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Final report, national social service reform 1115 project (Volume 1973) online

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counties and second in semi-urban/rural counties, while it was seventh in
rural counties.

The final service need area in rural areas was family planning wi^-h
only two resources available. These were a family planning clinic and an
emergency pregnancy referral resource. Family planning was ranked as a
greater priority need in the other geographical areas.

In the area of AFDC two of the service need areas had no services avail-
able while two others had only one. Thus, half of these areas had a total
of only two resources. The other four service need areas are also much more



dependent on not only fewer resources, but the more traditional type
resources, i.e. employment and training on Vocational Rehabilitation, WIN,
and the employment service agency.

Child Welfare Services : Of the eight service needs in the area of
CWS, there are only a total of fifteen resources available to SRS service
workers.

Day care, rated first in priority service needs has no resources.
This does not necessarily mean there are no day care homes available, but
implies there are no day care centers, coordinating services (4 C's),
residential treatment centers or the like.

Counseling is second as a service need and has a total of three re-
sources available - all mental health centers.

Extension service is the only resource present for homemaker services,

There is one family planning clinic available for this service area
which is ranked fourth.

Foster care, an important and necessary part of CWS, is ranked fifth
and has one resource, the Faith Lutheran Home available for use.

Two of the last three service needs do not appear on either of th*^
urban or semi-urban/rural lists of service needs. Authority to offer ser-
vices on reservations is listed sixth in terms of priorities and has one
resource available - Wolf Point and Poplar Health Department.

The eighth priority service need is medical-dental services and also
does not appear on the other two geographical area lists in this manner.
There are a total os six resources available, half of which are the public



health nurses.

Protective services was ranked seventh and listed two resources,
both of which are the probation department. Protective services were
listed as a greater service need area in both urban and semi -urban/rural
areas.

Adult : Adult service needs in rural areas have most of the same
service needs as the other two geographical areas with virtually no
priority differences. Again, the areas will be listed by priority needs
and the absence of resources in various areas will be noted.

Homemaker services, listed as extremely important in all geograph-
ical areas in adult service needs shows only one resource - extension office.

Transportation is ranked second and although not verified, might pos-
sibly use Red Cross as a resource.

Foster care for adults shows no resources available.

Medical services in general, rely upon public health nurses and hos-
pitals. There were a total of eight listed in this area - five public
health and three hospitals.

One county listed a Meals-on-Wheels program and this service need was
listed as sixth in terms of service priorities.

There were three senior centers listed as available which have been
considered as a resource under protective services.

The eighth and final service need area for adult services was substi-
tute care facilities. There were four resources in this area - all nursing
homes.



SUMMARY
It can be seen that many of the priority service needs do not seem
to vary to a great extent in some of the geographical areas, although
there are exceptions to this trend. The significant points which appear
seem to be the following:

1. Very few resources are available for service workers in the
rural counties and to a lesser degree in the semi-urban/rural
counties.

2. A question of quality has to be raised in view of the apparent
abundance of resources in specific areas while these particular
areas are still listed as a priority service need area. If re-
sources are available it appears need should diminish.

3. There appears to be a clear cut difference in workers' roles,
job tasks, and responsibilities between urban counties and
rural areas. This could be seen more clearly on a continuum
with rural counties at one extreme with few resources and urban
counties at the other extreme with abundant resources. Semi-
urban/rural counties occupy the center on the continuum. The
suggestion here is the differences between urban social work
and rural social work, i.e. rural social workers would either
have to be trained to provide a service normally availabls in

an agency not considered S.R.S. or they should be able to possess
expertise to develop such a resource - perhaps on a regional concept.



NEW SERVICE AMENDMENTS TO THE FAMILY AND ADULT PROGRAMS
The list of service need areas as listed by counties in Montana and
the services itemized under the family service program and the adult ser-
vice program of the recently enacted amendments to S.R.S. is not too far
apart. Of all the priority service need areas there appear to be two
in AFDC which are not included in the new service amendments; in CWS
there are three; and in adult there are five. Each of these areas will
be briefly discussed.

