Wladyslaw George Piskor.

Bibliographic survey of quantitative approaches to manpower planning online

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et al. (143) give an example of Interactive determination of hiring
using a GP model. References (51, 77, 96) deal with computer-assisted
selection while (159, 198, 200) provide bibliographic references. Job
specification and analysis is closely related to skills inventories.
The former attributes task requirements to a job whereas the latter
records the task availabilities of an individual. The US Manpower
Administration has prepared a descriptive and comparative review of
research and development of Job Analysis (205). Historically, job des-
criptions have been based on the subjective assessments of job analysts.
The development of functional job analysis (65) based on task structures
describing how cognitive resources are directed at data, interpersonal
skills at people, and physical resources at things offers a controlled
language format for capturing job content in a standardized fashion. In
recent years the USAF has been sponsoring a program of quantifiable task
analysis. Christal (42) presents an overview of the purpose, applic-
ations and progress of computerized task analysis embodied in the CODAP
(Computerized Occupational Data Analysis Program) software. Bottenberg
(21) provides a more detailed view of the operation of the system
explaining how overlaps between jobs are determined using task inventory
responses from the surveyed individual. The overlap criteria is then
used to cluster jobs into job or career hierarchies using CODAP.
Archer (6) illustrates with mathematical examples. The Chase Manhattan
BAnk (164) has developed a similar computer-based occupational data
retrieval system. Bibliographic references are available in (201) and
(42).



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As defined by Picur (157) the utilization OS is concerned with
means of icotivating and encouraging high performance. He goes on to say
that current interest largely centers on performance evaluation and sum-
marizes the majority of techniques used from Doiron (54): adjectival
rating scale; method of pair comparisons, graphic rating scale, critical
incident method, forced distribution method, man-to-man, free form
evaluation. Cangemi (30) cites several sources of error in personnel
evaluation: personal bias; central tendency - rater fails to adequately
discriminate levels of performance; halo effect - strong personal bias
towards individual results in similar ratings on all characteristics;
logical error. As a step towards decreasing these errors, Colvin (47)
suggests scaling the assessment by dividing the assessment value by the
group average. Weinberger (222) has implemented a software system based
on analysis of variance which monitors statistically significant devia-
tions in performance ratings in the CAF by classification and by geographic
location. Using correlational and multiple regression analysis Paul
(153) found predictive power in age, education and experience as measures
of performance.

Human resource accounting (66), human capital budgeting (191,
236), and cost-benefit analysis is the most intangible area of manpower
planning primarily because there exists little consensus on "what" and
"how" to measure variables. From the early work of Brummet et al. (23),
Lev and Schwartz (113) extend HRA to corporate financial statements and
Saden and Auerbach (166) pose a stochastic model for valuation. In des-
cribing the human resource planning process Walker (213) identifies
three primary approaches for estimating human resource value:



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"Accrued costs: An accounting approach based on historical

asset-costs/predicted-values, i.e., an organizational

systems approach that examines human facts in relation to

organizational performance.

Replacement value: a "market value" approach pioneered by

the insurance industry in the 1950s and 1960s.

Economic Value: a discounted present-value approach based

on projecting earnings of the individuals and/or other

pertinent variables."

He goes on to state that human resource planning is an evolutionary
process that should be geared to its requirements and capabilities.
Picur takes a more concrete stance by selecting specific items of con-
sideration. The search function encompasses the identification of
management talent, (3) perceived corporate needs, and distribution of
talent. A comprehensive survey of educational and training practices is
offered in (133) and Leese (107) is suggested as an interesting approach
to the scheduling of training. Patten (150) gives broad coverage to the
issue while Greenlaw and Smith (77) focus on management games, computer-
assisted instruction and the use of PERT in programmed instruction.
Lilien and Rao (117) record preliminary conclusions on a cost-benefit
model for recruitment with both stationary and quasi-stationary promotion
and attrition values.



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4.7 Trends and Issues

In projecting future trends in manpower information systems,
Picur (157) states that it is becoming generally accepted that manpower
planning and programming aspects consist of a two stage process in which
long-term requirements are forecast and reconciled with the short-term
supply (212, 227). Moreover, he foresees the integration (53) of man-
power information systems (strategic, tactical, and operational planning)
with other corporate functions (materials, finance, capital budgeting).
Indeed, it would seem that the OCMM effort to develop prototype dynamic
multi-level mixed (civilian/military) manpower systems is approaching
this threshold (39, 40, 75, 144). Reference (37) and (38) in particular
summarize the continuing saga to utilize GP methodology with embedded
Markov Chains and associated I/O models for strategic total force plan-
ning along with satellite sub-models of similar structure for tactical

12
decisions . While the computer problems and operations research

methodology seem to have been suitably addressed, it is the third main

discipline of manpower planning - behavioral science and organization

theory, that could be the deciding factor in this multi-level approach

that involves numerous participating decision-making units.

