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understanding and control of our total physi-
cal environment. The United States is one of
several nations trying to chart that region,
and until it is mapped we cannot intelligently
choose our routes. In foreign affairs we pool
our knowledge of history, politics, economics,
science, and technology to arrive at new syn-
theses.

Science and technology are, in the United
States today, a part of the fabric of life itself.
We have, in the past 20 years, entered a new
phase of the great American adventure.
Throughout the world, technology and the
science which supports it have provided new
means of education, new sources of power,
new ways of processing data, and fast, reli-
able transportation and communication. Man
is extending his reach beyond this earth and
into the vast reaches of space. The new
knowledge and concepts, even the very tools
of the new technology, promise ever more
intensive investigations in the years ahead.
We have learned how to pool our resources
in coordinated efforts to develop new devices
and to exploit new fields. We are supporting
science and technology on a scale undreamed
of even two decades ago.

We are all familiar with the so-called cul-
ture gap between science and the humanities
and, more recently, with the "technological



' Keynote address made before the eighth annual
Panel on Science and Technology of the House Com-
mittee on Science and Astronautics on Jan. 24
(pressrelease 12).



gap" between the United States and Europe.
Last year Vice President Humphrey said to
this committee:

I think there is dang'er of another gap — a gap
between public policy and advancing science and
technology. It is in government that we must face
the task of closing that gap. ... It is only in re-
cent years that we have really understood the close
relationship between public policy at the govern-
mental level and science and technology.

In the interest of closing that gap, the De-
partment of State began a program at the
Foreign Service Institute in 1965 designed to
equip Foreign Service officers with some
competence to handle science as a part of
foreign affairs. For the most part, we se-
lected officers who will be assuming the for-
eign affairs burdens over the next decade.
We followed this with a program for the
exchange of officers with the scientific agen-
cies to provide direct experience in scientific
programs.

We have been holding a series of science
briefings and more informal "science lunch-
eons" for high-level Department officers. Our
last science briefing was on the implications
of the worldwide use of nuclear power. The
latest science luncheon was held yesterday,
and it was my pleasure to host this commit-
tee's distinguished guests from abroad. Dr.
Hornig [Donald F. Hornig, Special Assistant
to the President], who will speak to you to-
morrow, was also our guest at a recent
science luncheon; and our subject was the
impact of computers on society. I have found
these discussions with eminent men of science
to be invaluable.



238



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



For any American involved in public
affairs today, scientific literacy is a must; and
that is particularly so in foreign affairs. We
are firmly convinced that the Foreign Service
officer should be familiar with the ways, the
concepts, and the purposes of science. He
should understand the sources of our tech-
nological civilization. He should be able to
grasp the social and economic implications
of cuiTent scientific discoveries and engi-
neering accomplishments. I think it is
feasible for nonscientists to be, in the phrase
of H. G. Wells, "men of science" with real
awareness of this aspect of man's advance.

But the burden is not all on one side. Scien-
tists and engineers must, of course, recognize
very real progress in many fields outside
their own specialties, and they should be
conscious of the difference between the values
of society and the verifiable truths of the
natural sciences. For such men there is a role
in the foreign policy process. I think that
perhaps scientists have been a little more
willing to wade in the turbulent pond of for-
eign policy and that we in foreign affairs
must be more willing and better prepared to
dip in the waters of science. That science is
international in character has come to be re-
garded as a truism, but it is no more true
of science than it is of the humanities or the
social sciences. The larger truth is that bil-
lions must live together successfully on this
planet and that we are making common cause
in vast areas of human competence and
search for knowledge.

This committee has pioneered in equipping
men of public affairs to deal intelligently with
policies involving science and technology. As
a byproduct of that goal, scientists and
philosophers of science have also had their
horizons stretched, not only through presence
at these seminars — the committee's reports
are widely read. A valuable new channel has
been established between public affairs and
the scientific community with this committee
at the crossroads.

