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Department of State bulletin (Volume v. 56, Jan- Mar 1967) online

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Asian Bureau 72

Institutions for Order (Sisco) 64

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

North Atlantic Council Meets at Paris (com-
munique) 49

Secretary Rusk's News Conference of Decem-
ber 21 42

Presidential Documents. President Frei of Chile
To Visit the United States 71

Science. U.N. General Assembly Endorses Outer
Space Treaty (Goldberg, text of resolution) . 78

South West Africa. Institutions for Order
(Sisco) 64

Southern Rhodesia

Institutions for Order (Sisco) 64

Security Council Votes Mandatory Sanctions
Against Southern Rhodesia (Goldberg, text
of resolution) 73

Trade. Mexican-U.S. Trade Committee Holds
Second Meeting 70

Treaty Information

Current Actions 85

Income Tax Convention Signed With Trinidad

and Tobago 84

U.N. General Assembly Endorses Outer Space

Treaty (Goldberg, text of resolution) ... 78

Trinidad and Tobago. Income Tax Convention
Signed With Trinidad and Tobago . ... 84



U.S.S.R. Secretary Rusk's News Conference of
December 21 42

United Kingdom. Security Council Votes Man-
datory Sanctions Against Southern Rhodesia
(Goldberg, text of resolution) 73

United Nations

Institutions for Order (Sisco) 64

Secretary Rusk's News Conference of Decem-
ber 21 42

Security Council Votes Mandatory Sanctions
Against Southern Rhodesia (Goldberg, text
of resolution) 73

U.N. General Assembly Endorses Outer Space
Treaty (Goldberg, text of resolution) ... 78

U.S. Asks U.N. Secretary-General for Help in
Seeking Peace (Goldberg) 63

Viet-Nam

Mr. Lilienthal To Head U.S. Team Studying
Vietnamese Development 69

Secretary Rusk's News Conference of Decem-
ber 21 42

U.S. Asks U.N. Secretary-General for Help iii
Seeking Peace (Goldberg) 63

Viet-Nam and the International Law of Self-
Defense (Meeker) 54

Name Index

Ball, George W 69

Goldberg, Arthur J 63,73,78

Johnson, President "71

Lilienthal, David E 69

Meeker, Leonard C 54

Rusk, Secretary 42

Sisco, Joseph J 64



Check List of Department of State
Press Releases: December 19-25

Press releases may be obtained from the
Office of News, Department of State, Wash-
ington, D.C., 20520.

Releases issued prior to December 18 which
appear in this issue of the Bulletin are Nos.
291 of December 12 and 292 of December 13.



No.

»294



Date

12/19



295 12/20



Sabjeet

NATO communique (original
NATO document printed here-
in).

Advisory panel for Bureau of
Near Eastern and South
Asian Affairs.

Joint Mexican-U.S. Trade Com-
mittee meeting.

Rusk: news conference of De-
cember 21.

Termination of income tax con-
vention with Honduras.

U.S. observers under Antarctic
Treaty (rewrite).

IMCO Subcommittee recommends
new passenger-ship standards.

Travel restrictions.

Income tax convention with
Trmidad and Tobago.

* Not printed.

t Held for a later issue of the Buixetin.



296


12/21


297


12/21


t298


12/22


299


12/23


t300


12/23


t301
302


12/23
12/23



it U.S. Government Printing Office: 1966—251-932/27



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The Promise of the New Asia

U.S. Policy in the Far East as Stated by President Johnson on His Pacific Journey



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dent Johnson during his 17-day journey, October 17-November 2, to seven Asian and Pacific na
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mander in Viet-Nam, made before the chiefs of state and heads of government of the seven alli«
nations at the Manila Summit Conference, as well as the texts of the three historic document
issued at the close of the Manila Conference: the Goals of Freedom, the Joint Communique, am
the Declaration of Peace and Progress in Asia and the Pacific.