AFDC : In AFDC there are two areas which are not specifically addressed
in the new amendments - family counseling services and outreach services.
However, it does appear that each of these areas might be assumed under a
service of the new amendments. Family counseling could be subsumed under
the service of protective services for children. For under this section
it reads: "This means responding to instances, and substantiating the
evidence of neglect, abuse, or exploitation of a child; helping parents
recognize the causes thereof and strengthening (through arrangement of
one or more of the services included in the State plan) parental ability
to provide acceptable care; or, if that is not possible, bringing the
situation to the attention of appropriate courts or law enforcement agen-
cies, and furnishing relevant data." The other service - that of outreach
could be included under a number of new services, perhaps most appropriately
that of number 12 - home management and other functional educational services,

CWS: In CWS there were three services listed by counties but not in-
cluded by the new service amendments: counseling unwed mothers, adoptive
services, and authorization to offer services on Indian reservations. The
first two appear to be provided for by the new services included under pro-
tective services for children and protective services for adults. The



third dealing with Indian reservations appears to be an area outside the
present jurisdiction of the new service amendments, therefore would most
appropriately not be subsumed in the new services offered by the State
and county S.R.S. offices.

Adult : In adult services there appeared to be five priority service
needs listed by counties and not specifically included in tha new service
amendments. These include counseling services, friendly visiting, out-
reach services, community resource (referral and development) and more
substitute care facilities. It appears that all of these could be included
in two and possibly three service categories for adults; namely, under
day care services for adults, foster care services for adults, and/or
protective services for adults. A fourth service area, chore services
could also be utilized to subsume community resource (referral and develop-
ment.)

CONCLUSION
Thus, there is little doubt that of all the service needs listed by
counties of various geographical areas and sizes, all but one could be
and are accounted for under the new service amendments.

However, there is going to be a need for further development of re-
sources, particularly in the rural and semi-urban/rural counties and/or
greater training and expertise of service workers in these areas.

It would also appear that a higher quality of service resources is
needed within the urban counties, however, this problem is outside the
scope of the present paper.



J



APPENDIX 8
Categorical and Service Status Projections
Population Projections
SRS Client Projections



NATIONAL SERVICE REFORM PROJECT - NSR - 1115

Introduction

The new federal regulations governing services in the S.R.S. have
changed, thus those with incomes of 150% of the state's financial assis-
tance standards will be eligible for services. With these new changes
and guidelines now available, the following report will attempt to iso-
late certain variables, needs, and services which will be affected by
the new federal regulations.

This report will complete the work outlined in Paases I & II of the
recommended National Service Reform Project - 1165, as approved by the
federal government. Namely, the following broad areas will be covered
in this paper: current categorical assistance - service status; analysis
of social service needs and goals; resource evaluation; new service amend-
ments to family and adult programs; and the conclusion. Under each of
these areas the following information will be included: Under current cat-
egorical assistance - service status will be migration trends and projec-
tions; poverty and female headed households; and potential service needs.
Under analysis of social service needs and goals will be needs and goals
assessments; urban county correlation; semi-urban-rural county correlation;
and rural county correlation; and conclusion of service needs and goal
analysis. The third area of resource evaluation will contain the following
information on resources: urban county - AFDC, CWS, and adult; semi-urban-
rural county - AFDC, CWS, add adult; rural county - AFDC, CWS, and adult;
and summary. The final two areas will contain the new service amendments
to family and adult programs and the conclusion.



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Current Categorical Assistance - Service Status
The July 1, 1972, population figure for Montana was 719,000 or an
increase of 3.5% over the 1970 census figure of 694,409. As of Febru-
ary, 1973, there were 36,383 individuals who received financial aide
from the Social Rehabilitative Services (hereafter known as the Depart-
ment.) Of this total, 30, 157 were eligible for services under current
regulations from the Department.