We have in the State Department a small
group of scientists and Foreign Service offi-
cers working with the science agencies and
with the scientific community on policies and



programs for international scientific and
technical cooperation. We do not administer
those programs, but we guide them and re-
tain the foreign policy decisions. The Depart-
ment's International Scientific and Techno-
logical Affairs Bureau has the resources of
the Government at its disposal in the United
States and a network of scientific attaches in
17 capitals on the other end. At some major
posts, our science agencies support their own
representatives to assist in specialized coop-
erative programs. It is not a question of pre-
paring to move in new dimensions; science
and technology are already important ele-
ments in our international relations and, in-
deed, have emerged as instruments of foreign
policy.

Scientific and Technological Forecasting

To some extent, we can extrapolate from
politics, economics, and science in projecting
future policy. In a way, science is the least
predictable of these three major fields. There
are few "breakthroughs" in politics and eco-
nomics; these are evolutionary fields. Broad
patterns, such as a United Nations Organiza-
tion, the rise of nationalism in Africa, and
the movement of Europe toward economic
integration, are discernible far in advance.
To a lesser degree this also holds for the
products of known technology. We foresee the
wide use of nuclear electric power and satel-
lite communications, and we can predict some
of the uses to which computer technology will
be put, for example.

However, we cannot foresee the break-
throughs in basic understandings to come.
Let me illustrate this point.

Thirty years ago President Roosevelt estab-
lished a blue-ribbon science committee to look
into "technological trends and their social
implications." The committee was accurate
in predicting increased development and use
of helicopters and conventional aircraft.
Autogiros and dirigibles were reported as on
the way out. The committee predicted color
television (and commercials), stereo FM
radio, our modern high-speed highway sys-
tem and urban traffic congestion. Air con-
ditioning, plastics, frozen foods, infrared



FEBRUARY 13, 1967



239



and radio air navigation, microfilm, and ac-
counting card machines were also predicted.
All of these extrapolations were based upon
then-known technology.

But where were the microcircuit, the com-
puter, radar and sonics, the jet engine and
rocketry, radioactivity, and underwater
breathing gases ? The top three scientific and
technical fields of major foreign policy in-
terest today were almost completely ignored
by that eminent committee. Space technology
or even rudimentary investigations of our
solar system were not mentioned. In oceanog-
raphy mention was made only of the pos-
sibility of extracting minerals from sea
water. In spite of predicted future needs for
oil, none of these experts considered the con-
tinental shelves as new sources. Investigation
of the sea as a source of fresh water, for
fish protein, or simply because of man's
native curiosity, was not considered. The sole
reference to the third area, nuclear energy,
was by a chemist of some vision, in these
words:

Much has been said and written about releasing
atomic energy and utilizing the vast forces that it
represents. While we see no immediate possibility of
doing this economically, who shall say that it will
not be achieved, and once achieved, how shall we
estimate the social implications resulting from the
use of such energy?

How indeed? This same man of vision ad-
vised that:

It is the unexpected turn, when some little detail
has been perfected after long search, that brings
such things to pass, just as occasionally a promis-
ing development must be dropped when some un-
expected defect develops. These are what make
prophecy difficult.

And so they do. The year after that report
was written, nuclear fission was discovered;
and in 4 years more the world's first nuclear
reactor reached criticality in Chicago, open-
ing the nuclear era. In our turn, we cannot
now predict if we will harness the thermo-
nuclear reaction nor would we be able to gage
its social and economic implications.

Nevertheless, an occasional look ahead is of
great value. Although the President's ad hoc
science committee back in 1937 did not fore-
see some major innovations soon to come, it



was fairly successful in predicting the future
uses of technical devices and methods then
known or just coming into use. The value of
this type of forecasting to policy judgments
is obvious. In most cases a true technological
innovation does not reach full bloom for some
years — the first basic patent on the transistor
was, after all, issued in 1930. Sometimes it
may be telegraphed in advance, as are the
new energy storage devices — but in these
cases the specifications for an end product
are set forth in the beginning; it is directed
research.