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THE OFFICIAL WEEKLY RECORD OF UNITED RTATFS FOREIGN POLICY



THE

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

BULLETIN



Vol. LVI, No. U38




January 16, 1967



THE WORK OF THE 21st SESSION OF THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Statement by Ambassador Arthur J. Goldberg 98

U.N. ADOPTS INTERNATIONAL COVENANTS ON HUMAN RIGHTS
Statement by Ambassador Patricia R. Harris and Texts of Covenants lOi



WORLDWIDE NUCLEAR POWER— PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS

Article by Glenn T. Seaborg
Chairman, U.S. Atomic Energy Commissioii 90



For index see inside back cover



By 1980, Dr. Seuborg predicts, fissionable material will be
produced over the face of the globe "siifficient for the poten-
tial production of a substantial amount of the world's
electrical power — or, alternatively, sxifficient for tens of
nuclear weapons a day." This article, in which Dr. Seaborg
discusses the importance of miclear power to a rapidly
expanding population, is based on a lecture he delivered in
London on October 2 A, 1966, before the British Nuclear
Energy Society.



Worldwide Nuclear Power— Progress and Problems



by Glenn T. Seaborg

Chairman, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission



Before one can discuss the future of power
with any realism, one must first tal]< about
people — people in terms of population and
the ever-growing pressure of population. This
is a subject of overwhelming importance
today, and I am sure that many are familiar
with the infonnation in figure 1 showing the
exponential growth of the world's population
projected to the year 2000. The cui-ve on this
graph bears a simple but most relevant mes-
sage: Between the year 1960 and the year
2000, the world's population will about
double. It will rise from 3 billion to 6 billion
people. Now, if all the other aspects of civili-
zation as we know it were to remain the
same and proportionally each individual
consumed the same amount of energy tomor-
row as today, the energy demand should also
double.

But we know that this will not be the case,
and figure 2 shows the actual situation. This
graph of past and projected annual world-
wide energy consumption covers the same
period as the previous population curve. The
previous curve, noi-malized to the worldwide
energy consumption curve at the year 1950,
has also been included for comparison's sake.
Tliis makes obvious the fact that the con-



sumption of energy by individuals does not
have a constant value. In highly technological
societies, such as the United States and the
United Kingdom, there has been and will be
a significant increase in energy consumption
per capita. In the emerging nations, however,
there probably will be a startling increase.
The consumption of energy in these countries
today is almost nil compared to what it might
be tomorrow.

It is difficult to comprehend fully the
energy demands of a world of double today's
population with all its people enjoying living
standards approaching those of the people of
the United Kingdom and the United States.
Think of the magnitude of energy that may
be required some day if we were to air-
condition much of Africa and the subcon-
tinent of Asia and heat population centers
that will be growing up in subarctic regions.
What would it mean to provide the power
required to transport people and materials
to the remote ijarts of the globe to satisfy
the needs of an ever-expanding population
and provide sufficient power and fresh water
for home, industry, and agriculture? Imagine
the future energy needs involved in growing,
processing, and distributing food, from land



90



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



and sea, for a world i^opulation double that
of today — and demanding an adequate diet
for all. These are only a few of the energy
challenges we face.

Recognizing the great importance of
energy for future global social and economic
well-being — perhaps for our veiy survival —
consider one important form of energy —
electricity. The past and projected worldwide
annual electricity production is represented
in figure 3. Again, the worldwide annual
energy consumption as sho^vn in the previous
figure has been normalized to the worldwide
electricity production cui've at the year 1950
and projected to the year 2000. I believe it is
particularly evident that electricity will pro-
vide an even greater fraction of the energy
consumed by man in the ensuing decades than
it does today. This should not be a surprising
fact when one realizes that many parts of the
world are just being ushered into the electric
age. Further, electricity is a particularly
easily managed forni of energy. It can be
simply transported by wire, conveniently and
economically generated in large blocks, and
it is capable of being produced from a number
of independent energy sources, that is, hydro,
fossil fuels, or the heat generated from
nuclear fission. It is electricity produced by
this last means that I would like to turn to
next and examine in some detail.

Advantages of Nuclear Power

In general, the future of nuclear electric
power looks bright indeed, but we who are
in this field know that we have many
obstacles to overcome and that much hard
work remains ahead of us to make the most
of the atom's great potential power.