The statistics for all categories except AFDC (Aid to Families with
Dependent Children) count each individual as a case while ADC counts each
family as a case; thus, in order to insure uniformity, this report shall
comply with this practice of counting an AFDC family as one case. Using
these figures then, the total number of cases eligible for services in
February, 1973, was 16,741. This includes 1,905 in nursing homes; 2,802
OAA recipients; 6,662 AFDC families; 182 ANB recipients; 3,030 APTD recip-
ients; and 2,160 CWS cases.

One of the changes from the current regulations which will increase
the needs for resources and service delivery systems is the area of adult
aid categories which includes Aid to the Blind (AB), Aid to the Permanent-
ly and Totally Disabled (APTD), Old Age Assistance (OAA), and medical
assistance. Individuals who qualify for medical assistance will be eli-
gible for services as will those whose income lays 150% or less above the
public assistance standard. This change from the current status will cer-
tainly increase service needs.

Trends in growth demonstrate the following:

Old Age Assistance : OAA has been reduced from 7,000+ recipients in
1960 to 2,802 in February, 1973. In January, 1968, there were 3,905 OAA



recipients in Montana. Thus there has been a net loss of 1,103 OAA
recipients in the past 5 years. In the past 13 years the decrease has
been even more appreciable - 4,398 or 62.8%.

Aid to Families with Dependent Children : Of all the public assis-
tance programs, AFDC has grown the fastest over the years. Since 1968
there has been an increase of 3,973 or 60.6% in the total number of AFDC
families. Since 1960, AFDC families have grown from less than 1900
families to the current total of 6,662 families.

Aid to the Permanently and Totally Disabled : APTD caseload has in-
creased just less than 50% in the past five years, from 1503 cases to
2979 cases as of February, 1973. The increase since 1960 has been from
1400 in 1960 to the current total. From 1960 to 1968, the increase was
around 100 cases, while from 1968 to 1973, it doubled.

Aid to the Needy Blind : ANB has been rather stable over the past
few years having grown only five cases in the past five years - from
176 in January, 1968, to the current 181. However, ANB does not appear
to be growing slowly each year, for in January, 1972, the number of cases
was 187.

Child Welfare Services : CWS totals 2160 and includes children in
their own homes, relatives' homes, foster homes, trial adoptive homes,
child caring institutions, and an elsewhere category. The CWS caseload
has remained rather stable over the past five years although there has
been a slight increase.



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ProjectJons

Projections of future changes in the services within the Department
must reflect current changes in the demographic characteristics of the
State, of the trend in the migration patterns within the State, of the
values of the people and the style of living of the people of Montana.
Services should also show the changes in the rules and regulations for
public assistance. Some of the demographic changes will now be discussed.

Birth Rates and Age Groups : A reduction in the birth rate within
the State is going to further reduce the number of children in the age
category five years and under. Birth rates have decreased from 95.3 per
1,000 in 1970 to 94.9 per 1,000 in 1971. In 1971 there were a total of
1172 recorded out-of-wedlock births in Montana. Changes in values as
whether to keep or relinquish out-of-wedlock children will result in more
women keeping their children, thus possibly raising the dependency needs
of mother and child.

The number of children in the age category five years and under dropped
appreciably from 1960 to 1970 and can be expected to continue to drop from
its 8.2% of the total population.

The age groups 25 to 44 years have also decreased in numbers. High
increases occurred in the age group 15 to 24, with smaller gains in the age
groups of 45 to 64, and 65 and over. However, the OAA case count continues
to drop in spite of this increase. Thus, we see the potential number of
women of child bearing ages increasing the fastest while birth rates are
dropping.



Migration, Growth Patterns, and Employment : The migration patterns
within the State are such that they will effect resources and service del-
ivery systems. Over the past ten years 42 counties in Montana showed pop-
ulation losses, with 28 losing more than 10% of their 1960 population.
The two standard metropolitan areas (SMA) both gained approximately 13%
population while nine other counties gained 13.3% or more.

Since the 1970 census these trends continue, generally rural losses
and urban gains. There has been an out-of-state migration of approximately
56,000 individuals.