Congressman [Emilio Q.] Daddario re-
cently called for consideration of an "early
warning system" to apprise us of the poten-
tial dangers of certain technologies. If this
call is heeded, as I hope it is, we can be be1>
ter prepared to cope with the problems posed
by our advancing technology. The system
could perhaps even be extended to provide
useful forecasts for the foreseeable future. I
would think that a distinguished committee
drawn from the natural sciences, the social
sciences, and industry could be impaneled
about every 5 years to explore our techno-
logical future. This could satisfy the need for
expert opinion on the directions of science
and technology so far as it can be foreseen,
within acceptable time limits and without a
permanent "watchdog" group. After all,
technological forecasting is much more
sophisticated than it was in 1937, and we
should take advantage of the new techniques.

International Efforts Needed in Science

Although scientific prediction seems to me
to remain a chancy business, we can usefully
examine some aspects of the changing modem
environment which are of direct concern to
foreign affairs, many of which can only be
dealt with internationally.

The increasing pollution of our atmosphere,
particularly in large urban complexes, is of
common interest to the advanced nations. The
industrialization and urbanization of the de-
veloping nations will further contaminate the
atmosphere. An international cooperative
effort to cure our air, followed by interna-
tional conventions to keep it clean, would be



240



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



a long step toward meeting our responsibili-
ties to our own future.

Population pressures can be relieved by
means more civilized than war, disease, or
famine. Recent discoveries make possible
effective population control, and information
and assistance for family planning are widely
available. The barriers are those of convic-
tion and communication. The governments of
the world must first be convinced of the neces-
sity for a program of concerted and immedi-
ate action. They must act in time to prevent
the mass starvation predicted within the next
15 years. We shall need more food, but more
food is not the long-term solution. We must
continue development of better instrumen-
talities for population control; we need better
means for reaching billions of people; and
we must recognize that a crisis is at hand.
Changes in mores are in process in many
parts of the world, and the approach is be-
coming international. In the President's
words: ^ "Every member of the world com-
munity now bears a direct responsibility to
help bring our most basic human account
into balance."

The spread of nuclear power reactors re-
quires reliable and credible safeguards over
the use of nuclear fuels and equipment to
prevent their diversion to military uses.
The further prohferation of nuclear weap-
ons programs not only increases the hazard
to peace but diverts material and human
resources from more constructive goals. We
have a good beginning on effective inter-
national safeguards, but much remains to
be done. Some of the remaining tasks are
political and some are technical. We must
act in good faith and with resolution to try
to assure the world that the doorway to
nuclear warfare can be locked.

A cooperative assault on the treasure
chest of the seas would prevent the waste of
talent and money through unnecessary dupli-
cation.

The challenges of our space environment
require a truly international response. It



^ For excerpts from President Johnson's address
on the state of the Union, see Bulletin of Jan. 30,
1967, p. 158.



is already clear that there are benefits to
be derived from the use of space which are
worldwide in application. The agreement
last month on a draft treaty on the peace-
ful use of outer space ^ makes this a
propitious moment to consider again whether
we cannot respond even more effectively to
this challenge.

All of these possibilities for cooperative
programs with other nations call for an
advanced technology. But we have not for-
gotten our own growing pains.

Most of the world's population lives in
the developing nations, and not all of these
are making sufficient material progress.
There is an ever-widening gap between the
advanced and those struggling to keep their
heads above water. The advanced nations
must assist the developing countries in
building a base for technological competence.
We cannot overlay advanced technology on
an insufficient base. That base must first be
prepared through intelligent planning to-
ward rational goals.

Alliance of Natural and Social Sciences

Our world has acquired a new orientation
over the past 20 years. Science and tech-
nology are advancing the clock of civihza-
tion at an ever-increasing rate. Science has
become accustomed to its place at the fron-
tiers of man's knowledge. But we do not
forget the older frontiers where man meets
man, and we welcome the alliance of the
natural sciences with the social sciences in
meeting new facets of old problems in the
world laboratory.