When we look at the nuclear electrical pro-
duction throughout the world from the year
1950 to the turn of the centuiy, as seen in
figure 4, again we have a familiar pattern
of rapid exponential gi'o^vth. In this case,
because of the newness of this energy
source — nuclear generating capacity was
clearly zero in 1960 — the annual world\vide
electricity production cui've has been nor-
malized to the worldwide nuclear production
curve at the year 1970. It is genei'ally agreed



FIGURE 1



6000




WORLD POPULATION /


SOOO


^


y


4000


-


y^


3000


-


^^.^


2000


;


_^ — ^^"^


1000


-







1


— 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 1 1



that nuclear energy will take an ever-increas-
ing share of the electrical generating capacity
until the turn of the century. By that time,
it is predicted that essentially all new elec-
trical powerplants to be built will be nuclear
powerplants.

This then brings us to the importance of
nuclear power. As I indicated before, a
rapidly expanding global population, its
increasing appetite for energy, and the satis-
faction of an increasingly larger share of this
energy appetite by electricity make nuclear
electric power a key element in the future
well-being and progress of man.

Assuming continued improvements in
nuclear power technology, the building of
veiy large size plants, and the absence of cer-
tain financial restraints, nuclear power has
the potential for a significant reduction in
the cost of electricity. A reduction large
enough to cause rather dramatic changes in
energy utilization is foreseen by some. There
is no doubt that large-scale, low-cost sources
of energy will determine more than any other
single resource the availability and cost of
other basic resources such as food, water,
and industrial materials. With very low cost
power, desalted water would be a reality.
Our nitrogenous fertilizers and many of our
basic chemicals would be produced by new
routes and from raw materials such as water,
air, and coal. Electricity would widely be
used to reduce most ores to metals. The
world of tomorrow will certainly be far dif-
ferent from that of today if these promises
of very low cost nuclear power do come true.

There are, I might add, other obvious ad-



JANUARY 16, 1967



91



FIGURE 2



TOTAl ANNUAL WORLD-WIDE ENERGY CONSUMPTION




IV«0 2000



vantages to nuclear power today. It is a clean
source of power and does not add to the
burden of pollution in the air. It is relatively
independent of geography because of the
extreme compactness and long life of nuclear
fuels, and therefore nuclear powerplants can
be constructed far from their sources of raw
material — uranium and thorium ores — with-
out a significant economic penalty. And,
finally, it lends itself well toward generation
in large blocks of ix)wer so that enonnous,
very economical, central power stations can
be built.

Economic Requirements

But if nuclear energy is actually to be used
in this important role, it must be capable of
meeting at least two criteria. First, it must
be economic wherever it is used. Otherwise
nuclear power stations will not be built in any
significant numbers. Second, sufficient re-
serves of nuclear fuel must be available to
provide the enormous amounts of energy
which will be required, not only through the
year 2000 but also beyond, as our energy
consumption ever increases.

Recent Trends

Turning now to the present status of nu-
clear power in the world, let me point out
that the tyijes of reactors being constructed
today are being built for current and near-
term economic use, and their design does not
in general take into consideration the long-



term future resources of nuclear fuel. At
present this long-term concern is really not
a necessary condition of reactor construction
because nuclear energy represents but a
minor fraction of the annual global energy
consumption and uranium resources are
ample to meet near-term requirements.

As is generally known, the current reactor
types have achieved economical competitive-
ness — remarkably so in countries such as the
United States. In fact, in my tenure as
Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Com-
mission I have witnessed a remarkable evolu-
tion of nuclear power. When I first took office
the entire program was questioned on the
ground that the expenditures of vast sums
of public funds seemed to be for naught, that
nuclear power would not be economic for
several decades to come. Today I find some
people at the other extreme beginning to
question whether any additional government
funding of advanced nuclear power programs
is necessaiy, since so many nuclear power-
plants are being sold by the nuclear industiy
that the industry has reached the point of
being self-supporting. In the United States
alone, firm commitments for the construction
of nuclear powerplants went from 2 million
kilowatts in 1963-64 to 5 million kilowatts
in 1965 to 15 million kilowatts for the first
9 months of 1966. A similar increase in reac-
tor construction is expected to occur in other
countries.