Although the behavioural aspects have not been stressed in
this bibliographic survey, several authors have reported work in this
area. Anderson and Emmerichs (5) use the System Dynamics (70) methodology



12

Although the work is not as well documented, it seems plausible to

assume that the other Armed Services are comparably advanced.



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to model aggregate behavioural interractions among acquisition, maintenance
and retirement policies as a result of policy cuts in military retirement
pay. Weber (219) utilizes simulation to study the interrelationships
between individual behaviour, personnel policy decisions, the labor
market and organizational environment. Miller and Haire (135) offer a
model to study small group dynamics in a working environment subject to
personnel policies, career opportunities, compensation schemes, and
authority relationships among others.

Although manpower planning has rapidly evolved into a maturing
discipline, it must continue to do so at an even greater pace it it is
to tackle the emerging issues confronting it. Burack and Walker (27)
dwell on the impact of new technologies, community and business respon-
sibilities, international operations, obsolescence and retraining,
employment opportunities for minorities and disadvantaged, and the
emancipation of women. The anticipated changes in the industrial rela-
tions scene are covered by Somers (183). Furthermore, the computer
revolution will continue to affect manpower planning through its new
implication for management (142), the growing number of databanks (223),
and the impact on individual rights to privacy (203). Finally, the
introduction of new harware technology along with distributed real-time
capabilities in an increasing "wired city" environment will simplify
data assimilation on the one hand, but at the same time, may threaten
the entire sociological and psychological underpinnings of manpower
planning as it exists today.



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While the recent explosive interest in manpower planning
literature would seem to suggest that its use is widespread, quite the
contrary is true. For the most part corporate manpower planning is
restricted to military and government agencies with some participation
by larger corporations. If the experience in the Canadian private sec-
tor cited by Eennet (17) is to be used as a yardstick of performance, a
high degree of cynicism and disappointment may well be warranted:



"But despite its rapid development, and wide acceptance, the
verdict must be that... it has been remarkably ineffective...
The Economic Council of Canada recently released a survey that
in effect says that most Canadian businesses have failed to
build even the fundamental elements of a workable manpower
planning process. In addition, from our experience as consul-
tants to large firms, we can verify that manpower planning
has generated much activity but few lating results."



He goes on to attribute three predominant causes for the state
of affairs:



"Manpower planning has been wrongly thought to be an exercise
in precision, contingent on the details of the long-term
business plans.

Management development has become a separate activity, whereas
it should be an integral part of manpower planning.

Planners ignore the basic criteria for successful implementation
(internal public relations, strong senior management commitment,
capable manpower planners, emphasis on demonstrating effective-
ness in the short-term as a prerequisite for continued and
sustained long-term evolution)."



Bennet concludes his sobering article with a somewhat jarring truism -
little hope can be held out for ameliorating the situation until the
business community itself is motivated to reassess the situation.



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5.0 SUMMARY

This paper represents an attempt to compile a bibliographic
survey of the vast literature on manpower modelling particularly at the
corporate level, and, as such, may be augmented by previous bibliographic
reviews in the US (39, 94, 174, 177, 182, 197, 200, 201, 202), UK (102,
114, 154), and Canada (229). Reference 102 in particular organizes its
review along functional technique categories with a brief annotated
explanation of each. Moreover, the U.S. Civil Service Commission pub-
lishes a monthly review of personnel literature (199) and quarterly
personnel management abstracts are available from the University of
Michigan (155) .

References 24, 124, 204 are recommended as a qualitative
primer for the uninitiated in the field. Burack and Walker (27) and
Greenlaw and Smith (77) provide a comprehensive non-technological treat-
ment. The annotated bibliographic review by Lewis (114) coupled with
the moderately technical coverage by Stainer (184) or Smith (181) are
offered as a promising combination; or, alternatively, the narrower
scope of 48 may be used with brief case studies (221) of manpower
planning in changing technologies. The mathematically sophisticated
reader will want to consider the NATO Science Committee series (45, 91,
179, 232) as well as (9) and books referenced by (7, 67). Ref. 178,
offers a state-of-the-art view of operational manpower planning in the
British Civil Service. Finally, a solid understanding of the OCMM (Office
of Civilian Manpower Management, U.S. Navy) work is available in 37, 38,
39 .



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BIBLIOGRAPHY



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13. Bartholomew D.J., "Stochastic Models and Their Applications:
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41. Charnes A., Cooper W.W. and Stedry A., "Static and Dynamic
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55. Drake R.I., Morgan J.R., Pilard J. and Quinn P., "A Career
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68. Forbes A.F., "Promotion and Recruitment Policies for the Control
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69. Forbes A.F., "Non-Parametric Methods of Estimating the
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83. Hartle D.G., The Employment Forecast Survey . Toronto: University
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