The political significance of strong na-
tional programs in science and technology
expands steadily. Political-scientific areas
such as disarmament, nuclear safeguards,
ocean exploitation, space technology and
communications, and water management are
areas in which the natural and the social
sciences meet, and they offer major oppor-
tunities for international programs. Wider
use of forums such as this today to bring



' For background, see ibid., Dec. 26, 1966, p. 952,
and Jan. 9, 1967, p. 78.



FEBRUARY 13, 1967



241



the international problems of science and
technology before learned men from both
broad areas can assist in finding the solu-
tions.

As to our approach to this kind of inter-
national cooperation, my points were three.
We can make better use of new techniques
for technological forecasting as an input to
foreign policy judgments. New understand-
ings and mutual respect between the physi-
cal sciences and the social sciences are pre-
requisites if the gap between them is to be
completely closed. We must have programs
of international scientific and technical coop-
eration on two levels: with the advanced
nations in understanding and controlling the
total environment, and with those nations
in assisting the material progress of the de-
veloping nations.

Our future no longer stands in the wings.
Man's needs and his competence have both
reached dimensions which can no longer be
ignored. The scientific revolution has ar-
rived — ^live, and in color. We cannot clearly
foresee the advances, discoveries, and inno-
vations which lie ahead, but the uses to
which we put the new knowledge in our
human relationships may well be critical.

[At the conclusion of his prepared text, Secretary
Rusk made the following extemporaneous remarks.]

As the scientists put their minds to the
problems of the future, it is just as im-
portant that the social sciences and the
humanities do the same. The old notion that
somehow the future is not the business of
the humanities and the social sciences is
rapidly disappearing, because the other half
of our great universities is hurling us into
the future at a breathtaking pace. Unless
those who think about the problems of man
similarly address themselves to the future,
and not merely to some remote past nor to
the views spoken somewhere else at an
earlier stage, then we will have vast prob-
lems confronting us in the future. This joint
action among all groups, and here in this
committee between legislators and private
citizens, is indispensable if we are to move
ahead as rational human beings into this un-
charted future.



President-Elect of Brazil
Visits the United States

Artur da Costa e Silva, President-elect of
Brazil, made an informal visit to the United
States Janwary 18-31. He was received by
President Johnson and other U.S. Govern-
ment officials in Washington January 25-28.
Following is an exchange of toasts between
President Johnson and President-elect Costa
e Silva at a White House luncheon on Janu-
ary 26.



White House press release dated January 26

PRESIDENT JOHNSON

President-elect Costa e Silva, Madam
Costa e Silva, Excellencies, distinguished
guests: It is a good day for us when one of
our fellow Americans comes to visit us in
this house. It inspires us to feel again how
very much we have in common in this hemi-
sphere, how interdependent we really are,
and how very closely our destinies are woven
together.

We even try to bring the weather into Line
— so that a Washington winter day will not
be many degrees removed from a Brazilian
summer.

Very soon now, sir, you and I will have
even more to share. I mean, what our Presi-
dent Thomas Jeff'erson said, "the splendid
misery" of national leadership. After March
15 that mixture of splendor and miseiy will
be your daily fare, as it is mine.

You will know splendor as you work for a
more abundant life for your jDeople.

And you will certainly know misery as you
try hard to discover not only how to do what
is right but to discover what is really right.
The only certainty, Mr. President-elect, is
that you will have to act.

Fortunately for you and me, our countries
are blessed with great natural wealth. They
are blessed with confident and vigorous peo-
ple. We are big. We ai'e still growing. We can
still experiment. We can still make mistakes
and still survive.

The assurance that our people seek is not



242



DEPARTMENT OF STATE BULLETIN



that we make no mistakes but that we shall
really never tire of seeking education for our
children, better health for all of our families,
better housing for all of our people, and equal
justice for every man. They can tolerate hon-
est error, but they cannot abide indifference.

