Motormen, 63, 74.

Movement, 145, 161, 169, 180, 185.

Muscles, 160.


Nationality, 130.

Nervous disease, 13.

Newspaper, 259.

Noise, 173.

Number, 275.

Numerical results, 77.


Optics, 277.

Organization, 154.


Packing, 282.

Pauses, 214.

Pedagogy, 11, 146.

Personality, 112.

Position, 269.

Postal cards, 286.

Prejudices, 133.

Psychiatry, 12.

Psychological laboratories, 5, 45, 257, 304.

Psychophysical law, 252.

Psychotechnics, 17.


Qualities, 27.

Questionnaires, 43.


Race, 130.

Rapidity, 187.

Reaction-time, 54, 65.

Recognition, 268.

Repetition, 148, 162, 192, 262.

Rest, 217.

Rhythm, 162, 187.


Salesman, 294.

Satisfaction, 248.

Saving, 165, 184.

School, 128, 146, 219.

Scientific management, 49, 159, 164, 168, 297.

Selection, 51.

Self-knowledge, 30, 44.

Self-observation, 45.

Selling, 294.

Sewing, 178.

Sex, 132.

Shifting, 118.

Ship models, 67.

Ship service, 83.

Shoveling, 166.

Signals, 176.

Similarity, 283, 286.

Size, 261.

Sleep, 224.

Social influences, 221.

Speed, 169, 233.

Subdivision, 22.

Suggestion, 274, 295.


Task, 237.

Technical sciences, 17.

Technique, 158, 161.

Telegraphy, 150.

Telephone Service, 97.

Temperature, 223.

Tests, 76, 80, 105, 111.

Trade Unions, 50.

Training, 125, 141, 150.

Type-setting, 124.

Typewriting, 151, 170.


Uncertainty, 284.

Unfitness, 31.

Uniformity, 193. 199.


Values, 245.

Visibility, 172.

Vividness, 261.

Vocation, 32, 40, 58.

Vocational counselor, 41.

Vocational guidance, 37, 48.


Wages, 127, 165, 195, 235.

Waste, 38, 145, 160.

Will-impulse, 149, 227.

Witness, 14.

Women, 132, 161.

Working-day, 212, 296.








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