Of the five largest counties, four have gained anywhere from 3.8 to
5.6% increase in population since the 1970 census. Only one. Silver Bow
has lost population, having decreased by 1% or 400 individuals. This loss
may reflect a change in the employment area, namely the decrease in mining
employment opportunities. For example, the area of mineral employment de-
creased from 15,000 in the 1950's to an estimated 4,000 in 1969. The dev-
elopment of the coal industry could offset this somewhat in the future,
however, this remains to be seen.

Other areas of decrease in employment opportunities from 1960 will or

has occurred in the areas of:

agriculture 16.5% to 12.1%

mining 3.1% to 2.2%

construction 4.7% to 4.3%

transportation &
public utilities 8.1% to 6.3%

all other non-
agricultural 12.8% to 10.7%



Increases will occur in manufacturing, real estate, finance, in-
surance, wholesale and retail, services, and government employment, but
not enough to offset the losses.

In 1950, 53,000 people were employed in agriculture in the State -
23% of the total employment. In 1968, this figure was 34,000..'

Economic Growth : The economic growth of Montana lags behind that
of the U.S. in general .

In 1960 we accounted for .36% of the total of employed in the U.S.
In 1970 this figure was .33%. Our unemployment rate in 1971 was 6.9%
with only eight states having higher rates than this. By January, 1973,
this figure was 9.2%. Approximately 44% of the Indian work force is un-
employed in Montana.

Even though the birth rate is decreasing, the marriage and divorce
rates continue to rise. In 1970 the marriage rate was 10 per 1,000 or
nearly double the figure of 5.6 per 1,000 in 1965. The divorce rate,
however, has also increased nearly two-fold form 2.8 per 1,000 in 1965,
to 4.4 per 1,000 in 1970. Montana has one of the highest rates of divorce
in the United States.

Projection

General : With the National Service Reform Amendments now completed,
it appears that the number of potential individuals in the State eligible
for services may increase to a greater number than are currently being
served. The new regulations state that not more than 10% of the federal
funds shall be paid in providing services to individuals who are not recip-



ients of aid or of assistance. This will affect the total number who
actually receive services.

Although a total figure is somewhat difficult to compute, the
maximum figure will be estimated and will be derived by taking 10% of
the figures computed for 1978.

State Population Projections : According to the estimates, population
is going to increase so that by 1975 the Montana population will be 712,000;
by 1980 this figure will be 741,000; 1985 -779,000; and by 1990 it will be
816,000 or 122,000 more than out 1970 figure. An estimated 17.5% increase
in less than twenty years.

However, the July, 1972, estimate was 719,000 or 7,000 more than the
1975 estimate. This then points out the tremendous growth now taking place
in Montana.

With these data and estimates in mind the following predictions are
made regarding increases and/or decreases over the next five years:

Old Age Assistance : The decrease in Old Age Assistance has slowed
since the 1970 census and may be expected to continue this trend over the
next five years, although the actual numbers will continue their decline.
The number of OAA cases five years from now, February, 1978, will number
1877. This will be a decrease of 34% of the current 2802 active OAA cases.
Estimates for potential service cases in OAA in 1978 are for a maximum of
2,064 individuals.



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Aid to Families With Dependent Children: Increases in AFDC will
push the total numbers up to at least 10,657 cases. This is based on an
increase of only 12% per year, excluding population increases. This
figure could rise to as much as 11,500 cases, depending on how quickly
the population increases. With changes in styles of living, changing
patterns in relinquishing or keeping an out-of-wedlock child, population
migration patterns and economic development in the State, the later figure
appears more realistic at this time and could be even higher. The 1978
service potential ^figure is estimated at 12,650 in AFDC.

Aid to the Permanently and Totally Disabled : With APTD increasing
50% since 1968, it is estimated this figure will rise to at least 4545.
If population increases are taken into consideration this figure could
easily top 5,000 by 1978. Thus, the potential of service cases could
reach a maximum of 5,500 cases by 1978.