Mr. President-elect. I know the goals that
you seek for the good people of Brazil. For
our part, we here in America shall do all that
we can do to tiy to help you attain those
goals. The United States, today as in the
past, has much at stake in Brazil.

You were our comrades in the Second War.
I shall not forget that you were the first to
join us in helping the Dominican iieople re-
sist totalitarian rule — in making it possible
for them to freely choose their own destiny
instead of having it imposed upon them.
That, sir, was an act of res]X)nsible states-
manship for which every free nation of
America should be grateful.

Sir, we welcome you to this Capital and to
this house. Know that as geography has
made us neighbors, history and hope have
made us friends.

Our good and delightful friends who have
honored us with your presence today, I
should like to ask all of you to join with me
in a toast to His Excellency President-elect
Costa e Silva and to the great nation of
Brazil.

PRESIDENT-ELECT COSTA E SILVA

Mr. President: I would like to confess that
as a military man I may not be endowed
with your rhetorical skill and the practice
that has just been displayed by the illus-
trious man whom now I might call my
friend, the President of the United States.

Starting with the weather, we found out
today that here is a man who really
rules over the heavens. In my country when
we say that a man rules over the heavens,
that means that he is indeed a powerful man.

That expression applies very well to what
has happened here today as we are greeted
with an ideal spring day.

Therefore, I am indeed very grateful. I
must say that I am convinced, however, that



the magnificent day that we are enjoying
today is indeed the work of a Supreme Being
that reigns above all of us, be it nature, or
in my own belief it is the work of the Lord.

I want to say that throughout my trip all
over the world we have been blessed with a
great deal of luck and good fortune. I con-
sider that this fortime is really a harbinger
of better things to come. I envisage them in
a most favorable manner, and I envisage
them in a climate of very good fortune in my
forthcoming administration in the govern-
ment which I am about to assume.

I consider myself very fortunate to have
had this interval which was perhaps a mat-
ter of controversy. I mean this interval be-
tween my election and my forthcoming inau-
guration. This intei-val, this break, gave me
an unequaled opportunity to study, to look
into, and to endeavor to know the problems
not only of my country but also of the world.

Just a few moments ago, I received from
a really true statesman a magnificent lesson
in what lies ahead for me. Now I feel more
able to endure with equanimity and fortitude
that "splendid misery" to which you just
made a reference, Mr. President, and of
which I already have had a foretaste in the
3 years that have followed our revolution.

I am, therefore, most grateful to you, Mr.
President, because I have just heard a voice
of a man who carries on his shoulders a tre-
mendous responsibility, not only before this
greatest country of all but before the entire
world. I have received and heard your sug-
gestions and your voice, and I consider them
a most valuable contribution to my govern-
ment task that lies ahead.

I am convinced that I am going to endure
some suffering and some difficulties, as I
have already endured; but I am going to con-
tinue to do eveiything in my power to main-
tain in the people of my nation a certain
state of mind with regard to the United
States, so that together our two nations may
form and build a true barrier against those
who are trying to violate and subvert justice,
press, and freedom.

In my closing words, I want to say that
this luncheon and this meeting which were



FEBRUARY 13, 1967



243



of such an intimate and congenial nature
were also highlighted by your attitude of a
few moments ago, Mr. President, when you
greeted, one by one, the journalists of the
Brazilian press. I can assure you that
through that gesture you have endeared
yourself to the very heart of the Brazilian
people. I can also assure you that in our
press you are going to feel very shortly that
genuine warmth that you radiated, the
warmth of a kind man, a man who has a
genuine human feeling and a feeling which
is very close to ours.

Both of us have said, and we mean it, that
we want to give to our peoples better condi-
tions of life, more abundant food, more ade-
quate housing. Those are, as a matter of



Online LibraryUnited States. Dept. of State. Office of Public CoDepartment of State bulletin (Volume v. 56, Jan- Mar 1967) → online text (page 45 of 90)