In the United Kingdom, for example, the

FIGURE 3



ANNUAL WORLD-WIDE
ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION



WITH WORLD-WIDE ANNUAL TOTAL ENERGY
CONSUMPTION NORMALIZED AT 19S0




92



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



second nuclear power program, adopted in
1965, planned a program of 5 million kilo-
watts of nuclear generating capacity during
the period 1970-75. This program was in-
creased to 8 million kilowatts by the end of
1975.

The French civil program, as another ex-
ample, is the largest in continental Europe.
According to the French Government's "fifth
plan," the French foresee 2.5 million to 4
million kilowatts installed from 1966 to 1970
utilizing gas-cooled, graphite-moderated, and
natural-uranium-fueled plants of 500,000
kilowatts or more. At the present time, about
1 percent of France's electrical energy is of
nuclear origin; by 1970 it is expected to reach
5 percent and by 1975, 12 percent.

The installation of nuclear power in Japan
is expected to total from 4.3 million to 5.3
million kilowatts by 1975 and approximately
10 million kilowatts by 1980. Seven central
stations are in various stages of planning in
Japan, with two plants now operating.
Sweden also plans a long-range construction
program of six nuclear i)lants totaling 2.5
million kilowatts of power by 1978. In the
Federal Republic of Germany two plants are
now producing electricity, two are being
built, and plans are going forward on several
others. It is apparent that nuclear power will
have a rapid growth in Germany during the
next decade. Canada, India, Italy, Switzer-
land, and Spain also have substantial
nuclear power plans.

One of the reasons given for this abrupt
change in events has been the ability of the
electric producers to begin utilizing very
large blocks of electrical generation. As a re-
sult, it has become possible to take advantage
of the savings incurred through scaling
nuclear powerplants to very large sizes.

Uranium Prices

A fixed price of uranium equal to $8 per
pound of UsOg has been a general level which
has been attained through extensive national
and international procurement of uranium
ores over the past decade. Recently, prices a



FIGURE 4



ANNUAL WORLD-WIDE
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION



WITH ANNUAL WORID-WIDE

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

NORMALIZED AT 1970




H70 1980

YEARS



few dollars below the $8 level have been
negotiated due to the temporary surplus of
uranium ore supphes. However, if one views
this question of uranium ore resources from
a long-term viewpoint, the price will probably
slowly escalate as the higher grade ores are
consumed and as the general cost of labor
and materials increases. For the present
moment the figure of about $8 a pound of
UaOs is a fair and perhaps a somewhat con-
servative one not likely to change drastically
for the next decade.

What degree of urgency must be given to
increasing uranium prices ? This should have
a direct eff"ect on the future planning and pro-
grams leading to the development of ad-
vanced and improved reactors. As an
extreme, if the world could be assured that
from here to the turn of the century the
price for UaOs would remain at today's level,
there might be considerably less pressure
and urgency for the development through
government sponsorship of newer and more
efficient reactors. Nonetheless, there would
remain some important incentives for the
continued development of newer reactor
types which might promise to be more eco-
nomical than the current round of reactors.



JANUARY 16, 1967



93



FIGURE 5



URANIUM RESERVES

ESTIMATED WORLD TOTAL

(ULSR, CHINA AND lASTIRN lUIOPE NOT INCLUDiO)



lOO


E








15.000.000




-




MtUift INOICIItS
CtPtCIIT (Mat)
WHICH COUID If MtlNTIIHED
FOR )a T[«RS WITH THE
INOICtltD FUd


5.500,000


1


ID
1


J


}M.m


1,000.000

jilH


1


1



0-IS 0-30 0-50 0-100

COST OF URANIUM ORE - DOLLARS/LB.



In the United Kingdom this has been exempli-
fied in the progress from the magnox reac-
tors to the advanced gas-cooled reactors.