Nursing Home Care : The growth of nursing home care has been as
great as that of AFDC, thus an appreciable increase will occur in this
category from the current 1,905 to at least 3,047 and possibly as many
as 3,450. As longevity increases, so will the numbers in nursing home
care.

Child Welfare Services : The areas of CWS have increased the slowest
of those categories increasing. Estimates put the number of CWS cases at
a minimum of 2,600 and a maximum of 3,000 by 1978.

Aid to the Needy Blind : The size in number of ANB is not going to
increase to any great degree. Taking population increases into considera-



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tlon, the inumber should remain under 210 for the entire state. This
allows for a 15% increase in the next five years. The figure for ser-
vices to blind individuals could be approximately 230 by 1978.

Poverty Status

There are currently 37,870 families living below estimated poverty
standards in Montana or with incomes below $4,999. Another 12,104 fam-
ilies live with less than $6,000 incomes. According to census figures
there were 67,994 persons living bel'ow the poverty level in 1970. As
you recall, the Department assisted 36,383 individuals in the State in
February, 1973.

In 1970, there were 46,105 females, 14 years or older whose spouse
was either absent, separated, or divorced, or deceased. Excluding de-
ceased spouses, this total was 16,248 females. The largest number of
divorces or annulments for females occurs between the ages of 20-24.

Of the 91,000 women available for employment, 6,200 were unemployed
in 1970. Over 85,000 were employed.

Although our labor force is large with both men and women employed,
the number of families In poverty remains high. Montana ranked 33rd in
per capita income for the United States in 1970. The average income of
wage earners was 18% below the ULS. average of $3900 even though we were
13% above the national average in 1948. It appears that Montana is not
gaining nearly as fast as the nation as a whole as these figures point out.



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Female Headed Households : Statistics for female headed households
who may be potential ptiblic assistance recipients are extremely difficult
to ascertain. According to the 1970 census, there were 11,488 separated
or divorced women in Montana. Of these, over 9,000 were divorced. Fur-
ther, there were a total of 6,973 female headed households below the pov-
erty level. Thus, of the total of divorced and separated women in the
State in 1970, 60.6% were below poverty level.

In January, 1970, there were a total of 3,668 AFDC families in Montana.
For the most part these families were and are predominantly female headed
households. Out of the total of separated and divorced women in Montana in
1970, 31.9% were receiving financial assistanc from the Social Rehabilita-
tion Service.

An interesting but unexplained statistic is that of the nearly 7,000
female headed households below the poverty level in Montana in 1970, only
3,668 or roughly half were receiving public assistance. This figure for
February, 1973, is now 6,662. The rapid increase may be attributable to
getting aid to more of the eligible people in the State.

An assumption made for the purposes of this report is that of the
female headed households in the State - 13,791, many are near poverty or
just above the poverty level. Keeping in mind that 7,000 were below the
poverty level in 1970, then roughly half were above the poverty level.
The distribution of female headed households probably conforms to the
bell-shaped curve in terms of income distribution; thus with the new fed-
eral regulations encompassing the 150% income limit for eligibility, as
many as 10,338 female headed households could be eligible for services.



•n-



Again, however, the 10% limitation may control this figure somewhat,
but the fact remains that this number serves as a maximum in terms of
potential service recipients.

Potential Service Needs

The need for increases in potential services within Montana is ob-
vious by the previous discussion of population increases. By population
increases alone the needs would increase by 1/5 in the next 17 years. The
shifts in population location from rural to urban will also shift the ser-
vice needs. Although we have only two SMA's, the urban problems experienced
by cities around the country should alert us to potential service needs.
Our minority population is increasing with the Indians totaling 35,000 in
Montana. Blacks and other minorities are still a very small part of the
total population, however, this does not decrease, in fact may increase the
services needed to this small but growing target group.

With reduced birth rates, higher educational achievements, changes In
employment markets and fewer children five and under, more individuals, par-
ticularly females will be freed for the labor market if they desire to go to


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