Uranium Reserves

To offer some appreciation of the time
scale which should lie factored into these
programmatic decisions, figure 5 shows the
known and estimated uranium resources.
These uranium resources are shown as mil-
lions of tons of UsOs as well as the I'elated
megawatts of nuclear generating caimbility.
The figures are based on the assumption of
sufficient fuel for a 30-year lifetime for
nuclear powerplants of the current light
water and advanced gas-cooled reactor types.
Combining the infoiTnation presented on this
chart with that on the earlier one (figure 4)
showing a very rapid exponential growth of
nuclear power generating capability, one can
predict that the known or estimated world-
wide ore resources costing $10 per pound or
less are sufficient to supply about 300,000
megawatts of nuclear generating capability,
which will be contracted for, with the conse-
quent commitment of the indicated amount
of uranium, by 1980. If one considers
uranium ore resources of $15 per pound or
less, the reserves, both known and estimated,
are sufficient to support power stations
generating about 550,000 megawatts of
nuclear power, a capacity which will be
reached by about the year 1985. Using
uranium ore resources of $30 per pound or



less, the reserves are sufficient for about 1
million megawatts of nuclear power, which
will be reached by about the year 1990. A
very important fact sho\\Ti by this chart
(figure 5) is that there are enormous re-
sources of uranium available if one is not
limited by cost of the ore.

I might also add a word of warning about
these figures. They do not reflect the in-
creased activity during the past months
toward new uranium exploration in the
United States, Canada, and elsewhere. They
represent the facts as we know them today.
I am certain, however, that additional ore
supplies will be found, in similar fashion to
the new fossil fuel resources found yearly,
and that this figure represents a conservative
view of things.

In addition to these resources of uranium
ere, vast quantities of thorium ore will be
found, quantities similar in magnitude to
that of the uranium ores. Thorium can also
be considered a nuclear energy resource al-
though it itself is not fissionable. Thorium-
232, the isotope of thorium found in these
ores, like the nonfissionable isotope uranium-
238 which is the very abundant isotope of
uranium found in nature, can be converted
to useful fissionable form by nuclear trans-
mutation. As you know, in the case of
uranium-238 the small fraction of the natu-
rally fissionable isotope uranium-235 pro-
vides the fission reaction neutrons which,
when captured by uranium-238, cause it to
undergo a transmutation eventually leading
to plutonium-239, an isotope which is fission-
able. Similarly, thorium-232 upon capturing
a neutron can be transmuted to uranium-233,
another fissionable isotope. Thus, plutonium-
239 and uranium-233 are the keys to unlock-
ing the vast energies stored in uranium-238
and thorium-232. Unfortunately, the current
reactor types do not take full advantage of
this situation.

We presently know that it is quite feasible
to increase the efficiency of utilization of our
uranium ore resources. The heavy water
moderated and cooled reactor and certain ad-
vanced reactors indicate one direction in



94



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



which to proceed. Increasing the thermal
efficiency of nuclear powerplants is another
direction.

Breeder Reactors

In general temis it appears readily possible
to more than double the energy which can be
extracted from a pound of uranium by going
to reactors with higher conversion ratios than
the currently available light water and ad-
vanced gas-cooled reactors. I refer to the near
breeders. The effect of this increased effi-
ciency is reflected in the fact that with the
installation of these near breeder reactors in
place of the current reactors the period of use
of the known uranium ore resources can be
extended for about a decade.

The actual effect of near breeder reactors
is even more dramatic since some of these
would utilize the thorium-uranium-233 fuel
cycle to supplement and replace the uranium-
plutomum-239 fuel cycle. But whatever fuel
cycle is in fact used, near breeder reactors
must provide improved nuclear efficiencies in
order to make a significant contribution.

There is an obvious incentive for getting
near or into a breeding regime. By breeding
I mean — as many of you know — a reactor
where more fissionable fuel is produced from
the fertile uranium-238 or thorium-232 than
is consumed in the fission chain reaction. If
one gets to a conversion or breeding ratio of
1.1 or greater, tremendous gains can be ob-
tained. Rather than utilizing only a few per-
cent of the energy present in the nuclear fuel,
more than 50 percent can be usefully har-
nessed. This fact also means that even
though the current reactors inefficiently uti-
lize the uranium and thorium fuels, these
fuels are not wasted. The large fraction of
uranium-238 and thorium-232 not consumed
in these reactors can serve eventually as fuel
for future breeder reactors.

This has an immediate compound effect.
Assuming one is able to build economic
breeder reactors, the nuclear generating
capacity capable of being ultimately fueled
with today's low-cost ore resources is greatly
increased. Second, the high efficiency of these
reactors means that they should be less sensi-



tive to increases in the future costs of nuclear
fuel.

Unfortunately, as we all know, govern-
ment life and service are not so simple as to



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